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Deberg_1990 · 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.

The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

Sandy Vagina · 11-23-2017, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

And why do you think they drafted Mahomes? If they made a good decision to get Smith, you must also trust they made the right decision to draft Mahomes.

They had nothing at QB2 on the roster. Smith is old, been playing longer than most (drafted at age 20).. and sports 2 shoulder surgeries, multiple concussions... and a hefty cap cost.

It was time to draft and develop a star. Typically smart teams do that before their current starter leaves. Especially wise to do with all the talk about Andy's complicated offensive scheme.

So, which 49ers' forum are you from?

chiefzilla1501 · 11-23-2017, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

And don't forget how pretty much everyone here wanted to fire Sutton. A couple games later now Smitty is the main problem with the team..

Flip-flop CP posters....

It's not a flip flop. Cp showered Alex with praise the first few games because he deserved it. They flip flopped because he's played like shit the last 5 games. And it's because he's resorting back to the game management bs we've been hating on for years.

**Rausch** · 11-23-2017, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

It's not a flip flop. Cp showered Alex with praise the first few games because he deserved it. They flip flopped because he's played like shit the last 5 games. And it's because he's resorting back to the game management bs we've been hating on for years.

Exactly.

I don't think it's just on him but his performance should be graded honestly...

Sandy Vagina · 11-23-2017, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

That "star" is a QB who's never played a down that we all admit needs, at MINIMUM, one season on the bench to learn.

A person who needs to sit and learn is, by definition, not currently "a star."

Okay, let's try this a different way.

When I put this part of this sentence in quotes. " "

- sticking stubbornly with "a poor QB despite having a star on the bench"?

It is not ME confirming my belief in the words. It is me quoting the general sentiment of others.

**Rausch** · 11-23-2017, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

Okay, let's try this a different way.

When I put this part of this sentence in quotes. " "

- sticking stubbornly with "a poor QB despite having a star on the bench"?

It is not ME confirming my belief in the words. It is me quoting the general sentiment of others.

It's still incredibly stupid.

A person who has never played is not a star.

Period.

Sandy Vagina · 11-23-2017, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

It's still incredibly stupid.

A person who has never played is not a star.

Period.

Well then, we ARE in agreement. I just don't understand how you did not earlier understand what I have since been trying to explain.

ILChief · 11-23-2017, 10:24 AM

The ceiling with Smith is third best team in the AFC. You can win the west, maybe beat Tennessee or Baltimore on a wild card game. As soon as you run into Pittsburgh or New England, game over.

**Rausch** · 11-23-2017, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

Well then, we ARE in agreement. I just don't understand how you did not earlier understand what I have since been trying to explain.

I still don't understand what you think you're trying to say.

I'm not being a jerk - I honestly don't get what you mean.

You essentially stated that Smith was a borderline talent as a starter (true) and that he should be benched for a "star" (not true.)

Talent, definitely. Improvement?

Unknown.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-23-2017, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

Doesn't seem right for you to go there. Getting to the playoffs does not count. Regular season wins.. getting to the playoffs.. doesn't count anymore.

You win SBs, or you **** right off. That has been the bar set for CP.

Rodgers, nor any of those QBs (minus Brady, maybe) have not accomplished their SBs without massive help from the others on the team.

If that is an incorrect sentence... then elaborate. Otherwise.. your overall post.. which compares Smith to the handful of best QBs of the League.. falls flat.

That wasn't the point of my statement. The point is that Rodgers takes the Packers to the playoffs every year with a roster that Smith would never take to the playoffs.

**Rausch** · 11-23-2017, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ILChief

The ceiling with Smith is third best team in the AFC. You can win the west, maybe beat Tennessee or Baltimore on a wild card game. As soon as you run into Pittsburgh or New England, game over.

Perfectly stated...

**ptlyon** · 11-23-2017, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ILChief

The ceiling with Smith is third best team in the AFC. You can win the west, maybe beat Tennessee or Baltimore on a wild card game. As soon as you run into Pittsburgh or New England, game over.

Or the 1 & 8 giants.

Sandy Vagina · 11-23-2017, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

I still don't understand what you think you're trying to say.

I'm not being a jerk - I honestly don't get what you mean.

You essentially stated that Smith was a borderline talent as a starter (true) and that he should be benched for a "star" (not true.)

Talent, definitely. Improvement?

Unknown.

Let me try this.

Let's talk about how " a QB's win-loss record is clearly the only way to judge a QB. "

Now look back at this sentence. ^

See the quotation marks? This means that I don't necessarily agree with the words inside the quotes.. but am using the quotes in reference to others that have used the words.

Same applies to the original back and forth between us.

I've tried to explain best I can. Have a Happy Turkey day.

**Rausch** · 11-23-2017, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ptlyon

Or the 1 & 8 giants.

Small sample size.

Every team we've beaten has a winning record.

Every team we've lost to has a losing record.

That tells me the coaching is where we fail...

**ptlyon** · 11-23-2017, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

Small sample size.

Every team we've beaten has a winning record.

Every team we've lost to has a losing record.

That tells me the coaching is where we fail...

We certainly do play down to others team's potential

**Rausch** · 11-23-2017, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

Let me try this.

Let's talk about how " a QB's win-loss record is clearly the only way to judge a QB. "

Now look back at this sentence. ^

See the quotation marks? This means that I don't necessarily agree with the words inside the quotes.. but am using the quotes in reference to others that have used the words.

Same applies to the original back and forth between us.

I've tried to explain best I can. Have a Happy Turkey day.

Fair enough. You as well.

11-21-2017, 04:16 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Deberg_1990's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx.	David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes" The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year. The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
Posts: 66,914

11-23-2017, 10:24 AM	#217
ILChief MVP ILChief's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2001	The ceiling with Smith is third best team in the AFC. You can win the west, maybe beat Tennessee or Baltimore on a wild card game. As soon as you run into Pittsburgh or New England, game over.
Posts: 11,476