****2017 NFL Draft Thread**** (NO Spoilers)

[Dante84]

Let's ****ing do this.

Rules:
1. No spoiled picks in this thread, all weekend. This means that as tweets are leaking picks a few minutes before the selection is announced live, you don't post it in this thread (ex: embedded tweets), reference it in this thread (ex: Joe Slapdick says it's McCaffrey to Tampa) or hint at it (ex: "it's a RB!").

Don't be a dick.

Otherwise, have fun, talk shit, freak out and lose your goddamned minds. It's Draft Weekend. The hot takes in these threads are so funny.

I'll also be starting threads for each of our picks as they are made, with videos and notable stats/takes in the OP. Pure knee jerk gold to reference in the future.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by carcosa

Wow, you're literally ALWAYS wrong lmao

Even wronger one year later. Euthanize him.

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by New World Order

USA Today just blasted our pick!

"Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. And, honestly, he may never be. Between his inconsistent accuracy due to poor mechanics, his tendency to bail from clean pockets and his lack of field vision, he’s going to leave as many big plays on the field as he creates. This was a risky pick."

Oh wow

Scout-think like this why we were able to nab him

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

2017 draft class fifth-year options for top 5 picks:
1. Browns DE Myles Garrett: ✅
2. Bears QB Mitch Trubisky: ❌
3. 49ers DL Solomon Thomas: ❌
4. Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette: ❌
5. Titans WR Corey Davis: ❌

It’s hard to find a sure thing in the draft.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) May 2, 2020

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Superturtle

How do you watch a full year of Mahomes magic and then say the arm strength doesn't matter?

Because Watson is putting up top 5 QB numbers while people on here specifically said he would be a bust because of arm strength.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

2017 draft class fifth-year options for top 5 picks:
1. Browns DE Myles Garrett: ✅
2. Bears QB Mitch Trubisky: ❌
3. 49ers DL Solomon Thomas: ❌
4. Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette: ❌
5. Titans WR Corey Davis: ❌

It’s hard to find a sure thing in the draft.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) May 2, 2020

I watched the unfold and couldn’t believe our luck

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Because Watson is putting up top 5 QB numbers while people on here specifically said he would be a bust because of arm strength.

Top 5 is pushing it. Watson's numbers weren't even in the Top 10 this year and that was with DeAndre Hopkins and loaded weapons on offense. He does take a lot of hits, but the Texans vastly improved their line compared to 2018 and Watson still took a lot of unnecessary hits in 2019 by holding onto the ball too long when dropping back.

Watson is good, but the "Alex Smith who's willing to throw downfield" comparisons I heard before the 2017 draft seem pretty accurate.

[smithandrew051]

I think most Chiefs fans are reasonably satisfied with our first pick in this draft.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Top 5 is pushing it. Watson's numbers weren't even in the Top 10 this year and that was with DeAndre Hopkins and loaded weapons on offense. He does take a lot of hits, but the Texans vastly improved their line compared to 2018 and Watson still took a lot of unnecessary hits in 2019 by holding onto the ball too long when dropping back.

Watson is good, but the "Alex Smith who's willing to throw downfield" comparisons I heard before the 2017 draft seem pretty accurate.

Since coming into the league If I'm not mistaken his yards per pass were top 5, hes also top 5 in 4th quarter comebacks, and a few other metrics. Those people who said he was going to be a bust and used arm strength for their argument were clearly wrong.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Top 5 is pushing it. Watson's numbers weren't even in the Top 10 this year and that was with DeAndre Hopkins and loaded weapons on offense. He does take a lot of hits, but the Texans vastly improved their line compared to 2018 and Watson still took a lot of unnecessary hits in 2019 by holding onto the ball too long when dropping back.

Watson is good, but the "Alex Smith who's willing to throw downfield" comparisons I heard before the 2017 draft seem pretty accurate.

I think that's why ass cheeks on the face flipped Hopkins and went to a field and track line up. Somewhere in his mashed potatoes brains, they can just out sprint the coverage quickly and Watson can just heave it quickly.

[Red Dawg]

We won the draft. We got the best player in the 10 drafts.

[keg in kc]

I'm not sure who said Watson would bust, but he's been adequate but underwhelming for his draft position. I would argue he's one of the more overrated darlings of the sports media. I'm not sure how much longer this whole "he's just a winner" argument can continue without some sustained playoff success.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Since coming into the league If I'm not mistaken his yards per pass were top 5, hes also top 5 in 4th quarter comebacks, and a few other metrics. Those people who said he was going to be a bust and used arm strength for their argument were clearly wrong.

Arm strength is not a great metric for predicting success in the NFL. Just peruse the lsit of SB-winning QBs.

TB12, 6 SB wins

Joe Montana, 4

Troy Aikman, 3

Peyton Manning, 2

Eli Manning, 2

Bob Griese, 2

Bart Starr, 2

Nick Foles

And so on. It's nice to have, but obviously you can be elite without a big arm. Just ask Montana.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Since coming into the league If I'm not mistaken his yards per pass were top 5, hes also top 5 in 4th quarter comebacks, and a few other metrics. Those people who said he was going to be a bust and used arm strength for their argument were clearly wrong.

I think Watson might be just slightly overrated from looking at his stat sheet. There’s almost an Elway quality where he’ll take 6 sacks and throw 2 INT’s but then play hero ball in the 4th and come from behind and win with the Texans. I think he’s a good quarterback who delivers in clutch moments, but I don’t think he’s a true rival to Mahomes - which he would be if he was in the Top 5. These are Watson’s 2019 stats:

Passing Yards: 3,852 (13th)
YPA: 7.8 (12th)
AYPA: 7.7 (11th)
YPG: 256.8 (11th)
Rating: 98.0 (11th)
QBR: 68.7 (7th)
TD% 5.3 (9th)
Touchdowns: 26 (10th)

The only stat Watson where Watson is in the Top 5 is Completion percentage. Where he ranked 5th at 67.3%. But we know all about that statistic, as this statistic is the one of the only ones where Alex Smith’s 2016 & 2017 have been superior to Mahomes’ 2018 & 2019. As we’ve seen, Mahomes’ Comp % takes hits because of his willingness to throw it away (over taking the sack) and taking shots down field, while Alex often took the sack.

Watson is a good QB. I think the draft take of “Alex Smith with a downfield clutch gene” have been pretty accurate. But the difference between him and a Top 5 is the exact same difference between him and the middle of the pack. If Watson keeps taking so many sacks at this level, I don’t know how long his play will be sustainable anyway.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I think Watson might be just slightly overrated from looking at his stat sheet. There’s almost an Elway quality where he’ll take 6 sacks and throw 2 INT’s but then play hero ball in the 4th and come from behind and win with the Texans. I think he’s a good quarterback who delivers in clutch moments, but I don’t think he’s a true rival to Mahomes - which he would be if he was in the Top 5. These are Watson’s 2019 stats:

Passing Yards: 3,852 (13th)
YPA: 7.8 (12th)
AYPA: 7.7 (11th)
YPG: 256.8 (11th)
Rating: 98.0 (11th)
TD% 5.3 (9th)

The only stat Watson where Watson is in the Top 5 is Completion percentage. Where he ranked 5th at 67.3%. But we know all about that statistic, as this statistic is the only one where Alex Smith’s 2016 & 2017 have been superior to Mahomes. As we’ve seen, Mahomes’ Comp % takes hits because of his willingness to throw it away (over taking the sack) and taking shots down field, while Alex often took the sack. .

Watson is a good QB. But he’s the difference between him and a Top 5 is the exact same difference between him and the middle of the pack. If Watson keeps taking sacks at this level, I don’t know how long his play will be sustainable anyway.

Any chance last season was an outlier? What were his stats from 2017 to now?

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Any chance last season was an outlier? What were his stats from 2017 to now?

2019 was only his second full season as a starter, so it wouldn’t yet be considered an outlier. But still, he did have a small drop from his 2018 numbers.

2018 Watson

Passing Yards: 4,165 (15th)
YPA: 8.2 (7th)
AYPA: 8.8 (8th)
YPG: 260.3 (18th)
Rating 103.1 (6th)
QBR: 60.7 (15th)
TD%: 5.1 (15th)
Touchdowns: 26 (12th)

His completion percentage was a bit higher at 68.3%, but ranked a bit lower in the class of last year’s quarterbacks, coming in 8th in the NFL. His stats in 2018, while better in some areas, still aren’t at that elite mark to me. He’s Alex Smith who’s not afraid to make throws downfield in clutch time.