David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Yeah I'm sure Dorsey is going to be jumping for joy at the opportunity to trade with the team that unjustifiably fired him. This Browns trade crap is an illusion. He's not going there. I doubt Alex 'I Lead The NFL In Passer Rating' Smith would want to play for a team that went 0-16. He'd probably retire instead.

My money is on Jags, Bills, etc... A team that is a contender that needs help.

The browns have a very good offensive line. 1-2 starters away from being excellent. He could enter next year with saquon Barkley (plus Crowell and Duke Johnson), Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, and njoku as his receiver/tight end targets. Gregg Williams is a few pieces away from fielding a solid defense. And on both sides, they'd have $118m to drunkenly binge on players.

Don't buy into the 0-16 delusion. That browns team is better than you think. With a million draft picks, 2 top 5 picks, and $118m in cap space, that team could be excellent in a hurry. And Alex would be forever known as the player so good that he turned around a terrible team overnight. Cleveland would build him a statue if he retires 8-8. On top of that, Cleveland can give him a shit load of money and guarantee him the starting job for 2 years. A shitload of money, a chance to be considered a city hero, a better oLine, a chance to retire in 2 years as a winner? That's a really damn good opportunity for him.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

That's what happens when you have turn-styles as offensive linemen. And about that Bronco front 7?

They are an effing joke

I don't understand your point. Taking 2 sacks behind a turnstile of an offensive line is... A bad thing? Again, 4 backups starting on the ol yesterday including at LT. Not even backups. Third string.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

The browns have a very good offensive line. 1-2 starters away from being excellent. He could enter next year with saquon Barkley (plus Crowell and Duke Johnson), Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, and njoku as his receiver/tight end targets. Gregg Williams is a few pieces away from fielding a solid defense. And on both sides, they'd have $118m to drunkenly binge on players.

Don't buy into the 0-16 delusion. That browns team is better than you think. With a million draft picks, 2 top 5 picks, and $118m in cap space, that team could be excellent in a hurry. And Alex would be forever known as the player so good that he turned around a terrible team overnight. Cleveland would build him a statue if he retires 8-8. On top of that, Cleveland can give him a shit load of money and guarantee him the starting job for 2 years. A shitload of money, a chance to be considered a city hero, a better oLine, a chance to retire in 2 years as a winner? That's a really damn good opportunity for him.

It's not an illusion they did go 0-16. Plenty of teams can give him a lot of money. There's not much else for him to prove in his career other than winning a SB and that ain't happening in Cleveland. I can't speak for Alex but I highly doubt he will be OK with going there. He'd probably rather retire.

[Bowser]

Holy shit, this thread.

Let me put this simply - if Alex isn't here next year it's because of two things. 1) His trade value has never been higher at any point since his time in KC, and with Mahomes waiting in the wings, that's a good thing. 2) His cap number is just too damned high for a team that needs cap relief, essentially making it a business decision.

People want to make it sound like if the Chiefs move on from him it will be because they either don't like him or don't think he's capable, and neither one of those are the case. This is the way the NFL works in the salary cap era, and this is why everyday fans aren't holding down GM jobs with NFL teams. If we trade/release him, the decision will not come lightly but it will benefit both parties.

And one more thing - we are not Green Bay and Alex is not Brett Favre for crying out loud. Lol

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

The fans you see on social media are sickening. They'd have us sign Smith to an extension.

Aaron Rodgers sat for 3 years, so of course that means Mahomes should. Smith is the equivalent of Favre, after all.

It is certainly a possibility that Alex Smith will be on the trading block this off-season. Without question, it's possible and I think that many of us know that it would be unrealistic to think otherwise.

Now, back to the point: "No," Reid said when asked if a change would be made soon."That is not where I'm at right now. There's a couple other things I got to take care of." So, put on your Andy hat for one second and tell us two things that need to be done first before this can happen:

Fill in the blanks

1.

2.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

The bad thing is alot of those same people are probably Chief ST holders and while I blame the Hunt family for never ever drafting a 1st rd stud QB this fan base is also to blame. Why? Because there is a very large majority of this fan base that doesn't have the patience to watch a young QB develop and the Hunt family knows this. They would rather have Elvis Grbac, Steve Bono, Damon Huard, Matt Cassel, or Alex Smith's be the QB than watch a young QB develop.

Ridiculous nonsense. The Hunts have nothing to do with not drafting a QB. In fact they drafted one pretty high in the 2nd round in the 90's.

That is fully on Peterson, Marty, Herm and Pioli. It was simply a matter of having a competitive team in the 90's and thinking they could win with defense and a run game.

When they hired DV Green knew the offense and was available. Not to mention he was never the issue with those teams. Herm took over they had Green and its when they thought they could develop Croyle.

Pioli took over when Cassel looked like a good bet and he knew him.

When we had the #1 pick there wasn't a QB worth a shit. You can bet your ass were it the year before they would have taken Luck.

I don't think Clark magically changed his stance on all this last year, it was all about timing.

Hindsight is 20/20 but frankly most of the issue was the Chiefs were never thinking they were in rebuild mode or when they were the timing didn't work out. Ever since the rookie wage scale drafting and signing a QB has been cheaper than a free agent one.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by Bowser

And one more thing - we are not Green Bay and Alex is not Brett Favre for crying out loud. Lol

So, are you saying that Patrick Mahomes is not a future Hall Of Famer ??

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

What? Demarius Thomas is softer than cotton candy. Disappears in games, too. A non-factor. And CJ runs like a fat kid. He is decent, yes, but he will never break a tackle and take it all the way to the endzone. Nope. Not happening. And Von is on the decline.

Enough with the excuses

Says stop making excuses while making excuses.

[OKchiefs]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

It is certainly a possibility that Alex Smith will be on the trading block this off-season. Without question, it's possible and I think that many of us know that it would be unrealistic to think otherwise.

Now, back to the point: "No," Reid said when asked if a change would be made soon."That is not where I'm at right now. There's a couple other things I got to take care of." So, put on your Andy hat for one second and tell us two things that need to be done first before this can happen:

Fill in the blanks

1.

2.

Andy was talking about during the season. That has nothing to do with his plans for the offseason.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Just as it was when the season started, it's not up to Mahomes, but Smith. If Smith gets the Chiefs to the AFCG, don't be shocked to see him return and Mahomes will ride yet another season.

Originally Posted by Pestilence

AFC Championship game? **** that noise. Smith should be gone unless he wins a Super Bowl. And even if he does that.....it’s his time to go.

Everyone keeps talking like Smith will be back if he makes it to the AFCG or SB. First of all, come on, we all know he's not taking the Chiefs that far. Maybe he can if the defense plays lights out, maybe. Even if he does I still don't believe the Chiefs will keep him.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

It's not an illusion they did go 0-16. Plenty of teams can give him a lot of money. There's not much else for him to prove in his career other than winning a SB and that ain't happening in Cleveland. I can't speak for Alex but I highly doubt he will be OK with going there. He'd probably rather retire.

And the Chiefs went 1-15 before Alex Smith took them to the playoffs. What's your point? The jags and Bills are interesting teams but you're assuming they'd have interest whatsoever in giving up the picks. Browns offer by far the best compensation to the browns and to Smith. And if you actually look at the roster top down, the browns by next season could easily have more talent than Buffalo.

[bigjosh]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Andy Reid says he's not ready to bench Alex Smith in favor of the rookie Patrick Mahomes: "No," Reid said when asked if a change would be made soon. "That's not where I'm at right now. There's a couple other things I got to take care of."


1. Blank

2. Blank


Fill in the blanks

That is a quote from over a month ago you chode. You know, when Alex Smith was playing ****ing terribly.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

Andy was talking about during the season. That has nothing to do with his plans for the offseason.

Okay. So, what needs to happen first? I'm asking you a simple question. Can you tell us two things?

Fill in the blanks:

1. Blank

2. Blank

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Holy shit, this thread.

Let me put this simply - if Alex isn't here next year it's because of two things. 1) His trade value has never been higher at any point since his time in KC, and with Mahomes waiting in the wings, that's a good thing. 2) His cap number is just too damned high for a team that needs cap relief, essentially making it a business decision.

People want to make it sound like if the Chiefs move on from him it will be because they either don't like him or don't think he's capable, and neither one of those are the case. This is the way the NFL works in the salary cap era, and this is why everyday fans aren't holding down GM jobs with NFL teams. If we trade/release him, the decision will not come lightly but it will benefit both parties.

And one more thing - we are not Green Bay and Alex is not Brett Favre for crying out loud. Lol

I agree with the almost all of this but they did gave up multiple 1st rd picks for Mahomes for a reason. I think they realized that they have gotten as far as they could with Alex as the QB.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

So, are you saying that Patrick Mahomes is not a future Hall Of Famer ??

Nobody in here is saying that, only the Alex defenders are perceiving that.

Are you saying Alex IS Brett Favre?