Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts

[Buehler445]

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB

Spoiler!

Todd Gurley 5 years $57.5M ($14.375M avg) $21.95M Guaranteed.
David Johnson 3 years $39M ($13 avg) $24.69M Guaranteed
Devonta Freeman 5 years $41.25M ($8.25M avg) $18.3 Guaranteed
LeSean McCoy 5 years $40.05M ($8.01M avg) $18.25 Guaranteed
Saquon Barkley 5 years $31.2 M (7.8M avg) $31.2 Guaranteed (pending option)

Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR

Spoiler!

OBJ 5 years $90M ($18M avg) $40.96M Guaranteed
Antonio Brown 4 years $68M ($17M avg) $19M Guaranteed
Mike Evans 5 years $82M ($16.5M avg) $38.3M Guaranteed
DeAndre Hopkins 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $36.5M Guaranteed
Brandin Cooks 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $20.46M Guaranteed

There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL

Spoiler!

Aaron Donald 6 years $135M ($22.5M avg) $50M Guaranteed
Ezekiel Ansah 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise)
Demarcus Lawrence 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise)
Fletcher Cox 6 years $102.6M ($17.1M avg) $36.3M Guaranteed
JJ Watt 7 years $100M ($16.7M avg) $20.9M Guaranteed

That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush

Spoiler!

Khalil Mack 6 years $141M ($23.5M avg) $60M Guaranteed
Von Miller 5 years $114M (19.1M avg) $42M Guaranteed (**** Donk Forever)
Oliver Vernon 4 years $85M ($17M avg) $40M Guaranteed
Justin Houston 5 years $101M ($16.8M avg) $32.5M Guaranteed
Chandler Jones 4 Years $82.5M ($16.5M avg) $31M Guaranteed.

We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner

Spoiler!

Josh Norman 5 Years $75M ($15M avg) $36.5M Guaranteed.
Trumaine Johnson 5 Years $72.5M ($14.5M avg) $34M Guarnteed.
Xavier Rhodes 5 years $70.1M (14M avg) $20M Guaranteed
Patrick Peterson 5 years $70M (14M avg) $16.5M Guaranteed
Kyle Fuller 4 years $56M ($14M avg) $18M Guaranteed

I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.

[Flying High D]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

So is OBJ. And they have 2 mother****ing wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really ****ing special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a hamstring pull Haglund deformity away from $20M per on the bench.

FYP

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by kcpasco

2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.

We have two more years of Hunt, then he's going somewhere else. We cant pay him.

As long as he doesn't have an injury that would lessen his speed, agreed, Hill is a must sign. Biggest WR contract ever. Following year, Mahomes gets the biggest QB contract ever. We will just have to make do with the Conleys of the NFL, just like Brady had to for most of his years.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Red Dawg

Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.

Core of Hill/Hunt/Kelce/Mahomes is locked in for 2019 and 2020. Watkins is only for 2019.

[RunKC]

Beuhler, I get what you’re saying, but I’m with pugs here. These guys won’t take middling contracts.

If we let all or even 90% of them walk, that would put a tremendous amount of stress on Veach to replace them, which is impossible seeing that they all are FA’s around the same time.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

We have two more years of Hunt, then he's going somewhere else. We cant pay him.

As long as he doesn't have an injury that would lessen his speed, agreed, Hill is a must sign. Biggest WR contract ever. Folloeing year, Mahomes gets the biggest QB contract ever. We will just have to make do with the Conleys of the NFL, just like Brady has to for most of his years.

Mahomes will never play with better playmakers than he has right now but I don’t think it will ever be a bad group necessarily. Even with NE, Tom has always had a few good pass catchers as long as they didn’t get hurt.

Idk, I like Veach and even though he hasn’t been perfect (no GM is), I love that he seems to be so methodical and detailed. I think he eats, sleeps, and breathes stuff like this that we’re talking about. I think he is a great talent evaluator, and a guy who has an ever evolving plan at all times. Wbf with he and Reid leading the charge.

[Marcellus]

We can afford to pay Hill and Mahomes and one defensive guy.

I mean you do have to pay someone and the argument to not pay Hill is INSANE, he is as rare a talent as Mahomes.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Mahomes will never play with better playmakers than he has right now

I've said all year that our shit defense is going to bite us in the ass in the post season at some point. Maybe Mahomes can overcome that shit defense just like he almost did on Monday.

We are going to cut or modify the contracts of Barry and Houston. We will have some cap money to buy us some defensive help. We have 2 2nd's and a 1st to get some defensive help in the draft.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I've said all year that our shit defense is going to bite us in the ass in the post season at some point. Maybe Mahomes can overcome that shit defense just like he almost did on Monday.

We are going to cut or modify the contracts of Barry and Houston. We will have some cap money to buy us some defensive help. We have 2 2nd's and a 1st to get some defensive help in the draft.

That’s the beautiful thing about where we are right now. We’re likely going to see the Chiefs built to win in several different ways around Mahomes, and we’ll just see what works best. Right now it’s elite offense around him with a study front four, in 4-5 years it might be lobsided toward defense altogether, or maybe they end up with a balance of just good on both sides of the ball. That cap money is going to be spread somehow around Mahomes and I don’t know where, but I don’t expect us to be far from the cap ceiling ever.

[shitgoose]

The case for Hill is that he hasn't even fully tapped his potential as a WR. Plus, I've never seen a guy who can sustain the level of play that he does for an entire game. His conditioning is remarkable.

[Buehler445]

Yeah. I said in the OP the WR group is the one that looked the most promising. And Hill is probably the guy that is the most likely to be a legit elite talent not a flash in the pan.

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

Coincidentally Belichick hasn’t paid WRs top money as far as I know. Moss and Stalworth were on criminally small contracts and the short white guy crew isn’t making big money.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them.

Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed.

If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants.

So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim.

Good post. Hadn’t seen those numbers on pass rush before.

[wazu]

Hill absolutely cannot be let go while he’s still in his twenties. He and Mahomes will get deals making them highest paid at their positions in league history. After that do what you can do, and draft well.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Beuhler, I get what you’re saying, but I’m with pugs here. These guys won’t take middling contracts.

If we let all or even 90% of them walk, that would put a tremendous amount of stress on Veach to replace them, which is impossible seeing that they all are FA’s around the same time.

Agreed. That’s what I’m saying is those guys might need to walk. But Veach is under a bunch of stress now to find dudes that can play with no cap space because the 2 giant ass contracts we have are ****ing us.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by wazu

Hill absolutely cannot be let go while he’s still in his twenties. He and Mahomes will get deals making them highest paid at their positions in league history. After that do what you can do, and draft well.

I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.

[jaa1025]

Hill should be the #1 priority this off season. I'd sign him to his second contract but not a 3rd contract. I'd also sign Chris Jones. I think the only way to play defense now is to rush the passer with ball hawking DB's and the new lean Chris Jones is becoming one of the best on the DL in the league.

They don't want to wait till next year for either of them.