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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 05-30-2017, 04:40 PM   #1621
Al Bundy Al Bundy is offline
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I reported Billay for spamming.

I am sorry I ever offered help to him in any way.

I hope he gains 50lbs and remains fat the rest of his sad life.

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Old 05-30-2017, 05:09 PM   #1622
penbrook penbrook is offline
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I didn't know Merrifield was 28 years old.
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Old 05-30-2017, 05:49 PM   #1623
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
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I'm 'all in' on being a seller. The only guy I would want to keep is Moose, but would be ok if we got a nice return for him too.
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Old 05-30-2017, 07:36 PM   #1624
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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2,754 qualified hitting seasons since 2000.


Alex' current slugging % of .209 would be dead last. Alshittys .232 would be second worst.


Alshittys' current wRC+ of 10 is easily the worst. Then Clint Barmes 2006 (38) and good ol Neifi Perez 2002 (39) come in ahead of Alex at 44


There are 177 qualified hitters this year. Alex and Alshittys join Dee Gordon as the only ones without a HR
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Old 05-30-2017, 07:40 PM   #1625
lewdog lewdog is offline
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
2,754 qualified hitting seasons since 2000.


Alex' current slugging % of .209 would be dead last. Alshittys .232 would be second worst.


Alshittys' current wRC+ of 10 is easily the worst. Then Clint Barmes 2006 (38) and good ol Neifi Perez 2002 (39) come in ahead of Alex at 44


There are 177 qualified hitters this year. Alex and Alshittys join Dee Gordon as the only ones without a HR
That's seriously some holy shit.

My God.

Thanks for providing those stats though. Wow.
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Old 05-30-2017, 07:44 PM   #1626
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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He needs to seriously consider retirement after the year.^


Alex has been hit 7x already this year, without which he'd be worse than Neifi wRC+ who wasn't hit in 2002. Shocking factoid: Neifi was intentionally walked twice that year

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Old 05-30-2017, 07:56 PM   #1627
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
2,754 qualified hitting seasons since 2000.


Alex' current slugging % of .209 would be dead last. Alshittys .232 would be second worst.


Alshittys' current wRC+ of 10 is easily the worst. Then Clint Barmes 2006 (38) and good ol Neifi Perez 2002 (39) come in ahead of Alex at 44


There are 177 qualified hitters this year. Alex and Alshittys join Dee Gordon as the only ones without a HR




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Old 05-30-2017, 07:57 PM   #1628
Discuss Thrower Discuss Thrower is offline
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They need pieces, but this isn't a complete tear down. Get some of the right pieces back, and KC could be reasonably targeting being back in contention in 2019 or 2020.


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I'd be pissed at my agent if I were Salvy or Duffy.

I just don't see how you can predict there'll be enough value brought in by lopping off the productive parts of the roster to maybe contend three years from now.
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Old 05-31-2017, 04:37 AM   #1629
Unsmooth-Moment Unsmooth-Moment is offline
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Skogland pitched great last night. What's his upside with us? You don't hear too much about him. Is he a middle of rotation kind of guy?

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Old 05-31-2017, 05:33 AM   #1630
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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Skogland pitched great last night. What's his upside with us? You don't hear too much about him. Is he a middle of rotation kind of guy?

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I think most who had seen him/pay attention to the Royals system had him chalked up as a back-end starter type, at best.

He is going to sit 90-91 with the fastball,
and his secondary pitches aren't big-time put away weapons.

But he IS 6-6, which helps with improving the play and plans of his pitches. His motion is loose and easy, so I'd imagine his 90-91 looks a little faster (seems to have some late life). The change up was good last night and will be a key. He also has consistently shown good control.

Also, his mom: would.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower View Post
I'd be pissed at my agent if I were Salvy or Duffy.



I just don't see how you can predict there'll be enough value brought in by lopping off the productive parts of the roster to maybe contend three years from now.

If they were going to be pissed about the team entering a rebuild/reload phase, they wouldn't have re-upped their deals.

Projecting forward in baseball with young players is one of the hardest things to do. Still, in 2019-2020, you'd be looking at Duffy and Karns still in their primes. Kennedy is likely a back-end, innings eating starter at best by that point, if he doesn't opt out.

Gordon's contract will be off the books. Perez will still be here and hopefully still hale/healthy (I'm encouraged by the way they've handled his PT this season).

And the way the more recent minor league promotions (Merrifield, Bonifacio, Strahm, Junis, Skogland, etc) have handled their promotion gives you hope for guys coming up. Other than Bonifacio, none of those guys were ever really heralded prospects, but they have debuted and shown the ability to be positive contributors nontheless (to differing degrees). Mondesi still has a world of talent offensively... if he can untap his tools more effectively, youre still talking about a GG-caliber shortstop who can be above-average offensively.

What they get back in trade and get out of the farm system are the big question marks and will help determine when they contend again. But it's not a hopeless situation by any means.



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Old 05-31-2017, 06:05 AM   #1631
DeepSouth DeepSouth is offline
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
And the way the more recent minor league promotions (Merrifield, Bonifacio, Strahm, Junis, Skogland, etc) have handled their promotion gives you hope for guys coming up. Other than Bonifacio, none of those guys were ever really heralded prospects, but they have debuted and shown the ability to be positive contributors nontheless (to differing degrees). Mondesi still has a world of talent offensively... if he can untap his tools more effectively, youre still talking about a GG-caliber shortstop who can be above-average offensively.
This is why I won't be disappointed if the Royals do NOT sign any of the guys that will be free agents. I'm ready to cheer for some new, Royals grown, young talent. Skogland pitching last night gave me a warm and fuzzy. Let's see what guys like Cuthbert, Dozier, O'Hearn, Mondesi, Junis, Skogland, etc... can do for the major league club.
Plus, the Royals haven't fared real well in giving players big contracts (see Gordon's stats).
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Old 05-31-2017, 06:14 AM   #1632
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
I think most who had seen him/pay attention to the Royals system had him chalked up as a back-end starter type, at best.

He is going to sit 90-91 with the fastball,
and his secondary pitches aren't big-time put away weapons.

But he IS 6-6, which helps with improving the play and plans of his pitches. His motion is loose and easy, so I'd imagine his 90-91 looks a little faster (seems to have some late life). The change up was good last night and will be a key. He also has consistently shown good control.

Also, his mom: would.




If they were going to be pissed about the team entering a rebuild/reload phase, they wouldn't have re-upped their deals.

Projecting forward in baseball with young players is one of the hardest things to do. Still, in 2019-2020, you'd be looking at Duffy and Karns still in their primes. Kennedy is likely a back-end, innings eating starter at best by that point, if he doesn't opt out.

Gordon's contract will be off the books. Perez will still be here and hopefully still hale/healthy (I'm encouraged by the way they've handled his PT this season).

And the way the more recent minor league promotions (Merrifield, Bonifacio, Strahm, Junis, Skogland, etc) have handled their promotion gives you hope for guys coming up. Other than Bonifacio, none of those guys were ever really heralded prospects, but they have debuted and shown the ability to be positive contributors nontheless (to differing degrees). Mondesi still has a world of talent offensively... if he can untap his tools more effectively, youre still talking about a GG-caliber shortstop who can be above-average offensively.

What they get back in trade and get out of the farm system are the big question marks and will help determine when they contend again. But it's not a hopeless situation by any means.



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Strahm so far has been legit. Skoglund and Junis, though promising, still have to show more but I am hopeful for the both of them. Bonafacio is killing it right now. Soler can't even see the field but I have a feeling he will when we trade Cain and move Gordon to CF and Jorge to LF.
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Old 05-31-2017, 07:02 AM   #1633
Great Expectations Great Expectations is offline
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Gordon will be the worst player in baseball if he is moved to center. His D in left is the only thing keeping him from being the worst right now. Shirley we have somebody in the minors who can hit 175 and play better D in Center than Gordon...
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Old 05-31-2017, 07:07 AM   #1634
Fansy the Famous Bard Fansy the Famous Bard is offline
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Gordon will be the worst player in baseball if he is moved to center. His D in left is the only thing keeping him from being the worst right now. Shirley we have somebody in the minors who can hit 175 and play better D in Center than Gordon...
"Hi. My name's Billy Burns, I enjoy Hunger Games movies and Lorenzo Cain trade rumors."

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Old 05-31-2017, 07:09 AM   #1635
Great Expectations Great Expectations is offline
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"Hi. My name's Billy Burns, I enjoy Hunger Games movies and Lorenzo Cain trades."

Good point
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