***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Strongside

I understand this thing is deadly. I understand there are certain members of society who are at more risk than others.

That said, the whole 2-3 years of social distancing thing doesn't seem realistic to me.

The past few months have felt like years. I don't know that society is willing to say "alright, I'll forego 2-3 years of my life so that we can fully get this thing under control."

I just simply don't see it. You can disagree if you want, but I don't. I have colleagues in our Berlin office who say that Berlin is essentially back to life as usual. No masks, no distancing, etc.

We'll get this thing under control at some point. And I don't think it'll be 2-3 years.

I don't think we entirely know where we'll be in a year, let alone 3.

That said, it's pretty much a lock that other countries are going to be back to normal and we'll probably still be fighting it because we just have too much spread going on. Especially if schools do end up spreading this thing worse. There's not really a way around that.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I need some Test E man!

PM me if for real

[PHOG]

Originally Posted by Strongside

I understand this thing is deadly. I understand there are certain members of society who are at more risk than others.

That said, the whole 2-3 years of social distancing thing doesn't seem realistic to me.

We'll get this thing under control at some point. And I don't think it'll be 2-3 years.

Not according to msm.

[mr. tegu]

Many European countries, including Germany, France, and Spain, among others, are seeing cases rise again. They haven’t beat it all in regards to cases or things being normal.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by staylor26

You’re so full of shit. Not to mention it’s supposed to be mask AND 6 feet.

I don't know what's going on in that first pic, but that clearly isn't a normal protest. The only source(s) I can find for it seems to be 100s of identical click-bait articles:

https://www.google.com/search?tbs=sb...0op6mDCA&hl=en



I'll grant you that the other pics were not 99% compliance. A lot of the pictures you didn't choose from that search I posted had near 100% mask compliance. I went to a protest in LA that was 100% mask compliance. My argument still holds a lot of water at 90% compliance or even 80% vs. zero mask compliance going out of your way to scream in people's faces.

Who gives a shit about 6 feet? That's something you added. I only made the comment about masks - which make the lion's share of the difference. 6 feet or a mask is probably good enough. Almost all the people in your pics have masks, which the probably put in when they're in close quarters or not marching. It's not perfect but it's a lot better than doing nothing.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I don't know what's going on in that first pic, but that clearly isn't a normal protest.

A lot of the pictures you didn't choose from that search I posted had near 100% mask compliance. I went to a protest in LA that was 100% mask compliance.

Who gives a shit about 6 feet? That's something you added. I only made the comment about masks - which make the lion's share of the difference.

There are several people in all of those pics without their mask. It’s nowhere close to “over 99%” like you said.

And “6 feet” is relevant because all of this started with the potential dangers of spread. If you can look at those pictures and tell me you don’t see that the risk of spread is high, it’s because you’re biased, which I already know you are.

[suzzer99]

I don't see a huge risk in those pics, no. I don't see zero risk either. Pretty much everyone at least has a mask they can put on if they stop moving and get in tight.

FWIW I wasn't one going nuts about the other protests either - except when they get in close for an extended period with no masks, and especially when they scream in other people's faces.

The point is the pics you showed, and this, are nowhere close to identical risk level - which was the claim I responded to.



This one is even indoors ffs.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Strongside

I understand this thing is deadly. I understand there are certain members of society who are at more risk than others.

That said, the whole 2-3 years of social distancing thing doesn't seem realistic to me.

The past few months have felt like years. I don't know that society is willing to say "alright, I'll forego 2-3 years of my life so that we can fully get this thing under control."

I just simply don't see it. You can disagree if you want, but I don't. I have colleagues in our Berlin office who say that Berlin is essentially back to life as usual. No masks, no distancing, etc.

We'll get this thing under control at some point. And I don't think it'll be 2-3 years.

Society wouldn't have to forego 2 to 3 years of life if society would have taken it as seriously as Germany. Berlin is back to mostly normal because among other things they did social distancing.

I think the odds are good for a decent vaccine within the next six months.

Without a vaccine, there will still be people distancing 2 to 3 years from now and it will still be having a negative effect on the economy.

Cheap, fast, and widely available tests would also be a game changer. I expect that sooner than two to three years.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I don't see a huge risk in those pics, no. I don't see zero risk either. Pretty much everyone at least has a mask they can put on if they stop moving and get in tight.

FWIW I wasn't one going nuts about the other protests either - except when they get in close for an extended period with no masks, and especially when they scream in other people's faces.

The point is the pics you showed, and this, are nowhere close to identical risk level - which was the claim I responded to.



This one is even indoors ffs.

That was one protest compared to thousands of people gathering in different cities all over the country for WEEKS. Get the **** out of here with your one-sided bullshit. You also went from “over 99%” to a complete moving of the goalposts.

You’re just seeing what you want to see because you’re biased:








Also, how many of these people have masks that are THAT effective when thousands are crowded shoulder to shoulder? Do you see how many have a mask, but are not wearing it? Just because somebody has a mask on doesn’t mean they had it on the entire time. Are you not capable of that level of critical thinking or is it just your bias?

[kgrund]

So the virus burning out has been widely discussed on this board and people think this will be a problem a year from now even with no vaccine? Burnout means major problem over. Right?

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by tk13

I don't think we entirely know where we'll be in a year, let alone 3.

That said, it's pretty much a lock that other countries are going to be back to normal and we'll probably still be fighting it because we just have too much spread going on. Especially if schools do end up spreading this thing worse. There's not really a way around that.

Other countries don't have schools?

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Society wouldn't have to forego 2 to 3 years of life if society would have taken it as seriously as Germany. Berlin is back to mostly normal because among other things they did social distancing.

I think the odds are good for a decent vaccine within the next six months.

Without a vaccine, there will still be people distancing 2 to 3 years from now and it will still be having a negative effect on the economy.

Cheap, fast, and widely available tests would also be a game changer. I expect that sooner than two to three years.

German doctors and officials are talking about the start of their second wave having arrived as cases continue to rise. They are warning among other things that elective surgeries are at risk of being cancelled again soon. Thousands are protesting in Berlin and across the country about lockdowns and face masks requirements. Citizens are urged to avoid non essential travel to basically all of their neighbors. Despite rising cases schools are starting there next week as well. I wouldn’t classify things as normal there nor just assume it won’t keep getting worst as far as case numbers.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Also, how many of these people have masks that are THAT effective when thousands are crowded shoulder to shoulder? Do you see how many have a mask, but are not wearing it? Just because somebody has a mask on doesn’t mean they had it on the entire time. Are you not capable of that level of critical thinking or is it just your bias?

Great, you got people yelling when they have their bullhorns out, outside, w/o someone standing right in front of them.

Are you trying to claim that the anti-mask protest indoor and these BLM protests are the same risk level? Because that is the point I was replying to.

Also why haven't we seen outbreaks if these are as risky as you seem to think they are?

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

German doctors and officials are talking about the start of their second wave having arrived as cases continue to rise. They are warning among other things that elective surgeries are at risk of being cancelled again soon. Thousands are protesting in Berlin and across the country about lockdowns and face masks requirements. Citizens are urged to avoid non essential travel to basically all of their neighbors. Despite rising cases schools are starting there next week as well. I wouldn’t classify things as normal there nor just assume it won’t keep getting worst as far as case numbers.

Germany had that one big anti-mask protest, and all the govt is asking is that they wear masks and take reasonable precautions:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53622797

Police ordered demonstrators to disperse at the end of the afternoon. They said they had launched legal action against organisers for not respecting coronavirus hygiene rules.

Health Minister Jens Spahn criticised people for failing to adhere to regulations, including the 1.5m (5ft) social distancing requirement.

"Yes, demonstrations should be allowed even amid the pandemic. But not like this," he wrote on Twitter.

Social distancing rules and hygiene requirements apply throughout the country, and people must wear face-coverings in shops and on public transport. Mandatory testing has been introduced for holidaymakers returning from high-risk areas.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

Other countries don't have schools?

Sure seems like a lot of other countries opened schools with success. But many of them also had far less cases. Hopefully we don't have problems but we're about to find out. I'm not sure there's another example comparable to what we're about to do. Seems like the elementary kids are fairly low risk but the high schoolers are a different story.