***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

I'm gonna guess we'll have flare ups and hot spots for a while, probably years. Hopefully we get a good vaccine by early next year.

[KCUnited]

Sweden reporting 6 new deaths
Finland reporting 2 new deaths
Norway TBD

[Donger]

The interesting thing about California is that their positive percentage didn't reach anything like Florida, Texas or Arizona. Their maximum so far was 8.0%

[Demonpenz]

No fans at the Indy 500 this year even when they delayed it

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'm gonna guess we'll have flare ups and hot spots for a while, probably years. Hopefully we get a good vaccine by early next year.

My sister is trying to move back to Hawaii right now and its next to impossible. You have to quarantine for 2 weeks once you get there which shouldn't be an issue right? Well if you don't already have a house to go to there is almost nowhere to go to do your quarantine.

She found a place that wants $2000 for 2 weeks for her to quarantine there. No short term housing is available and no way to get long term housing until you get through the 2 week quarantine etc..

It seems like a vaccine is their only acceptable outcome because they are going to have no immunity to this anytime soon.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

My sister is trying to move back to Hawaii right now and its next to impossible. You have to quarantine for 2 weeks once you get there which shouldn't be an issue right? Well if you don't already have a house to go to there is almost nowhere to go to do your quarantine.

She found a place that wants $2000 for 2 weeks for her to quarantine there. No short term housing is available and no way to get long term housing until you get through the 2 week quarantine etc..

It seems like a vaccine is their only acceptable outcome because they are going to have no immunity to this anytime soon.

They're currently having a spike right now last i saw.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

My sister is trying to move back to Hawaii right now and its next to impossible. You have to quarantine for 2 weeks once you get there which shouldn't be an issue right? Well if you don't already have a house to go to there is almost nowhere to go to do your quarantine.

She found a place that wants $2000 for 2 weeks for her to quarantine there. No short term housing is available and no way to get long term housing until you get through the 2 week quarantine etc..

It seems like a vaccine is their only acceptable outcome because they are going to have no immunity to this anytime soon.

In case she hasn't thought of it, there are hundreds of AirBnB's available in Hawaii.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

They're currently having a spike right now last i saw.

In a news release Monday, the state pointed to crowded beaches as potential sources of outbreaks. On Maui, health investigations traced at least one case in a person who recently attended a “drum circle” at Makena Beach, or a group of roughly 100 people on the beach to watch the sunset and rising of the full moon.

No one was wearing a mask and it did not appear that people were practicing social distancing, the state said.

Anderson added, “Unfortunately, Hawaii is experiencing spikes in cases similar to many mainland states, and in most cases, we can track new infections back to those who have let down their guard. Everyone needs to take this very seriously.”

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

lol at California having a good response. They had good sound bites and then half the state ignored masks and social distancing and went to the beach and the bars.

If California had opened up as much as AZ or FL we'd be in a worse disaster than N. Italy right now. Cases per capita in CA are still low.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Donger

In a news release Monday, the state pointed to crowded beaches as potential sources of outbreaks. On Maui, health investigations traced at least one case in a person who recently attended a “drum circle” at Makena Beach, or a group of roughly 100 people on the beach to watch the sunset and rising of the full moon.

No one was wearing a mask and it did not appear that people were practicing social distancing, the state said.

Anderson added, “Unfortunately, Hawaii is experiencing spikes in cases similar to many mainland states, and in most cases, we can track new infections back to those who have let down their guard. Everyone needs to take this very seriously.”

It seems like every place - state, city or country - goes something like this:

• roughly 20% of the population just waiting to get the virus as soon as any kind of lockdown is lifted - these could be young healthy people, or those who don't take the virus seriously
• the rest actively trying to avoid the virus, lucky enough to be able to work from home full time, old/retired etc.

So no matter how well they do locking down in the first place, there's this pressure just waiting to burst out at all times to get that first 20%. Of course the later you can have your initial blowup, the better the treatment and the more hospitals are prepared - so there's value in just not getting it over with.

The big question is if opening schools is going to give the virus a whole new fresh field to plow into beyond that first 20%.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

The big question is if opening schools is going to give the virus a whole new fresh field to plow into beyond that first 20%.

Uh, yeah, very likely.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

It seems like every place - state, city or country - goes something like this:

• roughly 20% of the population just waiting to get the virus as soon as any kind of lockdown is lifted - these could be young healthy people, or those who don't take the virus seriously
• the rest actively trying to avoid the virus, lucky enough to be able to work from home full time, old/retired etc.

So no matter how well they do locking down in the first place, there's this pressure just waiting to burst out at all times to get that first 20%. Of course the later you can have your initial blowup, the better the treatment and the more hospitals are prepared - so there's value in just not getting it over with.

The big question is if opening schools is going to give the virus a whole new fresh field to plow into beyond that first 20%.

All across Europe they've had schools open for a while and don't have problems. I'm sure someone will cite the one in Israel where they did have problems, but if you read into that, they had teachers and students going to school symptomatic.

I don't think anyone would argue that wouldn't cause problems.

[O.city]

It's a double edged sword, in that it is better for those who get it to wait longer for better treatment etc, but the longer you draw it out the worse the other side of the damage is.

New York hasn't had much of a second wave at all, so I'm gonna go out on a limb and say they may very well be done with it.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by SupDock

Not quite. That's a 500 percent increase.
An 80 percent increase would be 5 last year, 9 this year.

Hopefully my math isn't wrong, because that would make me feel like a dipshit. A little tired today

i was a dumbass this morning

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

All across Europe they've had schools open for a while and don't have problems. I'm sure someone will cite the one in Israel where they did have problems, but if you read into that, they had teachers and students going to school symptomatic.

I don't think anyone would argue that wouldn't cause problems.

Simple question (well kind of).

In general are kids safer in a controlled environment with protocols, people in masks, and regular sanitizing and cleaning or at home with and doing who knows what?