***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Sure but his point still stands. We haven't topped 200k yet (That we know) at this time in H1N1 we had over a million in the world infected.

So it really break down to either China Virus is alot less deadly and more people have it than we know by a factor of 5. Or its not a easy to spread as H1N1 thus far.

Or, we would have much higher case numbers than we have without countries locking down.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by jjjayb

Fatality rates based on what? Known cases or estimated cases? We have no idea how many people actually have this now. Especially when you read reports that some people have it and don't even know they have it. That most cases are mild with some not showing any signs of having it. The more people that have this the lower the fatality rate. I think the number of people who have it or have had it is much higher than what is reported.

Exactly....... Or if you refuse to believe that you are admitting at this point of a pandemic H1N1 was more infectious

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Sure but his point still stands. We haven't topped 200k yet (That we know) at this time in H1N1 we had over a million in the world infected.

So it really break down to either China Virus is alot less deadly and more people have it than we know by a factor of 5. Or its not a easy to spread as H1N1 thus far.

I guess if the explanation that "these things are complex, and I trust the people who spend their entire lives studying these things over random people on the internet doing basic math with a calculator" doesn't cut it, I'm not sure there's a lot of middle ground to discuss.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by jjjayb

Fatality rates based on what? Known cases or estimated cases? We have no idea how many people actually have this now. Especially when you read reports that some people have it and don't even know they have it. That most cases are mild with some not showing any signs of having it. The more people that have this the lower the fatality rate. I think the number of people who have it or have had it is much higher than what is reported.

Yes, known cases and deaths. And yes, I'm aware that the true rate won't be known until this is over, and even then, it will still be an estimated.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

Or, we would have much higher case numbers than we have without countries locking down.

That is irrelevant to the point he is making.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Sure but his point still stands. We haven't topped 200k yet (That we know) at this time in H1N1 we had over a million in the world infected.

So it really break down to either China Virus is alot less deadly and more people have it than we know by a factor of 5. Or its not a easy to spread as H1N1 thus far.

1MM cases of H1N1 in the US in 72 days, not in the world.


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-timeline.html

The numbers were are being fed don't add up to a lockdown. It just doesn't.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I guess if the explanation that "these things are complex, and I trust the people who spend their entire lives studying these things over random people on the internet doing basic math with a calculator" doesn't cut it, I'm not sure there's a lot of middle ground to discuss.

Exactly

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I guess if the explanation that "these things are complex, and I trust the people who spend their entire lives studying these things over random people on the internet doing basic math with a calculator" doesn't cut it, I'm not sure there's a lot of middle ground to discuss.

I mean logically its their job to look at everything like its the end of the world. I'm of the group that said **** it we've lost control and panic has set in.


But I also believe the Economic harm will vastly outweigh the harm the virus will due by the end. (At least when it comes to us)

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

As I suspected you didn't read all the posts leading up to the convo you butted in on and started arguing numbers that are incorrect.

I guess I missed it. I'd actually like to see the figures. I suppose I'll do a search if you won't post them.

The numbers for H1N1 are known. The ones we have for SARS-CoV-2 come from epidemiologists and other medical professionals. Sorry, but you'll forgive me if I'll side with them versus your gut.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

That is irrelevant to the point he is making.

No, it isn't. At all.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

1MM cases of H1N1 in the US in 72 days, not in the world.


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-timeline.html

The numbers were are being fed don't add up to a lockdown. It just doesn't.

And did we lock down during H1N1?

[jjjayb]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, known cases and deaths. And yes, I'm aware that the true rate won't be known until this is over, and even then, it will still be an estimated.

Considering that most of the known cases are people that have been tested because they're sick enough to be hospitalized, the fatality rate is going to be very skewed to make it appear worse than what it is.

If you look at the number of deaths from the regular flu compared to just people who have tested positive for it you would think the flu had a 10% fatality rate. Of course, we know that's not true because they're are far far more people who get the flu that don't get tested. When we look at the mortality rate for the flu, that rate is based off of the estimated cases of the flu, which is in the millions. People actually tested is only in the hundreds of thousands.

I see no reason to think that this virus is any different.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

And did we lock down during H1N1?

Is it bad that I don't remember?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by jjjayb

Considering that most of the known cases are people that have been tested because they're sick enough to be hospitalized, the fatality rate is going to be very skewed to make it appear worse than what it is.

If you look at the number of deaths from the regular flu compared to just people who have tested positive for it you would think the flu had a 10% fatality rate. Of course, we know that's not true because they're are far far more people who get the flu that don't get tested. When we look at the mortality rate for the flu, that rate is based off of the estimated cases of the flu, which is in the millions. People actually tested is only in the hundreds of thousands.

I see no reason to think that this virus is any different.

Yes, I'm aware of all that, thanks.

[displacedinMN]

"Hawaii Five-0" and "Lost" actor Daniel Dae Kim revealed he tested positive for the Coronavirus in a 10-minute Instagram video. pic.twitter.com/QqcB2Ob8Aq

— Pop Crave (@PopCrave) March 19, 2020

How are all of these famous people getting this?? Just because they are around more people?