***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

We have 1 positive patient in our hospital and you can feel most of the staff are on edge now I can’t t imagine how those guys in NY are feeling , I am not a very anxious person and definitely not a germaphobe but I am definitely wary at home when i get back from work getting near the kids , invisible enemies suck.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Wonder when they start opening things back up again... Id imagine end of this month.

It is going to be a tough call , nobody will want to be first .

[sedated]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

I don't know how we can...nothing has changed, it's still out there. I don't see a viable exit strategy right now.

I heard there are 70+ vaccines for this currently in development. Really hoping there is a breakthrough, and hopefully before the 14 to 18 month estimate.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by sedated

I heard there are 70+ vaccines for this currently in development. Really hoping there is a breakthrough, and hopefully before the 14 to 18 month estimate.

Yep. We basically need a miracle. And even then, it's going to take a while to get it out to everyone. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see how this doesn't drag on well into summer.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

I don't know how we can...nothing has changed, it's still out there. I don't see a viable exit strategy right now.

I wouldn't despair. Look at it this way:

1) We were able to put a pause on the exponential growth of the virus. We prevented the hospital systems from being overrun which substantially decreased fatalities and protected health care workers

2) We know that social distancing works to pause the epidemic

3) We've bought time for the further production of PPE, ventilators, and gained additional clinical insight into the virus and appropriate supportive care

This is not to say that this is over. If we are past the peak we are not yet off the mountain. However, once we ride down the other side of the peak, we can begin opening things up while adhering to practices that will reduce infectiousness. We will have additional time to implement a more robust system of contract tracing, and we will have time to develop and roll out antibody testing to gain a much better understanding of the first wave of the epidemic.

Look at it this way: Americans were asked to sacrifice to save their neighbors, the elderly, those at high risk and the infirm. Experts thought that 50% would adhere to these guidelines and 90% of them did.

We should look upon that as a triumph. If we continue this pattern we will likely save close to 100,000 lives (and perhaps ten times that many had we done nothing).

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

My 87 year old mother fell a couple weeks ago and my brother found her and said she had a bloody nose. Well, she started acting weird the last 24 hours and they had to take her by ambulance to a hospital in Fort smith. Doctor said something abnormal on the brain scan and a little droopiness on one side so most likely having a stroke. I don't expect I'll get to see her again being 8 hours away.

[Sure-Oz]

Originally Posted by sedated

I heard there are 70+ vaccines for this currently in development. Really hoping there is a breakthrough, and hopefully before the 14 to 18 month estimate.

Be nice if a drug can be discovered that can reduce the severity of symptoms soon

[BigRedChief]

Florida is such a weird state to live in. It’s a miracle anything gets done. This happened at a public cabinet meeting.
——————————————————————————————

Florida should social distance until a vaccine exists — even if it’s next year, surgeon general says

After his assertion on social distancing, Scott Rivkees was quickly removed from the room by Gov. Ron DeSantis’ spokesman’s

TALLAHASSEE — Floridians will be keeping their distance and wearing face masks for up to a year until a COVID-19 vaccine exists, Florida Surgeon General Scott Rivkees said Monday before being whisked away by the governor’s spokeswoman.

Rivkees told reporters that Floridians needed to get used to current precautions, such as avoiding crowds of 10 or more and wearing face masks in public.

“Until we get a vaccine, which is a while off, this is going to be our new normal and we need to adapt and protect ourselves,” he said.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Monticore

It is going to be a tough call , nobody will want to be first .

Texas does

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

My 87 year old mother fell a couple weeks ago and my brother found her and said she had a bloody nose. Well, she started acting weird the last 24 hours and they had to take her by ambulance to a hospital in Fort smith. Doctor said something abnormal on the brain scan and a little droopiness on one side so most likely having a stroke. I don't expect I'll get to see her again being 8 hours away.

Sorry to hear. I hope she bounces back.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I wouldn't despair. Look at it this way:

1) We were able to put a pause on the exponential growth of the virus. We prevented the hospital systems from being overrun which substantially decreased fatalities and protected health care workers

2) We know that social distancing works to pause the epidemic

3) We've bought time for the further production of PPE, ventilators, and gained additional clinical insight into the virus and appropriate supportive care

This is not to say that this is over. If we are past the peak we are not yet off the mountain. However, once we ride down the other side of the peak, we can begin opening things up while adhering to practices that will reduce infectiousness. We will have additional time to implement a more robust system of contract tracing, and we will have time to develop and roll out antibody testing to gain a much better understanding of the first wave of the epidemic.

Look at it this way: Americans were asked to sacrifice to save their neighbors, the elderly, those at high risk and the infirm. Experts thought that 50% would adhere to these guidelines and 90% of them did.

We should look upon that as a triumph. If we continue this pattern we will likely save close to 100,000 lives (and perhaps ten times that many had we done nothing).

Do you have a link to the adherence part? I'd love to be able to show this to some dumb mother ****ers

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I wouldn't despair. Look at it this way:

1) We were able to put a pause on the exponential growth of the virus. We prevented the hospital systems from being overrun which substantially decreased fatalities and protected health care workers

2) We know that social distancing works to pause the epidemic

3) We've bought time for the further production of PPE, ventilators, and gained additional clinical insight into the virus and appropriate supportive care

This is not to say that this is over. If we are past the peak we are not yet off the mountain. However, once we ride down the other side of the peak, we can begin opening things up while adhering to practices that will reduce infectiousness. We will have additional time to implement a more robust system of contract tracing, and we will have time to develop and roll out antibody testing to gain a much better understanding of the first wave of the epidemic.

Look at it this way: Americans were asked to sacrifice to save their neighbors, the elderly, those at high risk and the infirm. Experts thought that 50% would adhere to these guidelines and 90% of them did.

We should look upon that as a triumph. If we continue this pattern we will likely save close to 100,000 lives (and perhaps ten times that many had we done nothing).

Not really despair, just trying to be realistic. More has to happen before we can start opening much back up, and it's not happening by the end of the month. I think people may be setting themselves up for a disappointment.


Not discounting what we've done by any means, however it's still early in the battle and we can't risk giving back the ground we gained.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Do you have a link to the adherence part? I'd love to be able to show this to some dumb mother ****ers

It is based on adherence and a certain percentage reduction in contact. We talked about it in here last week, but I think the IMHE website changed.

Here's another example:

"In the U.S., Re has fallen most clearly in Seattle’s King County. There, researchers at the Institute for Disease Modeling calculated, it fell from 2.7 (and possibly as high as 3.5) in late February, when community transmission was accelerating, to roughly 1.4 or even lower on March 18. The county would have had roughly triple the number of cases in late March without social distancing, they found."

Play around with this if you want. It's an interesting tool:

https://columbia.maps.arcgis.com/app...2a5b9c09ba796c

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It is based on adherence and a certain percentage reduction in contact. We talked about it in here last week, but I think the IMHE website changed.

Here's another example:

"In the U.S., Re has fallen most clearly in Seattle’s King County. There, researchers at the Institute for Disease Modeling calculated, it fell from 2.7 (and possibly as high as 3.5) in late February, when community transmission was accelerating, to roughly 1.4 or even lower on March 18. The county would have had roughly triple the number of cases in late March without social distancing, they found."

Play around with this if you want. It's an interesting tool:

https://columbia.maps.arcgis.com/app...2a5b9c09ba796c

To put a personal context around these statistics, a former PhD student of mine lives in King County. His wife is scheduled to have a C-section for their second child in a matter of days. They were very nervous in early March when they were ground zero for the US. They are still nervous, but feeling a bit more reassured now that they know that surgery won't take place in the middle of COVID19 triage.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

Not really despair, just trying to be realistic. More has to happen before we can start opening much back up, and it's not happening by the end of the month. I think people may be setting themselves up for a disappointment.


Not discounting what we've done by any means, however it's still early in the battle and we can't risk giving back the ground we gained.

I am not in the everything is over let's open everything up camp, but I think it would be ok to start slowly experimenting a little.

For instance trying to get the K through 6 grade opened back up. This age group probably isn't doing great online and it is hard on parents regarding the child care.

Since kids don't appear to be ending up in hospitals that often I think you could choose a handful of schools and give those parents and teachers the option of going back.

If you started small you could test like crazy for the virus and see how it goes.

I don't think opening all the schools all at once would be a good idea.