Hurricane Milton is a CAT 5 and Coming for Florida

[Otter]

Didn't see a thread and I'm pretty sure we some fellow members right in it's bullseye. This could be devastating.



Hurricane Milton grows 'explosively' stronger with 180-mph winds: Live updates

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...a/75552024007/

Spoiler!

Milton was tracking across the Gulf of Mexico bound for what could be a devastating crash along Florida's already storm-battered western coast.

14 min. readView original
Hurricane Milton strengthened to a Category 5 powerhouse Monday, driving sustained winds of 165 mph as it rolled across the Gulf of Mexico bound for what could be a devastating crash Wednesday along Florida's already storm-battered western coast.

The National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. ET advisory that Milton "poses an extremely serious threat to Florida," after earlier warning the hurricane wind speeds had "explosively" intensified. Those speeds increased by 95 mph in 24 hours and by 120 mph in 36 hours.

The storm rapidly strengthened from Category 2 to 5 in just a few hours on Monday. By Tuesday, Milton's intensity "should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger," the NHC said.

The center has issued hurricane watches across portions of Florida and warned that parts of the state could be overwhelmed by life-threatening storm surge, flooding rain, and damaging winds.

"Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday," the center said in its 11 p.m. advisory. "A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so."

Some weakening is forecast before the hurricane reaches the coast but Milton is still likely to be a "large and powerful hurricane" when it makes landfall, according to hurricane center specialist Jack Beven. The center warned that residents in warning areas should complete preparations, such as protecting life and property, by Tuesday night.

Rainfall is expected to total 5-10 inches in some areas of the state that were saturated even before Hurricane Helene smashed ashore less than two weeks ago. Isolated communities could see 15 inches, the hurricane center said. Some areas will be slammed with heavy rainfall well ahead of Milton's arrival, likely later on Tuesday through Wednesday night, the NHC said. A potentially deadly storm surge of 10-15 feet is possible for Tampa and other coastal communities.

Hurricane Milton tracker:
Follow projected path of Category 3 storm expected to hit Florida

Developments:

∎ By late Monday, Milton was moving near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, which was expected to see damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves through the night.

∎ Milton was centered 630 miles southwest of Tampa as of 11 p.m. ET, moving east at 9 mph. The storm's path places the center of the cone of uncertainty in the Tampa Bay area.

∎ The White House said President Joe Biden has been briefed on preparations for Milton's arrival and on the ongoing response and recovery efforts following Hurricane Helene.

∎ The hurricane center has raised potential storm surge heights in some locations and extended warnings northward along the Atlantic Coast. Storm surge is expected along the eastern Florida Panhandle and south through the Florida Keys, with as much as 15 feet in Tampa Bay.

∎ Tampa International Airport will suspend flight operations at 9 a.m. Tuesday and "reopen when safe to do so." The airport is not a shelter for people or vehicles, authorities said. The Orlando International Airport said it would suspend commercial and private flights Wednesday morning.

∎ California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced 144 state firefighters and other emergency workers will deploy to Florida to help with search and rescue efforts expected to be necessary when Milton hits. The California first responders are just the latest to be sent across the country to help with emergency efforts. Newsom sent 151 firefighters and rescue personnel in the wake of Helene.

A GOES infrared satellite view of a newly minted Category 5 Hurricane Milton at noon on Oct. 7.
Milton one of the 'most intense Atlantic hurricanes' on record
Milton became one of the top five "most intense Atlantic hurricanes" on record Monday night, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, Florida.

As of 8 p.m. ET, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Hunters measured a minimum central pressure of 897 mb for Milton — making the hurricane the fifth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic basin by barometric pressure.

Wilma (2005): 882 mb
Gilbert (1988): 888 mb
Labor Day Hurricane (1935): 892 mb
Rita (2005): 895 mb
Milton (2024): 897 mb
According to the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association, barometric pressure is the "pressure exerted by the atmosphere at a given point." The lower the barometric pressure, the more intense the winds and the storm are.

Lower wind speeds no consolation, hurricane expert says
One seemingly encouraging aspect of Milton’s frightening development is forecasters’ belief the hurricane’s intensity will diminish before reaching Florida’s west coast, from its current Category 5 to perhaps a Category 3.

Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, said that’s actually not good news.

Speaking to CNN, Rhome said Milton’s winds may decrease from the current 180 mph – they could conceivably dip below the 130 mph threshold for a Category 4 storm – but at the same time the hurricane will get bigger and become more damaging.

“We saw this in Helene,’’ Rhome said. “These big storms, these large-size storms, produce more impact. So this growth in size is going to more than compensate for the reduction in intensity, and it’s going to cause problems because you’re going to get a broader swath of impact, and then things like storm surge are actually made much worse by the bigger size.’’

Rhome pointed out the west side of the Florida peninsula is particularly susceptible to storm surge, as was evidenced late last month by the impact of Helene even though it only delivered a glancing blow to the area. The one-two combination of both major hurricanes so close to each other could be “crippling,’’ he said.

“This case it’s going to be a direct impact, a direct shot, and more powerful at that,’’ Rhome said. “So we’re going to have potentially catastrophic wind damage over a densely populated portion of the Florida peninsula. … Plus, the storm surge is going to be worse than we saw in Helene in some cases.’’

When will Milton hit what city?
The Tampa region will be hit by Milton first, according to AccuWeather. Meteorologists say the hurricane will batter the coastal city from 8 a.m. Wednesday through 2 a.m. Thursday. Up to a foot of rain is expected with 140 mph winds and up to 15 feet of storm surge.

Milton will hit Orlando around 12 p.m. Wednesday through 6 a.m. Thursday, AccuWeather said. Meteorologists forecast the hurricane's winds will slow to 120 mph - a Category 3 hurricane - but expect up to a foot of rain.

The storm is expect to slow as it heads north but reach Jacksonville with near hurricane-force winds, according to forecasters.

Vulnerable Tampa Bay area facing large storm surge
The Tampa Bay metro area has been deemed the nation's most vulnerable to storm surge, and now it's facing a potentially deadly calamity that could inflict more than $200 billion in damage.

Hurricane Milton, now at Category 5, is on track to smash into the region Wednesday and bring a storm surge of up to 15 feet. Some key factors could change before then, including the hurricane's path and level of intensity as it encounters wind shear. But the possibility of large parts of the area being flooded with seawater, perhaps the worst such inundation in more than a century, is very real.

"A severe storm with the right track orientation will cause an enormous buildup of water that will become trapped in the bay and inundate large areas of Tampa and St. Petersburg,'' said a 2015 report from the risk-modeling firm Karen Clark & Company. "Fifty percent of the population lives on ground elevations less than ten feet.''

− Doyle Rice, Janet Loehrke and Dinah Voyles Pulver


Resident of eastern Florida coast 'apprehensive'
Samuel Eames spent the weekend buying batteries and canned food as Hurricane Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico.

Eames, 70, lives just a few miles from Flagler Beach on the eastern coast of Florida. The longtime resident said it's rare for his community to experience hurricane-force winds from the west, but considering Milton’s power, he’s concerned about the potential damage.

“The weather guys here have been on the air for 20-25 years, and they said they have not dealt with a storm this powerful,” Eames said. “They're not kidding around.”

On Monday, the Navy veteran and retired construction manager said he intends to pick up prescriptions and buy a pair of knee-high boots before hunkering down in his home.

In the wake of Hurricane Helene, swaths of the state have faced rounds of thunderstorms. In Eames’ neighborhood, standing water could be seen “pretty much everywhere,” he said. Forecasters project 6 to 12 inches of rain falling over Flagler and several surrounding counties through Thursday.

“I'm not going to say that I'm worried, but I'm a little apprehensive,” Eames said.

Should there be a Category 6 for new turbocharged hurricanes?
Is there such a thing as a Category 6 hurricane? Not at the moment, but the topic has been discussed.

The long-used Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale starts at 74 mph for a Category 1 storm and goes up to Category 5 for any hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 157 mph and above.

The stunningly fast rise of Milton’s wind speeds – increasing by 130 mph to the current 180 mph in 36 hours – has once again raised the question of whether there should be a new category for turbocharged hurricanes. The only five storms known to have produced wind speeds of at least 192 mph – a possible threshold for a new category – have occurred in the last decade, as ocean temperatures have warmed in parts of the world.

However, some weather experts would like to see wind speed categories deemphasized, saying they don’t adequately convey a hurricane’s broader potential impacts such as storm surge and inland flooding. That’s what caused most of the damage from Hurricane Helene in Georgia and the Carolinas.

− Michael Loria and Dinah Voyles Pulver

Significant impact to beaches expected as Milton follows Helene
Florida's coastal area on the west, known for expansive beaches with fine, white sand, is likely to undergo significant change because of Milton, the U.S. Geological Survey said Monday.

Roughly 95% of the sand beaches on that coast are forecast to be continuously covered by waters from the Gulf of Mexico because of the hurricane, causing both erosion and overwash from the water levels covering the tops of sand dunes, the geological survey said.

“The significance of the coastal-change forecast for Milton’s impact to the Florida west coast cannot be overstated, as I believe communities are more vulnerable to this storm’s impacts due to the erosion that occurred recently from Helene,” said Kara Doran, a USGS supervisory physical scientist who works on the forecast.

The agency’s forecast is a worst-case scenario to help provide insight to emergency management officials.

− Dinah Voyles Pulver

Mom shifts into survivalist mode for Milton
For over a week, Elasa Tiernan has grappled with the flood damage to her home in Crystal Beach, in the Tampa Bay area. From hundreds of miles off shore, Hurricane Helene inundated Tiernan’s house in 2 feet of seawater. In the immediate aftermath, Tiernan’s husband – now bedridden because of mold exposure – cleared out the furniture and took a sledgehammer to the cabinets and concrete walls. Now, as Hurricane Milton approaches, one question haunts the lifelong Floridian: Will their home survive?

“I was going to squeegee more water out today, but with this all coming again, we pretty much just had to throw in the towel,” Tiernan, 48, told USA TODAY by phone as she searched for gasoline.

Most of her neighbors suffered the same fate during Helene, and now the streets are lined with “mountains of furniture.” On Monday, she bolted the doors shut, turned off the main breaker and headed for her aunt's house in Tarpon Springs, where she plans to shelter with her husband and daughter.

“I’m going to make sure we have everything we need. I'm a survivalist, I guess,” Tiernan said. “Being a mom of a 14-year-old, you don't really have a lot of time to think otherwise, right?”

Category 5s are the rarest hurricanes
Hurricane Milton is the second Category 5 storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, joining Beryl. Category 5 is the highest rating a hurricane can attain, according to the National Hurricane Center. Maximum sustained winds in excess of 156 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale are required for a hurricane to reach this intensity.

They are the rarest of hurricanes: Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman said there have only been 40 such hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin since 1924, according to NOAA's historical database.

Since 1950, only five other years have had at least two Atlantic Category 5 hurricanes, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach: 1961: Esther, Hattie; 2005: Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma; 2007: Dean, Felix; 2017: Irma, Maria; 2019: Dorian, Lorenzo.

Only four hurricanes have ever hit the U.S. at Category 5 strength; the most recent being Hurricane Michael in 2018.

− Doyle Rice

How is Hurricane Milton impacting flights?
Flights in the U.S. are not yet being affected by Hurricane Milton, but airlines and airports in the storm’s path are preparing for its impact. Carriers including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines have already begun issuing waivers that allow travelers going to or from some Florida airports to change their tickets beginning Monday for no extra charge, even if they purchased a basic economy fare. Customers can check their airline’s website for specific details on travel advisories.

Area airports are open now but say they are monitoring the storm’s path and are prepared to close if necessary. Tampa International Airport said it will suspend operations beginning 9 a.m. Tuesday and will reopen “as soon as it is safe to do so later this week.”

If a flight gets canceled for any reason, customers are entitled to a refund, according to Department of Transportation rules. Travelers should keep an eye on updates from their airline and consider taking advantage of flexible change policies if they don’t have to travel. Read more here.

− Eve Chen, Zach Wichter and Nathan Diller

Gulf Coast residents weary of another state of emergency
Debbie Pace and her family waited in line outside a solid waste facility for almost five hours Sunday night before they could drop off some of the debris Hurricane Helene scattered across their lawn in Palm Harbor, just north of Clearwater. The road to the dump was muddy and several cars had to be towed, said Pace, 52. Meanwhile, lines outside gas stations and supermarkets stretched for blocks as people rushed to pick up supplies.

The approach of Hurricane Milton has plunged Gulf Coast residents – many of whom already were mourning homes and even loved ones from Helene's rage – into a state of emergency, Pace said.

“Maybe five minutes from our home, it looks like a war zone with furniture stacking the streets everywhere,” she said. “We're still in such a state of recovery.”

Far from Florida, Helene cleanup marches on
While Florida braces for Milton, Western North Carolina is still in heavy cleanup mode from Helene. Nearly 1,000 soldiers from Fort Liberty in North Carolina and Fort Campbell in Kentucky are closely working with FEMA to distribute food, water and other desperately needed items, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder said at a briefing. Soldiers are also helping clear emergency routes.

The National Guard has activated more than 6,100 guardsmen, hundreds of high water vehicles and dozens of helicopters and rescue boats from 18 different states, Ryder said.

− Cybele Mayes-Osterman

After Helene, bracing for Milton: 'We're just exhausted'
David Green was expecting to meet Monday with an electrician for a damage estimate on his home, which Hurricane Helene flooded with 3.5 feet of water. Now, for the second time in less than two weeks, he’s again fortifying his home – this time for Hurricane Milton. Green and his wife live on St. Pete Beach, which along with Tampa Bay and surrounding coastal communities, is expected to receive 10-12 feet of storm surge this week.

“We’re just exhausted,” he told USA TODAY.

Green said mounds of debris are still piled up on curbs and buildings are being dug out from under the sand Helene pushed on shore. The 62-year-old said while he’s resigned himself to more flooding, he is worried Milton’s powerful winds could turn the household items into projectiles and cause structural damage.

Early Monday, he rented a truck from Home Depot and packed it with plywood to cover his windows. He plans to wrap up work on the home by Monday night, pack up his fans and dehumidifiers and wait out the storm at his daughter’s home in Ruskin. In the meantime, he’s going to postpone his appointment with his flood insurance company.

“Everything is already gone and out of the house,” he said. “We just have to shut the power off. Then we wait and see … hopefully we can come back.”

'I apologize, this is just horrific': Meteorologist gets weepy talking about Milton
Milton’s raging intensity brought one meteorologist to the point of tears on live television.

“I apologize, this is just horrific,” said NBC 6 hurricane specialist John Morales, his voice cracking and choking back tears after delivering the latest scientific readings of the storm's acceleration.

Morales, an atmospheric and environmental scientist, has four decades of experience as a meteorologist for the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration and TV stations, according to his LinkedIn.

“The seas are just so incredibly, incredibly hot,” Morales said, watching Milton spin off the coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. “Global warming, climate change leading to this and becoming an increasing threat.”

Morales' voice broke as he forecasted the impact Milton will have.

“You’re going to find it very difficult for it to be nothing less than a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Florida,” he said.

Morales' heartfelt show of sympathy for those in the storm's path earned him praise from several people on Youtube, with one user writing, "When a weatherman . . . for the last 50 years starts tearing over a forecast, you know there's big problems coming."

− Michael Loria

Milton sees 'rapid intensification,' explodes to a Cat 4 in about 1 day
Milton grew very strong very fast Monday in what meteorologists call "rapid intensification," which is a dramatic rise in wind speed and a huge drop in barometric pressure in a short amount of time. The phenomenon, which appears to be more common with hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in recent years, is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period.

Milton more than qualified, exploding from a 60-mph tropical storm Sunday morning to a potent 155-mph Category 4 hurricane − an increase of 95 mph in little more than 24 hours.

Rapid intensification is most likely when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an "extremely conducive environment," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach says. That typically means very warm water, low vertical wind shear and high levels of midlevel moisture.

− Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice

Disney World not taking reservations for Tuesday, Wednesday
Walt Disney World theme parks were still open to the public Monday. Disney, however, was not taking park reservations for Tuesday and Wednesday. Disney had posted a hurricane update on its Disney World weather updates and information page: “Walt Disney World Resort is currently operating under normal conditions. We are closely monitoring the path of the projected storm as we continue to prioritize the safety of our guests and cast members. To ensure you have a magical visit to Walt Disney World Resort, we encourage you to prepare for the local climate and check the weather forecast for Central Florida. Check back for important weather updates."

− Jennifer Sangalang

Mandatory evacuation orders expected Monday
Pinellas, Manatee and Sarasota were among counties expected to announce evacuation orders Monday. Pinellas County, which includes the city of St. Petersburg, was planning to announce mandatory evacuations for 500,000 people in the low-lying areas, Sheriff Bob Gualtieri said Sunday. He urged people to heed evacuation orders after he said too many ignored them for Helene, resulting in 12 deaths in the county and 1,500 emergency calls that went unanswered.

The county already ordered the evacuation of six hospitals, 25 nursing homes and 44 assisted living facilities totaling 6,600 patients, said Cathie Perkins, director of the county's emergency management. School was canceled through Wednesday.

Kevin Guthrie, director of Florida's emergency management division, said the state was preparing for the largest evacuation since Hurricane Irma in 2017, when more than 6 million Floridians were forced to flee their homes.

From rescue to recovery:
The grim task in flood-ravaged western North Carolina

What does declaring a state of emergency in Florida mean?
Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 51 of Florida's 67 counties ahead of Milton. Declaring a state of emergency allows the state and local governments more freedom to coordinate emergency agencies and relax restrictions.

The governor may suspend regulations that would slow emergency response, commandeer private property needed to deal with the emergency, order evacuations, and direct or delegate control of the National Guard to help rescue or cleanup operations. DeSantis also could suspend the sale of alcohol, guns, explosives and combustibles, establish emergency housing, limit power services as needed, and impose or allow exceptions to curfews. Read more here.

[BlackHelicopters]

Beware Milton.