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03-11-2020, 02:02 PM | #3991 |
"You like to drink?"
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: "I like to drink."
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lol at thinking we're anywhere near the bottom.
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Posts: 42,872
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03-11-2020, 02:13 PM | #3992 |
Indian Twitter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Free Agency
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I know but it's impossible to time so I'm good if the stocks I just bought go down that's when I'll add to those holdings. I can see a scenario where as warmer weather comes on the virus subsides and then as it becomes clear that Trump is going to be re-elected the market will run all the way back up to where it was and then pop 30,000 ….
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Posts: 15,015
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03-11-2020, 02:42 PM | #3993 |
MVP
Join Date: Jan 2015
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Curious where you guys feel the bottom is for the S&P and when?
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Posts: 6,243
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03-11-2020, 02:46 PM | #3994 |
NFL's #1 Ermines Fan
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: My house
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I'm sure I'm missing something here, but correct my logic. Let's say that this has a mortality rate of 1 percent or 3 percent or 6 percent. Isn't the long-term impact on the economy 1 or 3 or 6 percent? And we're down 20 percent in the market now?
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Posts: 141,617
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03-11-2020, 02:50 PM | #3995 |
"You like to drink?"
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: "I like to drink."
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Posts: 42,872
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03-11-2020, 02:57 PM | #3996 |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
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Posts: 278,540
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03-11-2020, 03:00 PM | #3997 |
"You like to drink?"
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: "I like to drink."
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Posts: 42,872
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03-11-2020, 03:03 PM | #3998 | |
MVP
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Helena, MT
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Quote:
More importantly, the market prices in anticipated future growth, and the factors are multiplicative over time. You would have to develop models assuming the loss of 1-3% production and consumption, plus the loss of production from quarantines and sick workers. Net present value of cash flows are drastically reduced given supply chain disruption, changes in consumer behavior and reduced growth forecasts. What is the difference in the net present value of an investment with an 8% return and a 5% return, all other things equal? Then factor in changes to profit margin, reduced volume due to supply chain reduction? It also makes overhead a much bigger deal, turning profitable companies unprofitable. The multiplicative nature of the factors leaves a lot of room for downward movement, Imo. But I am a pessimist by nature, so maybe factor that into your decision making process. |
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Posts: 18,566
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03-11-2020, 03:48 PM | #3999 |
2 Legit 2 Colquitt
Join Date: Sep 2010
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I have to stop checking my Robinhood account. It only goes up when I'm not looking at it.
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Posts: 4,708
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03-11-2020, 04:08 PM | #4000 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Scott City KS
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Quote:
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Posts: 56,896
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03-11-2020, 04:09 PM | #4001 |
Supporter
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Scott City KS
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Posts: 56,896
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03-11-2020, 04:14 PM | #4002 |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
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discuss thinks the market is his dick
it never goes up |
Posts: 278,540
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03-11-2020, 04:16 PM | #4003 |
"You like to drink?"
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: "I like to drink."
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Posts: 42,872
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03-11-2020, 04:24 PM | #4004 |
Andy Reid Supporter
Join Date: Apr 2012
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I think the bottom will be around the last week of this month or early April.
Depending on the effect it has here, I think it’s fair to say the drop will be around 30-35% |
Posts: 46,282
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03-11-2020, 04:28 PM | #4005 |
Elway be drinkin' again
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Colorado USA
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Posts: 4,655
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