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Old 12-23-2022, 08:43 AM   #2
notorious notorious is offline
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Originally Posted by Buehler445 View Post
Read that. Whatever. Shouldn't be a shock to anyone paying even passive attention to their stock price.

We are seeing the post-war Europe stage of the Streaming Wars - sans Marshall Plan.

I heard on the Watch Podcast that HBO is pulling the plug on a bunch of content on the HBOMax platform. Including expensive shit like Westworld and Raised by Wolves. I was like WTF Mate. Apparently industry talk (HBO/Discovery obviously hasn't released anything) is that they are starting an ad supported streaming service (that's not what they call it, but I'm going with ASS) like freevee or pluto.

Obviously Netflix is looking at Ads.

Disney Plus and Hulu isn't making any money and it isn't close. In fact I heard somewhere (Maybe it was that same podcast) Disney was tossing around spinning off ESPN. Who would have thought that 20 years ago?

Anyway, money is no longer cheap and now boards of directors are less amicable to giant ass losses.

So now we've all said **** off to cable/satelite, and we're going to end up paying cable prices, and still having to watch ****ing commercials at least some of the time. Much like WWII, was that shit worth it?

/Soapbox

I've always scratched my head at how Netflix, Amazon, etc. can dump hundreds of millions into a series, or in the case of LOTR a billion.

Well, I guess we're finding out they really can't.
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Old 12-23-2022, 10:51 AM   #3
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
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Originally Posted by notorious View Post
I've always scratched my head at how Netflix, Amazon, etc. can dump hundreds of millions into a series, or in the case of LOTR a billion.

Well, I guess we're finding out they really can't.
As per usual, the downfall of an otherwise solid company: Doing moronic shit for the sake of stock price.

I think history will look back on the 2010s as the idiocy of the tech boom. From my admittedly passive attention that I've paid to the thing, here's my understanding.

Software scales cheap, right? So Microsoft makes Windows and it is a massive amount of research and programming and development and testing. Expensive shit right? But the cost of printing another Windows 95 CD is cheap as ****. So the model is set. Tech companies have high upfront costs, but it scales cheap.


So then along comes the startup boom Google Amazon et. al. Same shit. High upfront cost, MASSIVE losses in the beginning, but when they rule a segment they print money.

So then comes Facebook, Twitter et. al. They're not really even MAKING anything. But they're the same deal, massive losses, huge income when it scales.

So the tech industry is booming and the stage is set, you need to find a founder (who may or may not be a complete ****lehead) and some half baked ass idea, and a plan to scale the thing.

So then valuation (pre-IPO) and stock price (post-IPO) is pretty much based solely on growth. GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH. **** margins, sound business strategy, capital management, any of the shit grown ups have to do, it'll all work itself out after we own the industry right? RIGHT?

And that's how we get absurdity like Theranos and WeWork (and before that, Enron). Because mother****ers bamboozle other mother****ers in focusing exclusively on growth instead of, I don't know, achieving a return for investors?

Netflix falls into that, first as a success story, good idea, disruptive, stole a massive amount of marketshare, grew substantially. ****ing killed it. Right? Well everyone has a Netflix account so there is nowhere to grow to. So rather than shifting focus to earnings and a dividend model. They say, "WE'RE DOING IT AGAIN" and decide to take over the film production industry. And that isn't cheap, and they've gotten their asses beat like a drum, lost money and are getting raped on the stock price. All for the sake of growth at the expense of profit.

Now the adults have to talk.
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