David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

imagine what happens if #29 actually turns to locate the ball as coached to do....

uh oh. Worth it then?

Roby was covering a guy in the flat. He never had a chance to make a play there.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by New World Order

Forces the ball into dangerous places?

He had one bad decision where he lobbed the ball up into double coverage to Harris

That was it.

He got lucky on that play, too. This game is to close to afford Mahomes an interception returned for a touchdown.

So, once is too many and it gives me pause. I see Brett Farve 2.0 in this way. Also, he's likely going to fumble the ball as well as much as he scrambles after being pocket flushed.

Ultimately, my concern is by comparison. One or two bad decisions equals an interception, fumble, or both. If you are going to make excuses for one or two bad decisions, let's at least look at what you're apologizing for potentially.

Here is a glance at Farves career: owns the all-time fumbles record at 166 (losing 73) in addition to throwing 336 interceptions. That's an astounding 406 turnovers, or an average of 1.33 per game over his 302 game regular season career.

And these numbers don't include playoffs. He owns the playoff record of interceptions at 30 and fumbled 11 times (losing 6) in 24 games. That's 1.5 turnovers per playoff game --even more horrific than his regular season performances.

Incidentally, Farve went to the playoffs 12 times and amassed a record of 13 and 11, including 1 and 1 on the "best team I've ever been on."

How important were his turnovers in those 11 losses?

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Derek Carr was in the MVP conversation last year. He is the stud of the division. No offense but instant gratification is not the answer to replacing a seasoned veteran. From what I saw of Mahomes he looks like he has potential but he's not ready to start in the NFL and who knows he may never be ready.

He is too jumpy in the pocket and forces the ball in dangerous places.

This person either doesn't know shit about football or didn't watch the game against Denver.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by Lzen

This person either doesn't know shit about football or didn't watch the game against Denver.

Oh look, ad hominem. Refute what is written

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Oh look, ad hominem. Refute what is written

**** you! You think your opinion means more? No, it doesn't. I saw a rookie QB come out yesterday and was a little inaccurate for the first couple of drives. Then he settled down and started making plays. He stepped up in the pocket under pressure and delivered strikes. Even when there wasn't anything open he made plays. Your assessment is flawed.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by Lzen

**** you! You think your opinion means more? No, it doesn't. I saw a rookie QB come out yesterday and was a little inaccurate for the first couple of drives. Then he settled down and started making plays. He stepped up in the pocket under pressure and delivered strikes. Even when there wasn't anything open he made plays. Your assessment is flawed.

Damn girl, gather yourself.

Again, I see potential. I also saw a Chiefs team play a Bronco squad chock full of worthless bums. The Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I think they (the Raiders) are a better metric.

We'll see what happens

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Damn girl, gather yourself.

Again, I see potential. I also saw a Chiefs team play a Bronco squad chock full of worthless bums. The Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I think they (the Raiders) are a better metric.

We'll see what happens

Go back to whatever rock you crawled out from under.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Go back to whatever rock you crawled out from under.

Favre forced the ball almost every time. With his arm strength, a lot of times he got away with it. But those weren't smart decisions, because a lot of things could happen with those forced throws, if the ball wasn't placed perfectly, it was an int.

And, a lot of times, it was an int.

Rodgers just doesn't force throws, most of the time. It helps tremenduously that his long range accuracy is off the charts and that, like Favre, he's capable of making the backfoot throw. Much like Mahomes did in that gif where the pass is incomplete off the back pedal on his back foot.

Despite a very average overall completion rate, Favre's rates for deep right and deep left passes are well below average. That means in order to have an overall average completion rate, he must be gorging on the dink and dunk stuff. Which is Mahomes weakness...the short, intermediate range passes.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Damn girl, gather yourself.

Again, I see potential. I also saw a Chiefs team play a Bronco squad chock full of worthless bums. The Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I think they (the Raiders) are a better metric.

We'll see what happens

Yes, we will see what happens, starting next year. Look, I wanted Alex Smith to succeed because I'm a Chiefs fan through and through But I've seen enough of his limitations to know that he's never going to take us to the SB unless the defense plays lights out. Mahommes is as ready as he needs to be. Sure, he will make mistakes as he grows and learns. That happens with all young QBs. But the upside will make it well worth it, IMO.

[Bowser]

The "Alex or Nothing" fan club is nervous.

[CrowbarMan]

What's wrong in his game that he can't drop back and throw the ball without play action?

Lots to be excited for, in terms of talent. Regardless, we won't know until midseason whether he had tendancies that defenses will pick apart.

See: Michael Vick, Colin Kaepernick, even Cam Newton.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

imagine what happens if #29 actually turns to locate the ball as coached to do....

uh oh. Worth it then?



... but Mahomes did enough overall to give everyone some confidence in his future.

I still feel sure Smith is gone from KC next season.

Sure sounds like Shitty is on the way out. A little parting shot by Reid.

"They threw the house at him on those blitzes and he made a couple of nice checks, and then he just kind of made plays and guys were on him and he moved around and made some of those throws... not many people can make those.”

~ Andy Reid on Patrick

[Best22]

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

imagine what happens if #29 actually turns to locate the ball as coached to do....

uh oh. Worth it then?



... but Mahomes did enough overall to give everyone some confidence in his future.

I still feel sure Smith is gone from KC next season.

#29 was covering someone else. He turned around to get closer. If he had gone for the pick he would have had no chance.

He has great closing speed which makes the pass look more dangerous than it was. But the all-22 will show that he was covering someone else and simply closed on Robinson later but hadn't little to no chance at an interception

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by CrowbarMan

What's wrong in his game that he can't drop back and throw the ball without play action?

Lots to be excited for, in terms of talent. Regardless, we won't know until midseason whether he had tendancies that defenses will pick apart.

See: Michael Vick, Colin Kaepernick, even Cam Newton.

Odds are Andy wanted to slow down their pass rush against the scrub O-Line with lots of play action. Simple concept.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Damn girl, gather yourself.

Again, I see potential. I also saw a Chiefs team play a Bronco squad chock full of worthless bums. The Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I think they (the Raiders) are a better metric.

We'll see what happens

The raiders D is a better metric than Denver’s ?


And Denver played their starters most of the game. So don’t think about pulling that nonsense