...

Deberg_1990 · 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.

The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

Dinny Bossa Nova · 12-30-2017, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrowbarMan

The ban can't start soon enough.

One mother****er posts a picture.

35 pages of argufyin' mother****ers.

It's gonna be epic.

Dinny

Best22 · 12-30-2017, 03:38 PM

Alex Smith is a game manager now that the defense has settled down

He started out as a game winner in weeks 1-8

Then as a game loser in weeks 9-12

Now a game manager in weeks 13-16

If the defense keeps playing well and the run game keeps going this is almost all we need. The yards are there. We just need more touchdowns in the red zone.

**jjchieffan** · 01-01-2018, 01:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

I think it's less credible to only focus on the one sample size that supports your position.

I've got the 3-game, 6-game and 8-game sample size supporting mine.

I guess you can hope and pray that outlier Alex returns, but that seems unlikely.

He seems more likely to give us an average game against the top defense in football.

And I've got the first 5 game, the last 4 game, and the 15 game season samples supporting my case. I'm not seeing how your sample sizes are more valid than mine. You are cherry picking the games that support your irrational hatred.

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 02:01 AM

Derek Carr was in the MVP conversation last year. He is the stud of the division. No offense but instant gratification is not the answer to replacing a seasoned veteran. From what I saw of Mahomes he looks like he has potential but he's not ready to start in the NFL and who knows he may never be ready.

He is too jumpy in the pocket and forces the ball in dangerous places.

PAChiefsGuy · 01-01-2018, 02:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Best22

Alex Smith is a game manager now that the defense has settled down

He started out as a game winner in weeks 1-8

Then as a game loser in weeks 9-12

Now a game manager in weeks 13-16

If the defense keeps playing well and the run game keeps going this is almost all we need. The yards are there. We just need more touchdowns in the red zone.

Smitty had a good season and led us to the playoffs and our first back-to-back AFC West Championships ever. Stop over-analyzing the season like you are a psychologist. He played great this year.

You're an idiot and a hater if you can't admit he had a great season..

staylor26 · 01-01-2018, 02:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Derek Carr was in the MVP conversation last year. He is the stud of the division. No offense but instant gratification is not the answer to replacing a seasoned veteran. From what I saw of Mahomes he looks like he has potential but he's not ready to start in the NFL and who knows he may never be ready.

He is too jumpy in the pocket and forces the ball in dangerous places.

What a ridiculously bad take

Chief Northman · 01-01-2018, 02:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Derek Carr was in the MVP conversation last year. He is the stud of the division. No offense but instant gratification is not the answer to replacing a seasoned veteran. From what I saw of Mahomes he looks like he has potential but he's not ready to start in the NFL and who knows he may never be ready.

He is too jumpy in the pocket and forces the ball in dangerous places.

Dude, do you even football?

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 02:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26

What a ridiculously bad take

Do you think if Aaron Rodgers had taken over the Packers even though Brett was still there that he'd be as good as he is? No one really knows but we do know he sat behind one of the greatest players of al time and has cemented himself as one of the best to ever play the game.

I'll give this young man the opportunity to learn the NFL. However, High School and College football does not compare.

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

Dude, do you even football?

Specifically talking physical traits Pat and Aarron Rodgers are strikingly similar but as far as the mental side yes Rodgers was farther ahead coming out of Cal. Rodgers thrives outside the pocket throwing unbelievable balls that's never been witnessed in the NFL. Mahomes has the same arm strength and ability in my opinion. Not saying Mahomes is any where near Rodgers game at this point (because he's not) but there's a lot of hope and optimism in KC. However.

Hope and optimism do not win games..in AFC west

OKchiefs · 01-01-2018, 02:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Derek Carr was in the MVP conversation last year. He is the stud of the division. No offense but instant gratification is not the answer to replacing a seasoned veteran. From what I saw of Mahomes he looks like he has potential but he's not ready to start in the NFL and who knows he may never be ready.

He is too jumpy in the pocket and forces the ball in dangerous places.

Dumbass

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 02:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

I am Dumbass

He's not even on the same tier as Alex Smith yet.

OKchiefs · 01-01-2018, 02:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

He's not even on the same tier as Alex Smith yet.

Not too hard to go one and done in the playoffs like Alex does.

**TimBone** · 01-01-2018, 02:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Again, too small a sample size, too greatly skewed by one game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Too large a sample size. Especially when it's obvious to all that version of Alex Smith hasn't returned.

Hahahahahahahahahaha.....JFC....if there is anyone, absolutely ANYONE, that still buys in to anything you have to say...this did ended that. This is lazy trolling.

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 02:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

Not too hard to go one and done in the playoffs like Alex does.

And I agree. However, give him another year at least or two (possibly) before expecting him to start. Smith is easily good enough to win a Superbowl this year.

**New World Order** · 01-01-2018, 03:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Derek Carr was in the MVP conversation last year. He is the stud of the division. No offense but instant gratification is not the answer to replacing a seasoned veteran. From what I saw of Mahomes he looks like he has potential but he's not ready to start in the NFL and who knows he may never be ready.

He is too jumpy in the pocket and forces the ball in dangerous places.

Forces the ball into dangerous places?

He had one bad decision where he lobbed the ball up into double coverage to Harris

That was it.

11-21-2017, 04:16 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Deberg_1990's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx.	David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes" The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year. The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
Posts: 66,914

12-30-2017, 03:38 PM	#347
Best22 MVP Best22's Avatar Join Date: May 2016 Location: World Boxing Champs	Alex Smith is a game manager now that the defense has settled down He started out as a game winner in weeks 1-8 Then as a game loser in weeks 9-12 Now a game manager in weeks 13-16 If the defense keeps playing well and the run game keeps going this is almost all we need. The yards are there. We just need more touchdowns in the red zone.
Posts: 5,917

01-01-2018, 02:01 AM	#349
Pueblo Chieftan Banned Join Date: Feb 2017 Location: Pueblo,CO	Derek Carr was in the MVP conversation last year. He is the stud of the division. No offense but instant gratification is not the answer to replacing a seasoned veteran. From what I saw of Mahomes he looks like he has potential but he's not ready to start in the NFL and who knows he may never be ready. He is too jumpy in the pocket and forces the ball in dangerous places.
Posts: 2,315	0 3