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**Buehler445** · 11-21-2018, 12:19 AM

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB

Spoiler!

Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR

Spoiler!

There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL

Spoiler!

That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush

Spoiler!

We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner

Spoiler!

I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.

**Buehler445** · 11-21-2018, 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcpasco

It would be like the Steelers not paying Brown and I think Hill is as good or even better. It’s just talent you aren’t gonna replace in the draft.

I agree. We can't replace the talent, but can we replace the production? I mean Albert Wilson is making less than half of $20M. If get 2 Albert Wilsons for 16, will they get to Reek's production with Mahomes?

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-21-2018, 01:04 AM

If a guy changes the game truly and has to be account for every play, I’d say you keep him.

Hill definitely falls under that category and Jones and Ford have so far this year. I’d keep Jones.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-21-2018, 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I agree. We can't replace the talent, but can we replace the production? I mean Albert Wilson is making less than half of $20M. If get 2 Albert Wilsons for 16, will they get to Reek's production with Mahomes?

You can’t replicate what Hill does. He has to be schemed for every play. Safety help. Off coverage. All kinds of shit, jet motion, option, you name it.

No one can do what he does. Sean Payton and Drew Brees even said he’s the most dangerous player in football just a week ago.

DRM08 · 11-21-2018, 01:05 AM

Tyreek is absolutely worth the money. Completely changes how DC’s call plays and how the defensive players behave on the field. This opens up things all over the field for other receivers.

**Buehler445** · 11-21-2018, 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

You’re highlighting some of KCs flops, and with the case of Berry and Houston it has been freak injuries (although I don’t think the book is fully written for those two’s legacy in KC).. but what about other teams?

Antonio Brown’s deal has been great for Pittsburgh. Aaron Donald is off to a hell of start, as well as Mack. Chandler Jones too. Belichick paid Gilmore a ton and it has paid off. There’s a ton of positive examples too.

I’m sure there’s a happy medium in there somewhere, but you can’t just let every star player walk out of fear that they’re going to have fluke injuries or whatever. Like Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel weren’t even very good players. We’re talking about Hill, Jones, etc. here.

Yeah, I follow. But I still can't get over how often these things DON'T work out. And if you are going to tell me that these guys are on shit teams so we shouldn't hold that against them, the same argument can be made for good teams. If Brown/Donald was on a shit team would they still produce?

LAR was getting pressure from a bunch of dudes not making Donald money and Rape gets production out of a bunch of dudes. I think Brown is a success story because they aren't as good when he's out.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-21-2018, 01:13 AM

I am glad you made this thread though because it’s a good time to discuss these things over the bye.

Personally, I don’t expect us to be active in FA really at all this year. I think Veach knows that he’s got a loaded roster that will require plenty of cap space to maintain, and his draft choice pool in 2019 is pretty solid. I don’t imagine he’s going to tie much guaranteed money into any UFAs from other teams knowing all of these big decisions that are coming ahead.

We’re going to build through the draft, but unlike the Packers (who have tried to do that despite a lack of overall strong roster talent), we already have the star talent on the roster to reload cost efficiently.

kcpasco · 11-21-2018, 01:13 AM

As much as I love Mahomes and want to declare him the messiah, he’s not this good without Tyreek. Pay Hill his money and let’s fix this defensive secondary before we need to make Pat the highest player ever.

**Buehler445** · 11-21-2018, 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

You can’t replicate what Hill does. He has to be schemed for every play. Safety help. Off coverage. All kinds of shit, jet motion, option, you name it.

No one can do what he does. Sean Payton and Drew Brees even said he’s the most dangerous player in football just a week ago.

Yeah, I'm with you, but there are lots of good offenses that operate without a dude like Hill (Because there aren't any). But the question was can you replace the production? And I get that it is isn't just catches, it's getting other dudes open.

I'm not necessarily opposed to paying him, It's just going to really strap our cap and if there is and injury, like there often is for explosive speed guys, man we are ****ed. Again. Like usual. I just think we need to be open to letting him walk.

TwistedChief · 11-21-2018, 03:52 AM

Realistically we don't need to make each and every one of these decisions at the same time. They're likely going to be staggered and we have draft capital to plug some holes so it's not as daunting as it sounds.

That said, the thought of watching Tyreek Hill on any other team in the NFL makes me want to vomit. He makes so many other parts of our offense more effective that his individual stats might underrepresent his contribution as much as any player in the NFL (if that's even possible looking at a 1600yd season). I was always a huge Percy Harvin fan as he was the most explosive football player I had ever seen, but Hill runs circles around him. Pay the man his money.

Brooklyn · 11-21-2018, 05:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I agree. We can't replace the talent, but can we replace the production? I mean Albert Wilson is making less than half of $20M. If get 2 Albert Wilsons for 16, will they get to Reek's production with Mahomes?

Two nickels don’t equal a dime. Pay hill.

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O.city · 11-21-2018, 07:15 AM

I was gonna day just that Buehler. 4 quarters don’t always equal a dollar.

It’s tough but some guys you can’t replace

Why Not? · 11-21-2018, 07:17 AM

You pay Hill. Period. If he gets hurt, you shake your head and hope your stud QB can help elevate the practice squad guy that gets called up but, under no circumstance should Tyreek Hill play a snap for another team until he is past 30, at the least.

Amnorix · 11-21-2018, 07:58 AM

I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

kccrow · 11-21-2018, 08:00 AM

I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them.

Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed.

If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants.

So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim.

Red Dawg · 11-21-2018, 08:05 AM

Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.

11-21-2018, 12:19 AM
Buehler445 Supporter Buehler445's Avatar Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Scott City KS	Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts. I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com. RB Spoiler! Todd Gurley 5 years $57.5M ($14.375M avg) $21.95M Guaranteed. David Johnson 3 years $39M ($13 avg) $24.69M Guaranteed Devonta Freeman 5 years $41.25M ($8.25M avg) $18.3 Guaranteed LeSean McCoy 5 years $40.05M ($8.01M avg) $18.25 Guaranteed Saquon Barkley 5 years $31.2 M (7.8M avg) $31.2 Guaranteed (pending option) Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck. WR Spoiler! OBJ 5 years $90M ($18M avg) $40.96M Guaranteed Antonio Brown 4 years $68M ($17M avg) $19M Guaranteed Mike Evans 5 years $82M ($16.5M avg) $38.3M Guaranteed DeAndre Hopkins 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $36.5M Guaranteed Brandin Cooks 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $20.46M Guaranteed There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know. DL Spoiler! Aaron Donald 6 years $135M ($22.5M avg) $50M Guaranteed Ezekiel Ansah 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise) Demarcus Lawrence 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise) Fletcher Cox 6 years $102.6M ($17.1M avg) $36.3M Guaranteed JJ Watt 7 years $100M ($16.7M avg) $20.9M Guaranteed That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there. Pass Rush Spoiler! Khalil Mack 6 years $141M ($23.5M avg) $60M Guaranteed Von Miller 5 years $114M (19.1M avg) $42M Guaranteed (** Donk Forever) Oliver Vernon 4 years $85M ($17M avg) $40M Guaranteed Justin Houston 5 years $101M ($16.8M avg) $32.5M Guaranteed Chandler Jones 4 Years $82.5M ($16.5M avg) $31M Guaranteed. We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another motherer who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes. Corner Spoiler!** Josh Norman 5 Years $75M ($15M avg) $36.5M Guaranteed. Trumaine Johnson 5 Years $72.5M ($14.5M avg) $34M Guarnteed. Xavier Rhodes 5 years $70.1M (14M avg) $20M Guaranteed Patrick Peterson 5 years $70M (14M avg) $16.5M Guaranteed Kyle Fuller 4 years $56M ($14M avg) $18M Guaranteed I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good. I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it. That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap. My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.
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11-21-2018, 01:04 AM	#17
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS pugsnotdrugs19's Avatar Join Date: Aug 2013	If a guy changes the game truly and has to be account for every play, I’d say you keep him. Hill definitely falls under that category and Jones and Ford have so far this year. I’d keep Jones.
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11-21-2018, 01:05 AM	#19
DRM08 MVP DRM08's Avatar Join Date: Apr 2017 Location: Texas	Tyreek is absolutely worth the money. Completely changes how DC’s call plays and how the defensive players behave on the field. This opens up things all over the field for other receivers.
Posts: 17,025

11-21-2018, 01:13 AM	#21
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS pugsnotdrugs19's Avatar Join Date: Aug 2013	I am glad you made this thread though because it’s a good time to discuss these things over the bye. Personally, I don’t expect us to be active in FA really at all this year. I think Veach knows that he’s got a loaded roster that will require plenty of cap space to maintain, and his draft choice pool in 2019 is pretty solid. I don’t imagine he’s going to tie much guaranteed money into any UFAs from other teams knowing all of these big decisions that are coming ahead. We’re going to build through the draft, but unlike the Packers (who have tried to do that despite a lack of overall strong roster talent), we already have the star talent on the roster to reload cost efficiently.
Posts: 26,342	1 0

11-21-2018, 01:13 AM	#22
kcpasco MVP Join Date: Sep 2007	As much as I love Mahomes and want to declare him the messiah, he’s not this good without Tyreek. Pay Hill his money and let’s fix this defensive secondary before we need to make Pat the highest player ever.
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11-21-2018, 03:52 AM	#24
TwistedChief Why so serious? TwistedChief's Avatar Join Date: Dec 2016 Location: Chicago	Realistically we don't need to make each and every one of these decisions at the same time. They're likely going to be staggered and we have draft capital to plug some holes so it's not as daunting as it sounds. That said, the thought of watching Tyreek Hill on any other team in the NFL makes me want to vomit. He makes so many other parts of our offense more effective that his individual stats might underrepresent his contribution as much as any player in the NFL (if that's even possible looking at a 1600yd season). I was always a huge Percy Harvin fan as he was the most explosive football player I had ever seen, but Hill runs circles around him. Pay the man his money.
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11-21-2018, 07:15 AM	#26
O.city In Search of a Life O.city's Avatar Join Date: Jul 2009	I was gonna day just that Buehler. 4 quarters don’t always equal a dollar. It’s tough but some guys you can’t replace
Posts: 81,236

11-21-2018, 07:17 AM	#27
Why Not? In Search of a Life Why Not?'s Avatar Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Kansas	You pay Hill. Period. If he gets hurt, you shake your head and hope your stud QB can help elevate the practice squad guy that gets called up but, under no circumstance should Tyreek Hill play a snap for another team until he is past 30, at the least.
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11-21-2018, 07:58 AM	#28
Amnorix In BB I trust Amnorix's Avatar Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass.	I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts. So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878 Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal. Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million. https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878 I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible. Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything. Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.
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11-21-2018, 08:00 AM	#29
kccrow MVP kccrow's Avatar Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan	I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them. Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed. If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants. So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim.
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11-21-2018, 08:05 AM	#30
Red Dawg Going home eventually Red Dawg's Avatar Join Date: Dec 2002	Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.
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