***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

5 days ago

�� “Your actions are jeopardizing public health.” – New Orleans Police as they clear crowds from Bourbon Street. #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/Q2T0M5WrcC

— Brantly Keiek (@BrantlyWx) March 16, 2020

last night

Only took the coach getting it to cause this I bet

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

With no wide spread testing, thats an irrelevant point in time.

I don't agree. Surely people being admitted are being tested, at least some of them.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Yeah, but you are focusing one one set of numbers with well-known inputs, and another with very poorly-known inputs, so the two don't really correlate.

I hope that the hospitalization rate for COVID-19 infection is far, far less than 20%. I hope it's less than 2%. But we don't yet know what it is. If it ends up being much higher than the flu, we're in serious trouble, especially as it looks like it might be much more infectious.

If, yes, if. So far, it hasn't gotten to that point. Let's hope it doesn't. In the meantime we have to focus on the actual numbers that are coming in and not react to what they might mean, maybe, later, if.

Trust me, our health system is prepping for the worst but that does not mean the worst is going to happen.

[O.city]

It’s shown to be sensitive to heat so if Mother Nature could help us out and turn the ****ing thermostat up that would help

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Originally Posted by petegz28

States reporting 0 new cases so far today:

Washington
New Jersey
Illinois
Florida
Georgia
Massachusetts
Colorado
Connecticut
Nevada
South Carolina
Minnesssota
Oregon
Utah
Alabama
Mississippi
Maine
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Oklahoma
Iowa
Vermont
New Mexico
South Dakota

This post will mean more to me at about 10 pm this evening...

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

I don't agree. Surely people being admitted are being tested, at least some of them.

He just wants to make any situation as bad as it could be for whatever reason. I, myself, choose to find a bit of solace in the fact that 90%of the testes workd wide have been negative. Most people who do get it will be fine and have to self-isolate at home. As with everything there is a bad side to it. Some people choose to focus on just the good. Some and a lot are choosing to focus on just the bad. I am trying to get some sort of perspective between both.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

This post will mean more to me at about 10 pm this evening...

What is so special about 10pm?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

He just wants to make any situation as bad as it could be for whatever reason. I, myself, choose to find a bit of solace in the fact that 90%of the testes workd wide have been negative. Most people who do get it will be fine and have to self-isolate at home. As with everything there is a bad side to it. Some people choose to focus on just the good. Some and a lot are choosing to focus on just the bad. I am trying to get some sort of perspective between both.

It's much more likely that the numbers haven't been updated yet.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

It’s shown to be sensitive to heat so if Mother Nature could help us out and turn the ****ing thermostat up that would help

That's the hope. Would be nice if it would quit going from 70 to 25 in a day too. That doesn't help at all for a variety of reasons in general.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by O.city

It’s shown to be sensitive to heat so if Mother Nature could help us out and turn the ****ing thermostat up that would help

Global warming says "Hold my beer".

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

It's much more likely that the numbers haven't been updated yet.

Based on what, Donger? This site has been one of the most accurate and up to date sites out there. Those numbers were as of 15:26 GMT.

This site has been far ahead of any media reports I have seen as well.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Based on what, Donger? This site has been one of the most accurate and up to date sites out there. Those numbers were as of 15:26 GMT.

This site has been far ahead of any media reports I have seen as well.

Because it's morning in the US.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Because it's morning in the US.

And? We've already seen reports out of states across the entire country, coast-coast.

You have no idea. If your argument is those numbers probably won't hold I will agree.

Otherwise you are just talking out of your ass at this point.

[Spott]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

So glad I went Thursday...

I’ve never been in a Costco in my life. Looks like that isn’t going to change.

[RINGLEADER]

It took me awhile to finally have this all connect in my head, and I wish someone would have laid it out like this early on to get people to stay inside. We are about to experience something horrible in NYC and the fear is it will be duplicated around the country because some people just aren’t getting it yet. I know this has been said but it isn’t the mortality rate or the groups being impacted or any of that. It’s the fact that hundred then thousands then tens of thousands are going to need hospitalization and there will be no beds or ventilators available:

Let me paint you a bleak picture...

The rate of infection will follow a standard equation governing the spread and other factors called the R-Naught.

Currently, with the exception of Asian countries that are taking draconian steps, we are seeing this doubling occur approximately every 2-3 days.

Currently we have around 5,000 per day in US.

2 days ago it was approximately 2,500.

2 days before that it was approximately 1,250.

It works the other way too - even with the limited social distancing slowing it:

In 4 days from now it will be 10,000.

4 days from then it will be 20,000 (we’re talking next weekend).

And so on.

This is if we did not shelter or develop “herd” immunity.

Herd immunity, as you all know, happens over time as more people are infected, become immune, and come into contact with fewer and fewer susceptible people who haven’t developed immunity.

So the spread will naturally slow over time.

And sheltering in place can slow down the rate of doubling. But this takes time to catch-up in the numbers since it can take a week or longer for the symptoms to manifest in new patients.

Why they are having everyone shelter in place is because 2 out of every 10 cases, on average, will require medical care at a hospital.

And on average 25% of those cases will need ventilators/life support to survive.

We have a limited number of beds and ICUs can be quickly overrun.

We’re seeing this in Italy at the moment.

Here’s where it gets scary:

In two weeks we will have the ICUs in NYC and possibly other major American cities filled.

But the spread of infection will continue to double (again, unless we are successful in sheltering in place and idiots aren’t going to beaches and out to parties) for a period of time before leveling off and hopefully falling.

What happens when the hospitals are full and can take no new patients?

Yet there are now 10,000 20,000 30,000 new infected each day?

And 5% of those require hospitalization to have a good chance to live?

We will have 500, 1,000, 1,500 or more people a day who need ventilators and critical care to deal with pneumonia and other ailments who simply won’t be able to get it.

And we will not have the beds, the equipment, or the staff to treat these sick people.

In Italy, where this is happening right now, people in this most dire group are being told to go home - many to die. Doctors and nurses are being forced to pick who gets a ventilator when one becomes available.

Some beds will become available but since the sick are sometimes on these machines for long periods the turnover isn’t great and capacity is reached quickly.

So unless we slow the rate of infection or the percentage of people who need hospitalization is reduced (which hasn’t happened quickly in other hot spots where the effects of staying home aren’t seen until weeks after it begins) you are going to be facing a reality in weeks where thousands of Americans are dying every day because the health care system is overrun. It will happen suddenly and it will be a shock to many who haven’t realized that this is why we are staying home.

As long as we are going out the spread will continue. Staying at home will slow it. Assembling more beds with more ventilators run by more medical professionals can mitigate it. But given that many of our doctors and nurses have no where near the level of protection that their Chinese counterparts had we are going to see the availability of doctors and nurses reduced as well as they get sick — further magnifying the problem.

The sheltering orders will stunt it, but we are now in a race against time that I fear we have already lost

Few seem to be feeling what is coming right now. Few seem to realize the math that’s involved and that the growing numbers of overall new cases will have around 20% of that total number requiring hospitalization to save their lives. Hospitalization that won’t be available in mere days and weeks in NYC.

Few seem to feel it. In two weeks it will be impossible not to feel it.