Trading down from 31/32 and why you should throw away the theory

[RunKC]

This might be a good year to trade down if we get stuck in no man's land like last year. Michael Penix Jr might be a guy teams want to trade more for at 32 to get the 5th year option. We could get more in a trade in that scenario.

[kcbubb]

Originally Posted by RunKC

This might be a good year to trade down if we get stuck in no man's land like last year. Michael Penix Jr might be a guy teams want to trade more for at 32 to get the 5th year option. We could get more in a trade in that scenario.

I agree. I’d love to see us trade with the falcons. I don’t know if they will want to pay the price to move up from #8 to get a top qb. I think this draft first three picks will be qbs and I don’t see the falcons paying that price. What would the falcons have to give up to move up to 32 to get penix? Here are the falcons picks. I like our options at the 43rd pick.

Atlanta Falcons Draft Picks by Round in 2024

Round 1, Pick 8
Round 2, Pick 43
Round 3, Pick 74
Round 3, Pick 79 (from JAX)*
Round 4, Pick 109
Round 5, Pick 141
Round 6, Pick 198 (via CLE)

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

I agree. I’d love to see us trade with the falcons. I don’t know if they will want to pay the price to move up from #8 to get a top qb. I think this draft first three picks will be qbs and I don’t see the falcons paying that price. What would the falcons have to give up to move up to 32 to get penix? Here are the falcons picks. I like our options at the 43rd pick.

Atlanta Falcons Draft Picks by Round in 2024

Round 1, Pick 8
Round 2, Pick 43
Round 3, Pick 74
Round 3, Pick 79 (from JAX)*
Round 4, Pick 109
Round 5, Pick 141
Round 6, Pick 198 (via CLE)

For #32 & #95?

We'd end up with...

#42 (2nd)
#64 (2nd)
#74 (3rd)
#79 (3rd)

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

For #32 & #95?

We'd end up with...

#42 (2nd)
#64 (2nd)
#74 (3rd)
#79 (3rd)

You're a 3rd rounder too high, IMO.

If they were desperate you might be able to get 43, 79 and 110 for 32 and 95. Even that may prove to be more than they're willing to offer.

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You're a 3rd rounder too high, IMO.

If they were desperate you might be able to get 43, 79 and 110 for 32 and 95. Even that may prove to be more than they're willing to offer.

Then ATL can kick rocks, they called me.

lol

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You're a 3rd rounder too high, IMO.

If they were desperate you might be able to get 43, 79 and 110 for 32 and 95. Even that may prove to be more than they're willing to offer.

I agree with this. 43, 79, and 110 actually work out exactly on the Rich Hill model.

[Mecca]

If anything Justin Reid earned an extension and it would lower his number.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Mecca

If anything Justin Reid earned an extension and it would lower his number.

I'm Leary of giving a lot of guaranteed money to a player that will be in his 30's.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I'm Leary of giving a lot of guaranteed money to a player that will be in his 30's.

The dude just turned 27 five days ago. I think a 3-year extension is fine. You know you're likely to cut the guy in that last year anyhow.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

The dude just turned 27 five days ago. I think a 3-year extension is fine. You know you're likely to cut the guy in that last year anyhow.

He's actually a month younger than Sneed.

If someone says "hey, he's not what I hoped he'd be in coverage so I don't think I want to extend him..." then I get that. I don't agree - that's not his job. But I at least see the argument.

But the age thing makes no sense to me for a guy who doesn't rely on explosive athleticism for his production.

[BigRedChief]

Seems to me that staying in the first round has an advantage rarely talked about as value.... We get another year of a rookie deal. Being able to keep George and McDuffie on a 5th year rookie deal will save our cap in a year or two.

[kccrow]

I'd almost rather move up than down depending on the situation that presents itself. I just don't like dropping down very often because almost always you take the L.

I think Arizona is an easy target at 27 with a future pick. I think you might be able to pull off sending them a 2025 3rd and get back a 2025 5th for that move. They don't need more picks this year.

I think there could be some advantages there if you're looking at WR/OL/DL with that last pick and having to run the gauntlet before us.

[kcbubb]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I'd almost rather move up than down depending on the situation that presents itself. I just don't like dropping down very often because almost always you take the L.

I think Arizona is an easy target at 27 with a future pick. I think you might be able to pull off sending them a 2025 3rd and get back a 2025 5th for that move. They don't need more picks this year.

I think there could be some advantages there if you're looking at WR/OL/DL with that last pick and having to run the gauntlet before us.

What player would you target if you moved up? I just don’t know if I see a player that I really like that’s worth moving up for. It seems like the talent bn 27-43 is pretty equal or hard to see some of those guys really separating themselves at that level? Or am I wrong?

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

What player would you target if you moved up? I just don’t know if I see a player that I really like that’s worth moving up for. It seems like the talent bn 27-43 is pretty equal or hard to see some of those guys really separating themselves at that level? Or am I wrong?

Depends on free agency and our needs. There are guys I would move up for a bit in both rounds.

If we're looking at round 1...

I'd be thinking about Guyton if he was there at 23 and we hadn't addressed LT adequately in FA.

If one of Murphy or Newton makes it to 22 and we lose Chris Jones, I'd think hard about that move.

I think my target in round 2 would be to 50 which will probably cost a 3rd round pick. You don't really know what might fall there. It's really just whether or not somebody tumbles unexpectedly... Kamari Lassiter, JaTavion Sanders, T'Vondre Sweat, Edgerrin Cooper, Xavier Worthy, Ruke Orhorhoro... those are the types of guys where you never know.