Call Your Shot: Who's the Chiefs first pick?

[staylor26]

Rule: You can change your answer up until next Thursday!

This might be the toughest year yet for this. I can see so many different possibilities, especially considering that I think there's a solid chance the Chiefs trade up.

Edit: It's draft day and I'm changing my pick!

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

There's way too much smoke about the Chiefs trading up and/or them targeting a LT. I'm going with a guy that I think could make it into our range, who also has the kind of upside that would have Veach itching to make a move to go get him.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by Mecca

If the board breaks where a legit talent is there which is why I think it's Newton, they'll just bring back Donovan Smith for another year.

Whether it’s Newton or someone else, I don’t think it’s a WR or OT if we sit still.

If we’re picking at 32, I’d bet that we get some crazy value on another position.

Could well be a DT or DB.

[Sassy Squatch]

Originally Posted by Mecca

If the board breaks where a legit talent is there which is why I think it's Newton, they'll just bring back Donovan Smith for another year.

Is that really wise? He didn't play all that well down the stretch last season even before missing a month.

[Red Dawg]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I don't know how many times I have to say it, but Tony Pauline knows absolutely nothing. Dude has never broken any news or provided legit insider info in his entire career.

He fits right in around here then.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Veach’s answer to his first question about OT:

“I think for us when it comes to tackle position, once you get past pick 35 or 40, most of those guys are gone. If you pick in the top 10 it’s a great class. If you pick in the top 15 it’s a great class. If you’re picking at 32 and 64 you’ve got a shot.”

Translation: all these mf’s are gonna be gone in the top 40 and if we want one we’ll have to get one in the first rd.

Or you trade up in the 2nd. He said "if you're picking at 32 and 64".

Not too different with what they did last year at WR. Missed out on the WR tier, then got a guy in their next tier in the 2nd.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Sassy Squatch

Needs to find a long term answer at OT this draft. There's way too much uncertainty along the interior to be playing this game AGAIN in 2025.

Picking where we pick, the long term answer is gonna likely be a guy that needs to be developed though.

So maybe the long term answer is Wanya, maybe it's this year etc, but "long term answers" are hard to find.

So the biggest thing they need to be is flexible here. If they can get a guy like NEwton who they think is a legit interior rushing answer, go for it. Patch up the LT and move along.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by Red Dawg

He fits right in around here then.

I'd argue that me reporting on here that the Chiefs had interest in Terrance Smith (from him), and for them to sign him as an UDFA is probably more than Tony Pauline has EVER done.

[SAGA45]

Originally Posted by O.city

That's every position, outside of maybe C or off ball LB'er.

It's funny you mention off-ball linebacker because, though highly unlikely at 32, I'd love for the Chiefs to nab Jeremiah Trotter Jr. somewhere in this draft. There's some legacy there with his dad and coach Reid in Philly, plus the kid is just an outstanding linebacker.

Besides maybe Payton Wilson (who looks like a Grand Theft Auto character), Trotter Jr.'s film has been the most enjoyable among the top-rated linebacker prospects.

[Mecca]

For what you'd get taking an OT at 32 you might get something similar if you sign Becton,provided you think you can keep him on the field.

[neech]

I'll say Tyler Guyton OT, but I think Chiefs will move back to the second round to get more pick's.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Or you trade up in the 2nd. He said "if you're picking at 32 and 64".

Not too different with what they did last year at WR. Missed out on the WR tier, then got a guy in their next tier in the 2nd.

It depends. We all know Paul has gained a ton of steam and will be a top 40 pick, maybe one of the first off the board on day 2. Nate Tice said on the athletic pod that the worst kept secret was the Patriots love affair with Kingsley. Apparently they’ve met with him a ton. Tice said he’d be shocked if Kingsley made it past 34.

[Jerm]

Originally Posted by RunKC

It depends. We all know Paul has gained a ton of steam and will be a top 40 pick, maybe one of the first off the board on day 2. Nate Tice said on the athletic pod that the worst kept secret was the Patriots love affair with Kingsley. Apparently they’ve met with him a ton. Tice said he’d be shocked if Kingsley made it past 34.

Why do you think Kingsley is viewed as a 2nd rounder now?

It's not like he has any glaring red flags...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Veach’s answer to his first question about OT:

“I think for us when it comes to tackle position, once you get past pick 35 or 40, most of those guys are gone. If you pick in the top 10 it’s a great class. If you pick in the top 15 it’s a great class. If you’re picking at 32 and 64 you’ve got a shot.”

Translation: all these mf’s are gonna be gone in the top 40 and if we want one we’ll have to get one in the first rd.

Yeah - it's hard to disagree with him.

Historically it does look like late 1st, early 2nd is about as late as you can get without looking at real outliers. By 45, you're looking at swing guys and maybe some eventually average starters.

Which would be fine, but even that is probably 2 seasons down the road. And at that point, what's the difference between someone you're likely to see at 64 and, say, Wanya Morris?

Which is why I'm still leaning Jordan Morgan in the 1st and 'Tez Walker in the 2nd. If you're strictly looking to game the draft to fill as many holes as possible with contributing depth, OT in the 1st and WR in the 2nd is pretty clearly the best way to do it.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by neech

I'll say Tyler Guyton OT, but I think Chiefs will move back to the second round to get more pick's.

If you hit on a great WR or OT giving up that 5th year option could cost you $20 million in cap space in year 5. That's not nothing.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

If you hit on a great WR or OT giving up that 5th year option could cost you $20 million in cap space in year 5. That's not nothing.

Yeah, the 5th year option has gotten a LOT more expensive with the new CBA. I think it depends on Pro Bowls; 1 will get you a big number (transition tag, IIRC) and 2 will get you the Franchise number.

If you haven't made a Pro Bowl though, the number is big not not terrifying. McDuffie, for instance, has a ton on the line the next couple years on the 5th year figure. He got boned and didn't get a Pro Bowl nod (even though he made All Pro). So as it stands his option would be in the 13-14 million range. If he gets one, he'll be at like $20 million and if he gets 2 he'd be near $22 million in all likelihood.

In either event, the odds of a rookie OT making any pro bowls in his first 4 seasons are pretty remote. And 2 of them damn near zero because of the intertia of Pro Bowl voting.

And at WR it's just not happening. The WR pool in the AFC is WAY too deep. So you're probably looking at around $15 million for a WR though that will go up as salaries do.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Sassy Squatch

Needs to find a long term answer at OT this draft. There's way too much uncertainty along the interior to be playing this game AGAIN in 2025.

Guyton and Mims are intriguing, but I'm holding out for Joe Alt to go street racing, beat up a vacuum, or whatever it takes for him to Jalen Carter into the 20s.

Carter was my favorite player in the draft last year and I wish we could have nabbed him. Go get Big John's kid.