***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by lewdog

It’s too early to tell how a second wave may impact these places, do you agree?

And I’m still not sold on lasting immunity, so does reaching 20% infections really matter as far as a future second wave is concerned? Same scenario could happen in surge places again.

Looking at Italy for example, why are you not sold on long lasting immunity?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's not completely out of the question, but to me it's just a numbers game. There are probably hundreds (thousands?) of coronaviruses that make the jump from animals to humans every year, but they stop there because they're not ideal for human-to-human transmission. When one finally does, it seems very unlikely to be natural because it IS unlikely. That doesn't mean that it's definitely unnatural, though.

My understanding is they very very rarely, as in basically never, jump from animal to human and human to human in the same time frame which is what we are seeing here. I dont know that there is another example.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Looking at Italy for example, why are you not sold on long lasting immunity?

We haven’t had time to know if it’s long lasting. This only been going on for 4 months

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

We haven’t had time to know if it’s long lasting. This only been going on for 4 months

So how long do we need to wait?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

My understanding is they very very rarely, as in basically never, jump from animal to human and human to human in the same time frame which is what we are seeing here. I dont know that there is another example.

SARS-CoV-1

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by Pants

100%.

Again, I know it's dumb and I do not have enough knowledge and I'm sure it's just my anti-China bias.

It's just the more articles I read about this thing and when I go back and think about the way it was initially handled by China, that's where my mind goes.

I think it's sad there probably won't be any accountability or even investigation into that, because we like our cheap plastic stuff.

(not that they manufactured it, but covered it up for perhaps much longer than is currently known)

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Looking at Italy for example, why are you not sold on long lasting immunity?

Long lasting means what to you? This started in March and there are people becoming reinfected with symptoms a second time. It seems rare but can still happen. What makes someone else able to get reinfected and what gives me possible “lasting” immunity? We don’t know this answer and lasting immunity would be 12 months or more for my definition.

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Long lasting means what to you? This started in March and there are people becoming reinfected with symptoms a second time. It seems rare but can still happen. What makes someone else able to get reinfected and what gives me possible “lasting” immunity? We don’t know this answer and lasting immunity would be 12 months or more for my definition.

You're not going to get another 12 months of lockdowns. However one feels about that, people just aren't going to stand for it.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Long lasting means what to you? This started in March and there are people becoming reinfected with symptoms a second time. It seems rare but can still happen. What makes someone else able to get reinfected and what gives me possible “lasting” immunity? We don’t know this answer and lasting immunity would be 12 months or more for my definition.

I guess that it falls along the same questioning of why do some people get it and why do many people appear to have a resistance. If you buy into the possible 20% max infection rate concept.

[dirk digler]

So if MLB lasts only week, where they have unlimited money and testing how are schools going to make it?

[dlphg9]

Waiting for the COVID19, Influenza, Ebola, and AIDS orgy this fall that inevitably leads to a superbug that starts a zombie apocalypse. What a time to be alive!

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

So if MLB lasts only week, where they have unlimited money and testing how are schools going to make it?

Don't test.

No tests = no positives = no problems!

[Donger]

First Phase 3 vaccine trial in US starts: The first Phase 3 clinical trial of a coronavirus vaccine in the United States -- an investigational vaccine developed by the biotechnology company Moderna and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases -- began Monday. The trial, one of 25 clinical trials around the world, is expected to enroll about 30,000 adult volunteers and evaluates its safety and whether it can prevent symptomatic Covid-19 after two doses, among other outcomes.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Donger

First Phase 3 vaccine trial in US starts: The first Phase 3 clinical trial of a coronavirus vaccine in the United States -- an investigational vaccine developed by the biotechnology company Moderna and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases -- began Monday. The trial, one of 25 clinical trials around the world, is expected to enroll about 30,000 adult volunteers and evaluates its safety and whether it can prevent symptomatic Covid-19 after two doses, among other outcomes.

Isn’t phase 3 a 3 month deal? I believe they start the trial and have it go 4-5 weeks, do bloodwork for a week for all participants and then do the 2nd dose for that same process timeframe as the first.

Either way good news that we are making progress

[O.city]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Long lasting means what to you? This started in March and there are people becoming reinfected with symptoms a second time. It seems rare but can still happen. What makes someone else able to get reinfected and what gives me possible “lasting” immunity? We don’t know this answer and lasting immunity would be 12 months or more for my definition.

The reinfected thing appears pretty rare at this point.

It appears as if we have pretty solid immunity with T cells and antibodies so I’m hopeful