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Old 08-05-2020, 02:52 PM  
Tribal Warfare Tribal Warfare is offline
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ESPN: Projecting future Hall of Famers for all 32 NFL teams



Kansas City Chiefs


Lock (100%): QB Patrick Mahomes. I addressed this in my MVP column in July. Mahomes' résumé -- a league MVP and Super Bowl MVP -- is usually enough to get a player into the Hall of Fame, let alone doing it over two seasons as a starter.

Likely (70% to 99%): WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce. It might seem surprising to put Hill this high, but he has made it to four Pro Bowls and been a first-team All-Pro twice across his first four seasons. All seven players who did that and who are eligible for the Hall are in, and the list of ineligible guys includes Hill, Patrick Willis, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Peterson, Zack Martin and Aaron Donald. Everyone but Hill is either a lock or extremely likely to make it in. Hill's game still relies on speed, so he could be more susceptible to a career shortened by injuries than most other candidates, but if he gets three more seasons with Mahomes, he's probably in.

Kelce is difficult to judge because tight ends aren't well represented in the Hall. Just nine tight ends are enshrined, and Kelce's game leans more toward receiving than any of them. At the same time, no tight end in history has more than four 1,000-yard seasons over their respective careers, and Kelce has just run off four consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns. Like Hill, if Kelce gets three more seasons with Mahomes, I think he's a Hall of Famer.

Work to do (10% to 39%): S Tyrann Mathieu. The Defensive Player of the Year candidate was named a first-team All-Pro in 2015 and 2019, but he hasn't received any other nominations across his other five pro seasons. Mathieu is a great player and just turned 28, so he still has plenty of time, but he probably needs four or five more Pro Bowl seasons or a DPOY victory to really get in the discussion.
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Old 08-05-2020, 02:59 PM   #2
Marcellus Marcellus is offline
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Wowza I had no idea Hill compared that well to other HoF receivers.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:05 PM   #3
O.city O.city is online now
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If Hill stays healthy and can stay with Pat and Andy, it'll be like Montana Rice 2.0.

They're too perfectly matched.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:07 PM   #4
ThaVirus ThaVirus is online now
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Originally Posted by Marcellus View Post
Wowza I had no idea Hill compared that well to other HoF receivers.
Did I miss something?

The article doesn't explicitly compare his numbers to any HoF receivers. They just say he's a part of an elite group of players who had four Pro Bowls and two All-Pros in their first four seasons. That is great but I believe one of each of Hill's PB and AP came as a returner.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:18 PM   #5
DJ's left nut DJ's left nut is offline
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Originally Posted by Marcellus View Post
Wowza I had no idea Hill compared that well to other HoF receivers.
I mentioned that exact thing in a conversation with O.City a week or so ago.

What Hill's done in terms of accolades in his first 4 seasons is incredible. Black Ink matters in a big way come HoF time (that's why Schwartz may struggle, especially at a position where there's no 'production' to point to).

And when all is said and done, Hill's gonna have a shitload of Black Ink on his resume at any kind of reasonable pace over the next several years.

I think the article is pretty spot on in that regard - it's early yet, but give him 3 or 4 more years and it's a pretty damn easy conversation to start having.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:20 PM   #6
DJ's left nut DJ's left nut is offline
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Originally Posted by ThaVirus View Post
Did I miss something?

The article doesn't explicitly compare his numbers to any HoF receivers. They just say he's a part of an elite group of players who had four Pro Bowls and two All-Pros in their first four seasons. That is great but I believe one of each of Hill's PB and AP came as a returner.
True enough - but again, when they just start stacking resumes up, he's STILL a 2-time All Pro and 4 time Pro Bowler.

And at this rate he'll get 2-3 more of the former and 4-6 more of the latter. You start talking about anyone who's made 4 All Pro teams and 8 Pro Bowls, I'm guessing that list is real short and all HoF guys. Regardless of how they earned 'em, that's select company.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:24 PM   #7
RealSNR RealSNR is offline
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There's a category for dudes having a 10 to 39% chance of making the HOF?

****, I'd give a solid 40% chance to Jones and Clark. But a 10% chance? I don't think people realize how low of a percent chance that is. Rarely do NFL games with a 10+ point spread mean the underdog has under a 40% chance of winning that game. And you're giving these guys only 10?

If we get a 10% chance, then you throw Mitchell Schwartz and CEH up there too. If any of those guys show consistency (Schwartz already has) and couples it with longevity (a very unlikely component in the NFL, but this is a 10% chance we're rolling with, keep in mind) then they would also be candidates for the HOF.

After all, need I remind people-- the NFL said Terrell Davis is a HOFer. Why can't ANY team's top 2-3 players, if they stay healthy, stay at the top of their game, and play for a billion years, eventually be enshrined in Canton? That's about a 10% chance, I'd say.

****, man. I mean, Buttkicker is a damn good kicker. Does he have a 10% chance of winning a couple more Super Bowls, being consistently great, and kicking until he's 40+? It's a 10% chance we're talking about here. I'd say yes.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:28 PM   #8
tatorhog tatorhog is offline
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Its sad that Mitchell Schwartz never gets any of the love he deserves. He plays a position that, if he's doing his job well, he doesn't get his name called. I would argue he's been one of the best RT in recent memory, and yet he doesn't seem to even get love on a season by season basis. He's every bit as good at his craft as Hill or Kelce are at theirs.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:30 PM   #9
DJ's left nut DJ's left nut is offline
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Originally Posted by tatorhog View Post
Its sad that Mitchell Schwartz never gets any of the love he deserves. He plays a position that, if he's doing his job well, he doesn't get his name called. I would argue he's been one of the best RT in recent memory, and yet he doesn't seem to even get love on a season by season basis. He's every bit as good at his craft as Hill or Kelce are at theirs.
Yeah, in a just world, Schwartz is up there with Kelce in terms of probabilities.

Or at least even with Mathieu.

Schwartz is a truly amazing RT, especially in a pass-happy era. It's criminal that he gets overlooked as often as he does. The guy is an absolute rock out there and someone that any team in the NFL could build their OL around.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:50 PM   #10
smithandrew051 smithandrew051 is offline
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Kinda silly that Melvin Ingram gets recognition, but Frank Clark doesn’t.

Ingram:
2012: 1 sack
2013: 1 sack
2014: 4 sacks
2015: 10.5 sacks
2016: 8 sacks
2017: 10.5 sacks
2018: 7 sacks
2019: 7 sacks

Postseason: 4 games, 2 sacks, 0 rings

Frank Clark:
2015: 3 sacks
2016: 10 sacks
2017: 9 sacks
2018: 13 sacks
2019: 8 sacks

Postseason: 8 games, 8 sacks, 1 ring

Not really seeing why Ingram would have a better chance than Clark.
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Old 08-05-2020, 04:13 PM   #11
Megatron96 Megatron96 is offline
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Looking at Jones' and Clark's career stats, they're still a long way from being considered by the HOF. Statistically, anyways. Though i find it interesting that Clark has both more regular season sacks and solo tackles than Jones, but is something like 257th in line to be inducted, while Jones is 218th? obviously I'm missing something.

But I believe both could be in the conversation should they play well over the next three seasons. And stay healthy, of course.

And I think they'll get there playing for the Chiefs, especially if they can play most of their careers with KC, which would give them many opportunities to make noise for themselves in the playoffs every year. The point being that they'll perennially be in a position to pressure the QB, get sacks, defense passes, make TFLs, etc., both in the regular season and the post-, which should give them both a better than even chance to earn a gold jacket.

Oh, and Schwartz should already be in the conversation. He's been dead solid for his entire career.
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Old 08-05-2020, 04:20 PM   #12
KChiefs1 KChiefs1 is offline
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7 Super Bowl rings will get a lot of them into the HOF.
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Old 08-05-2020, 05:14 PM   #13
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
I mentioned that exact thing in a conversation with O.City a week or so ago.

What Hill's done in terms of accolades in his first 4 seasons is incredible. Black Ink matters in a big way come HoF time (that's why Schwartz may struggle, especially at a position where there's no 'production' to point to).

And when all is said and done, Hill's gonna have a shitload of Black Ink on his resume at any kind of reasonable pace over the next several years.

I think the article is pretty spot on in that regard - it's early yet, but give him 3 or 4 more years and it's a pretty damn easy conversation to start having.
Hill is different from the speed receivers of the past. He is tough, He has proved he will go get a ball that means hes going to take a big hit. Also his vertical leap. We have seen him go up against taller corners and come down with the ball.
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Old 08-05-2020, 06:35 PM   #14
Bump Bump is online now
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kinda dumb thinking Kelce wouldn't be an absolute lock.
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Old 08-05-2020, 06:40 PM   #15
RunKC RunKC is offline
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Matheiu has a real chance for the Hall of Fame as long as he’s with Spags.

He had a career year last year and dropped 2 or 3 easy picks. If he stays healthy he’ll continue to have years like that and also get the highlights and exposure in the playoffs that will get him in
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