Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts

[Buehler445]

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB

Spoiler!

Todd Gurley 5 years $57.5M ($14.375M avg) $21.95M Guaranteed.
David Johnson 3 years $39M ($13 avg) $24.69M Guaranteed
Devonta Freeman 5 years $41.25M ($8.25M avg) $18.3 Guaranteed
LeSean McCoy 5 years $40.05M ($8.01M avg) $18.25 Guaranteed
Saquon Barkley 5 years $31.2 M (7.8M avg) $31.2 Guaranteed (pending option)

Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR

Spoiler!

OBJ 5 years $90M ($18M avg) $40.96M Guaranteed
Antonio Brown 4 years $68M ($17M avg) $19M Guaranteed
Mike Evans 5 years $82M ($16.5M avg) $38.3M Guaranteed
DeAndre Hopkins 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $36.5M Guaranteed
Brandin Cooks 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $20.46M Guaranteed

There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL

Spoiler!

Aaron Donald 6 years $135M ($22.5M avg) $50M Guaranteed
Ezekiel Ansah 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise)
Demarcus Lawrence 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise)
Fletcher Cox 6 years $102.6M ($17.1M avg) $36.3M Guaranteed
JJ Watt 7 years $100M ($16.7M avg) $20.9M Guaranteed

That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush

Spoiler!

Khalil Mack 6 years $141M ($23.5M avg) $60M Guaranteed
Von Miller 5 years $114M (19.1M avg) $42M Guaranteed (**** Donk Forever)
Oliver Vernon 4 years $85M ($17M avg) $40M Guaranteed
Justin Houston 5 years $101M ($16.8M avg) $32.5M Guaranteed
Chandler Jones 4 Years $82.5M ($16.5M avg) $31M Guaranteed.

We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner

Spoiler!

Josh Norman 5 Years $75M ($15M avg) $36.5M Guaranteed.
Trumaine Johnson 5 Years $72.5M ($14.5M avg) $34M Guarnteed.
Xavier Rhodes 5 years $70.1M (14M avg) $20M Guaranteed
Patrick Peterson 5 years $70M (14M avg) $16.5M Guaranteed
Kyle Fuller 4 years $56M ($14M avg) $18M Guaranteed

I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Chris Jones is one of the most valuable assets in the league. Only Aaron Donald and JJ Watt are better rushers from the interior (Watt plays that role frequently).

I would offer him an $80 million contract. After the 2 listed above making $100+ million, guys like Tuitt and Casey make $60 million. Maybe something a little higher than Danielle Hunter’s contract.

I think the Chiefs need to follow this structure:

Checklist for building a roster in today's NFL
Role/Number of players
QB (1)
Pass rusher (2)
Off Playmaker (3)
Def Playmaker (3)
Quality OL (3)

That's where I'd start. Once you fill those 12 spots, you'll have an outstanding foundation.

We'll discuss on today's MTS Podcast

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) November 20, 2018

This is going to be a very good defensive class. I’d go for a good pass rusher and DB that is a ball hawk. Then the Peters pick can be used for an offensive weapon or OL if need be.

Only Donald and Watt? I don't know about that. Gino Atkins, Calais Campbell, and Cameron Heyward are right there too. There are others that haven't had the sack totals of late but anyhow, Jones has definitely grown into that class of guys. I just did my new mock extending him at 5/85 so I do agree he's in that upper echelon and the Chiefs need to extend him this offseason.

Edit: As for Jeremiah's list, that's a fairly vague listing. I think you need to have 1 good interior rusher and 1 good edge rusher if that's what he's classifying as "pass rushers." I don't get hung up there, but 3 defensive playmakers is asking for quite a bit. If you can get a playmaker at safety, a playmaker at corner, and a good 3-down linebacker, then I'd agree with what he says there. I think you need a guy at every level of the defense so that you can dictate a little where teams will have to go. Offensively, I doubt you're going to get a team with 3 playmakers that often. That pretty much means you need KC's offense. A great WR, a great TE, and a great RB to go with a great QB isn't going to happen for most teams. You try to get there, but it's tough to get all 4 at the same time. 3 good O-line doesn't really specify much. Can you have 2 shitty tackles and 3 stud interior lineman? Don't know if that'll work. You almost have to have a good tackle, a good guard, and a good center if you want to mask deficiencies.

[WhiteWhale]

I think it's a pretty shallow to evaluate it this way. Every situation is pretty unique and winning is about more than one guy. Unless that guy is a QB. They can produce a lot of extra wins. Teams also have more than enough cap space to pay more than ONE guy.

Next in line is quality pass rushers (from any position). The chandler jones example is atrocious. Nobody is winning with an offense producing like that. Sorry.

Every situation is unique though. I'm dumping a truck load of bills on Tyreek's back door to keep him paired with Mahomes.

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Only Donald and Watt? I don't know about that. Gino Atkins, Calais Campbell, and Cameron Heyward are right there too. There are others that haven't had the sack totals of late but anyhow, Jones has definitely grown into that class of guys. I just did my new mock extending him at 5/85 so I do agree he's in that upper echelon and the Chiefs need to extend him this offseason.

Edit: As for Jeremiah's list, that's a fairly vague listing. I think you need to have 1 good interior rusher and 1 good edge rusher if that's what he's classifying as "pass rushers." I don't get hung up there, but 3 defensive playmakers is asking for quite a bit. If you can get a playmaker at safety, a playmaker at corner, and a good 3-down linebacker, then I'd agree with what he says there. I think you need a guy at every level of the defense so that you can dictate a little where teams will have to go. Offensively, I doubt you're going to get a team with 3 playmakers that often. That pretty much means you need KC's offense. A great WR, a great TE, and a great RB to go with a great QB isn't going to happen for most teams. You try to get there, but it's tough to get all 4 at the same time. 3 good O-line doesn't really specify much. Can you have 2 shitty tackles and 3 stud interior lineman? Don't know if that'll work. You almost have to have a good tackle, a good guard, and a good center if you want to mask deficiencies.

Why does Campbell always get called a DT when he's always listed at LDE?

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

Why does Campbell always get called a DT when he's always listed at LDE?

Because the Jags run a 4-3 Under just like Seattle and it's essentially the same thing as a 3-4. He plays more inside at 5-tech and 3-tech more so than a traditional 4-3 end would. He also played most of his career as a DE in a 3-4 in Arizona, same as Jones. He's talking in terms of interior rushers and not so much edge guys. Campbell doesn't play out in a 7 or wide 9.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Go ahead and take one minute out of your time watch Chris Jones absolutely destroying linemen, QBs, and RBs in the last month or two. This guy is becoming a dominant player.

https://twitter.com/realmnchiefsfan/...175489024?s=21

My God look at Breeland Speaks at 27 seconds. That guy is strong as hell

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

It’s going to be really sad if/when we have to let Kareem walk.

It won't be as bad as you think. We will have gotten his best years from him. And by then we will have already gotten his replacement waiting in the wings.

[Buehler445]

Bump for the offseason.