Official 2017 STL Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

My as well get it started. Here's my "Matheny" lineup.....

Fowler CF
Diaz SS
Carpenter 1B
Piscotty RF
Grichuk LF
Molina C
Peralta 3B
Wong 2B
Pitcher

My "Matheny" Starting rotation

Martinez
Reyes
Wainwright
Lynn
Leake

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Marco Polo

I'm really glad this happened. Longoria seemed to be an option to make a move just to make a move. Too costly and his no trade would've been a killer later on.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Rays have traded Evan Longoria to the Giants.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports says the Rays will receive third base prospect Christian Arroyo, veteran outfielder Denard Span, and minor league pitchers Matt Krook and Stephen Woods. Outside of the Span throw-in this is a decent haul for the Rays, given that Longoria is owed $86 million and hasn't posted an on-base percentage north of .328 since the 2013 season. Maybe the 32-year-old can bounce back offensively in a new environment, but San Francisco is a tough place for such an attempt.

He wouldn't have had a no-trade in STL; 10-5 rights wouldn't have triggered at that point.

But I don't care - his contract would've been a virtual no-trade clause.

As for the return - not impressed by Arroyo. Shrock appears to be a far better player to my eyes. Woods may be the most intriguing part in the package and even he's just a college pitcher picking on guys he's clearly more advance then. He's a scouting report guy - no way of really projecting his performance yet.

A 22 yr old beating up the South Atlantic League doesn't mean much, especially when he's still walking way too many guys and putting up a 1.4 WHIP against guys he should be wrecking. The landscape is littered with average sized righties who throw 97 and never find their command.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I know that's always a concern of Dan and Al but I think it's wildly overblown.

Cardinals pitchers executed 33 successful sacrifice bunts last year. Now lets make some assumptions that are slanted 'your' way here and assume that they were successful 80% of the time (far more than average, but again - assumptions in your favor). That's 41 total bunt attempts. Now let's also say that with Molina there they'd only be successful, I dunno, 20% of the time. So we'll say 10 bunts are successful instead of 33.

So that's 23 times a runner has made it over a base ahead of Carpenter/Fowler. Let's assume they're ALL with nobody out so you get 2 shots at getting that runner in and we'll say both hitters are .285 hitters - again, wildly overstating things.

That's about 11 'additional' times Wong scores over Molina given those extremely slanted assumptions. More realistically we're probably talking 7-8.

Now offset that by the number of runs that Wong can score from the 7 hole on a double by Molina due to his speed (and Molina's a nice doubles hitter when he's right). Or the number of times he can go from 1st to 3rd due to a Molina single and then score off a pitcher sac fly or some kind of safety/suicide squeeze; something that is unlikely to happen if the roles are reversed. Or the fact that Wong could still run from the 7 hole knowing that if he's thrown out, he hasn't sabotaged the inning by getting thrown out ahead of the pitcher so he can steal an additional run or two that way.

Additionally, each spot in the batting order is about 15-20 additional PAs and I'd rather see Wong get those. Finally, there's the advantage of further spreading your lefties. If you have Wong batting 8, a manager goes to his lefty, gets Wong out, doesn't care about picking off the opposing pitcher and leaves the lefty in to face Carpenter so you face a tactical disadvantage as well.

Ultimately I think Wong is the better offensive player and his versatility ahead of Molina's bat control is worth a fair amount of offense. I think it more than offsets the handful of runs that you may lose by having a more difficult bunt play.

This is fair, but I think you also need to consider the difference in batter profiles:

Molina puts a lot of balls in play. With the way the lineup is set-up in front of him and given his superior ISO to Wong, you're giving him more chances to drive in runs. While Molina is on the wrong side of the aging curve and Wong is on the right side, you also have to account for what is it that drove the difference in their offensive production. As a hitter, Wong was 3.7 runs above average (removing baserunning). In comparison, Molina was about 4.5 runs below average. So, where did those 8 runs come from?

Wong had the highest BABIP of his career by a significant margin despite little increase in his hard hit %, and a LD% that was lower than his career norms, which points to a lot of that being driven by luck. In contrast, Molina's BABIP was the lowest he'd had since 2010 despite a significant increase in his hard hit percentage (36.4%, previous career high 31.7%) with his LD% being within half a point of his career norms. Now, some of that lower BABIP is due to an increase in his flyball percentage.

Finally, Wong was 10 points below average against LHP and 12 points above average against RHP last year. Matt Carpenter was 15 points below average against LHP and 34 points above league against RHP. Fowler was league average when turned around and 28 points better than average when hitting lefty. Wong isn't Matt Adams against LHP. I think you're fine to leave him in

If you remove the underlying noise, you get two different kinds of players whose offensive skillsets end up creating a roughly similar number of runs:

1) A lead-footed free swinger with tremendous plate coverage who has better superior power

2) A fleet-footed player who walks slightly more and strikes out slightly less than average who doesn't have a lot of pop in his bat.

Given what the Cardinals have in the first six slots in the lineup, I'd rather have Molina driving the ball into the gaps or putting one over the fence occasionally. Overall, I think you make a compelling argument. I just happen to disagree given the above information.

[DJ's left nut]

Fair 'nuff.

I'm also presuming a little more growth from Wong and that Molina's 2016 was his 'Indian Summer' so to speak and that he's going to decline even further in '18; back to his '14/'15 levels of being a borderline offensive liability. At that point I don't believe they'd be similarly productive if distinctly different offensive players. I think Wong would simply be superior.

It doesn't really matter - as as been noted, Meathead's going to bat him 5th or 6th either way.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

In related news, I realized last night who Gyorko's swing reminds me of. It's going to sound blasphemous and trust me, I realize this.

I was watching GIFs of his swing and I noticed that very strong top hand, extremely quiet but powerful lower half and a bit of a truncated follow through. Then I saw the HR he hit off Jeanmar Gomez to tie it in the 9th and it hit me:

pic.twitter.com/OrqVRZB8wn

— cardinalsgifs (@cardinalsgifs) December 20, 2017

This one really solidified it:

pic.twitter.com/JQADS86C0y

— cardinalsgifs (@cardinalsgifs) December 20, 2017

That remind anyone of anything?

Spoiler!

I'm not saying he's as good. But he has a similar swing and similar approach. He's not as strong because NOBODY is that strong. But he also plays defense the same way - a very utilitarian approach. Nothing terribly pretty about it, but Rolen played the corner through a complete lack of fear and a cannon. Obviously Gyorko lacks that arm but a lot of his movements and mechanics over there are similar.

Gyorko is very much a poor man's Rolen. There are far worse things to have over there.

I can see the mechaical similarities. Physically he might be a cross between Rolen and Ron Cey.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by raybec 4

This is one of the first times I have been glad they didn't get someone.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Fair 'nuff.

I'm also presuming a little more growth from Wong and that Molina's 2016 was his 'Indian Summer' so to speak and that he's going to decline even further in '18; back to his '14/'15 levels of being a borderline offensive liability. At that point I don't believe they'd be similarly productive if distinctly different offensive players. I think Wong would simply be superior.

It doesn't really matter - as as been noted, Meathead's going to bat him 5th or 6th either way.

I was pleasantly surprised by Molina’s production last year, but I know that likely we are going to see it crater at some point in the near future. Playing catcher as long as he has is just brutal to the body.

[BigRedChief]

Gyrko is Rolen?

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Gyrko is Rolen?

He clearly gave a disclaimer.

[raybec 4]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Gyrko is Rolen?

GYORKO is not Rolen, nor did he say he was.

[Marco Polo]

Bob Nightengale just tweeted out that now that Evan Longoria is off the board, Mike Moustakas could be falling right into the Cardinals lap.

1) Does Nightengale have any credibility?
2) This is the first I have heard about any interest from STL with Moustakas.
3) What are your thoughts on Moustakas compared to what we have?

Go.

[DJ's left nut]

Nightengale has no credibility.

The end.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by Marco Polo

Bob Nightengale just tweeted out that now that Evan Longoria is off the board, Mike Moustakas could be falling right into the Cardinals lap.

1) Does Nightengale have any credibility?
2) This is the first I have heard about any interest from STL with Moustakas.
3) What are your thoughts on Moustakas compared to what we have?

Go.

Again, with today’s metrics he makes no sense over our internal options.

[VAChief]

Moustakas had arguably his best year and posted a 1.8 WAR. Gyorko was 3.6 last year.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by VAChief

Again, with today’s metrics he makes no sense over our internal options.

He's a lefty. That's about the only thing he'd have going for him on our roster.

But I think Logan Morrison is actually a better LH hitter and would come cheaper and with less term. If you wanted to, you could put him and Martinez in a platoon at 1b with Carpenter/Gyorko in a platoon at 3b and end up with some hellacious offensive performances for your troubles.

That would make far more sense than Moustakas.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He's a lefty. That's about the only thing he'd have going for him on our roster.

But I think Logan Morrison is actually a better LH hitter and would come cheaper and with less term. If you wanted to, you could put him and Martinez in a platoon at 1b with Carpenter/Gyorko in a platoon at 3b and end up with some hellacious offensive performances for your troubles.

That would make far more sense than Moustakas.

Yes, we are righty heavy, but I think balance is often overvalued based on old traditions. For some hitters there are big splits that make it worth considering.

I was looking at Morrison the other day too, and he is intriguing and that scenario with Maddon running the club would be something that could work nicely. I just think limiting meathead’s options are probably in our best interests.

Fangraphs now has projected as an 88 win team, which sounds about right to me. One reason to not be too anxious right now and sell off any assets low. We might be able to add some names not currently available in June or July.

It’s only one stat but the one position we had a negative wins above average was catcher. Relief pitching was also negative. That doesn’t factor in Ozuna. I think that 88-90 wins is not far fetched if we do nothing more.