***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[suzzer99]

From the latest WHO briefing:

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus: We see encouraging signs from the Republic of Korea. The number of newly reported cases appears to be declining, and the cases that are being reported are being identified primarily from known clusters. Although a few countries are reporting large numbers of cases, 115 countries have not reported any cases. 21 countries have reported only one case, and five countries that had reported cases have not reported new cases in the past 14 days.

The experience of these countries, and of China, continues to demonstrate that this is not a one-way street. This epidemic can be pushed back, but only with a collective coordinated and comprehensive approach that engages the entire machinery of government. We’re calling on every country to act with speed, scale, and clear-minded determination. Although we continue to see the majority of cases in handful of countries, we’re deeply concerned about the increasing number of countries reporting cases, especially those with weaker health systems.

However, this epidemic is a threat for every country, rich and poor, and as we have said before, even the high income countries should expect surprises. The solution is aggressive preparedness. We’re concerned that some countries have either not taken this seriously enough, or have decided there is nothing they can do. We’re concerned that in some countries the level of political commitment and the actions that demonstrate that commitment do not match the level of the threat we all face.

This is not a drill. This is not the time to give up. This is not a time for excuses. This is a time for pulling out all the stops. Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans. These are plans that start with leadership from the top. Coordinating every part of government, not just the health ministry. Security, diplomacy, finance, commerce, transport, trade, information, and more. The whole government should be involved. We need a whole government approach.

[FD]

Testing for the coronavirus might have stopped it. Now it’s too late.
The disease spread unchecked in the United States because we didn’t look for it.

By William Hanage

William Hanage is an associate professor of epidemiology at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

March 6, 2020 at 3:00 a.m. PST

The battle to keep covid-19 from becoming established in the United States is probably over without a single shot being fired. We were not outwitted, outpaced or outflanked. We knew what was coming. We just twiddled our thumbs as the coronavirus waltzed in.

The first thing officials need when responding to an infectious disease is a way to test for it — a way to tell who has it and who is at risk. Dozens of such test procedures have been produced in the scant weeks since covid-19 announced itself to the world by shutting down Wuhan, China, a city the size of New York. Public health agencies around the globe have generated huge amounts of data on how well these tests work and have rolled them out on a massive scale. South Korea alone has tested more than 100,000 of its citizens.

But the United States has lagged far behind the rest of the world in testing for the new coronavirus. As a result, outbreaks here are likely to be more numerous and more difficult to control than they would have been otherwise. I research infectious disease and how to fight it, so I know how important it is to detect outbreaks early. The covid-19 outbreak is the largest acute infectious-disease emergency most of us have experienced. And we may have let it go undetected here for too long.

For countries that are lucky enough so far to have been spared large covid-19 outbreaks, the way to handle the virus is simple: Strangle it at birth. If you detect it while there are still just a handful of cases, it is comparatively easy to chase down the contacts of the people who have it, isolate them quickly and halt transmission. If that fails, stopping transmission might take measures like the draconian restrictions imposed in China, which — while apparently successful — we should wish to avoid.

[continue reading]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...bbf_story.html

[TLO]

Originally Posted by FD

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...bbf_story.html

WaPo has been driving the fear train from the start.

[FD]

There have been more deaths in King County, Washington than in Beijing. https://t.co/pbGa52jnrI pic.twitter.com/0N2xRYFW4T

— Infectious Diseases (@InfectiousDz) March 6, 2020

The U.S. right now is acting like Wuhan did at the beginning of this last December, treating the virus as a PR problem that will go away if you ignore it as opposed to a real threat. China adjusted eventually but can we?

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by TLO

WaPo has been driving the fear train from the start.

Some fear might help stop the spread so that our medical facilities don't become overwhelmed. It's flat out dangerous to tell people everything is contained and this is just like the flu.

[SAGA45]

From what Ive seen and been told by healthcare workers at both jobs...no children have been reported with virus not even in China which is a relief. Anybody heard different?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Some fear might help stop the spread so that our medical facilities don't become overwhelmed. It's flat out dangerous to tell people everything is contained and this is just like the flu.

It's also incredibly dangerous to panic everyone so they show up at the ER/doctor's office with seasonal allergies or a cold.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by SAGA45

From what Ive seen and been told by healthcare workers at both jobs...no children have been reported with virus not even in China which is a relief. Anybody heard different?

I believe there have been children infected in China but they had very mild illnesses.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by SAGA45

From what Ive seen and been told by healthcare workers at both jobs...no children have been reported with virus not even in China which is a relief. Anybody heard different?

Children haven't died - but they absolutely can catch the virus. I know one who just tested positive in SF (my friend's daughter oversees his after school program). The kid will probably be fine. But you don't want him coughing or sneezing on grandma.

And now my mom (70, has hypertension) is telling me about a kid who coughed on her yesterday in some volunteer thing she was doing. It probably hasn't hit KC yet. But when the first case is confirmed it will mean 100s if not 1000s are floating around out there.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by TLO

It's also incredibly dangerous to panic everyone so they show up at the ER/doctor's office with seasonal allergies or a cold.

Most won't do that if you give them clear messaging and tell them to stay home.

We should be following what S. Korea is doing and what China did once they knew they had a real problem. Instead we're acting like China did around New Year's when they were hoping this would just go away.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

The media will do what it always does.


But, we have no idea how far and wide this has spread because the government cant get testing kits out to the public to confirm the coronavirus. Promised 1 million test kits by the end of the week. So far as of Friday morning, 75K.


If you dont even know how far and wide it has spread, you have no chance to contain the virus.

The briefing I was in on the 3rd said that they don't really expect to see much of an uptick in cases in the US until around 3.13.2020. It won't be until after then that we have any real handle of how widespread the virus is in the US. That said, if we aren't getting testing done in any reliable or consistent manner, what data we do have will be pretty worthless.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Most won't do that if you give them clear messaging and tell them to stay home.

We should be following what S. Korea is doing and what China did once they knew they had a real problem. Instead we're acting like China did around New Year's when they were hoping this would just go away.

Most of them are raiding every grocery store in town to stock up on ****ing toilet paper. The American public scares the shit out of me.

I don't disagree with most of your takes in this thread, just be careful not to get drawn into your panic. I feel like we're both monitoring this ourselves with similar perspectives.

[TLO]

The media is fanning the flames of panic surrounding the coronavirus outbreak, Dr. Drew Pinsky said Friday.

In an interview on "Fox & Friends" with hosts Jedediah Bila, Pete Hegseth, and Steve Doocy, Pinksy said that the panic surrounding the deadly virus is "far worse than the virus."

"Let the professionals whose job it is to contain pandemic do their job," he exclaimed. "They're doing an amazing job. Worldwide, the efforts and [effectiveness] of the organizations like the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] and the [World Health Organization (WHO)] has been remarkable and yet the media continue to take every effort to fan the flames of panic.

"Look, the WHO has said there's about a three percent fatality rate on this virus and every time they say that they always qualify it and say we expect it to drop a lot once we understand the full extent of the virus. ... It's among us. This is a flu season, everybody, There are 18,000 deaths from the flu," he continued.

"Why aren't we worried about that?" he asked. "Why isn't the message: get your flu shot? You're much more likely to die of the flu than the coronavirus."

"A local news agency in Los Angeles had...footage of a paramedic being dispatched to a cruise ship repeatedly all evening...and at the end, they go, 'Oh, by the way, there was a fight on a cruise ship. Somebody got injured,'" he recalled.

"And, you then, again, you saw the CDC press conference a couple of days ago where reporters were like, 'What are poor people supposed to do [with] the price of Purell?'" Pinsky added. "And, somebody stands up and goes, 'Wash your hands. It's far better.'

"So, wash your hands, disinfect everything, use your Clorox wipes, get your flu shot. Do all the things you're supposed to do in flu season," he advised.

On Friday, President Trump signed an $8.3 billion coronavirus spending bill to help combat the spread of the disease. To date, there have been at least 97,993 confirmed cases worldwide with over 3,300 deaths. The United States lays claim to 232 cases of the virus and 11 deaths have been recorded thus far.

[Mennonite]

Who better to ask about a pandemic than the host of Loveline and Celebrity Rehab?

[suzzer99]

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/607597/

Oregon, situated between the California and Washington hot spots, can test only about 40 people a day. Texas has 16 positive cases, according to media reports, but the health department’s website still lists only three cases. The Texas Tribune has reported that the state can test approximately 30 people a day.

Other states can test even fewer. Hawaii can test fewer than 20 people a day, though it could double that number in an emergency, an official told us. Iowa has supplies to test about 500 patients a day. Arkansas, though not near a current known outbreak, is able to test only four or five patients a day.

Texas can only run 30 tests a day. If it breaks out in Texas or any of these other states you're never going to know until hospitals get overrun. Maybe that's by design.