David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[Best22]

Originally Posted by stevieray

..and I'll counter your stance is 20 years of the pit of misery and being shell shocked.

Listen, the guy showed great intangibles. That's awesome.

But he barely eeked by a Paxton Lynch led 5-10 Broncos.

Winning seasons.
Back to back division championships.
First playoff win in over 20 years.
Chance for the first playoff win @ home in almost 25 years.

I know this doesn't mean much to the board, but it does to Reid/Clark.

It's extremely hard to win in the NFL, regardless of how much people here downplay it.

Bray blew the lead by fumbling and going three and out!

Lynch was throwing to D. Thomas, CJ Anderson, and other starters

Mahomes had Wilson and Harris

No comparison to Mahomes and Lynch after today

From the Denver POV, this game was a rout

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by stevieray

..and I'll counter your stance is 20 years of the pit of misery and being shell shocked.

Listen, the guy showed great intangibles. That's awesome.

But he barely eeked by a Paxton Lynch led 5-10 Broncos.

Winning seasons.
Back to back division championships.
First playoff win in over 20 years.
Chance for the first playoff win @ home in almost 25 years.

I know this doesn't mean much to the board, but it does to Reid/Clark.

It's extremely hard to win in the NFL, regardless of how much people here downplay it.

Agree to disagree and seriously Steve, he left the game with a 14pt lead, Bray shit his pants and Mahomes still cleaned up his mess.

To say Mahomes eeked by Lynch and the Broncos will likely make the running for the most disingenuous post of 2018.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Best22

Bray blew the lead by fumbling and going three and out!

Denver never had the lead, IIRC

[Best22]

Originally Posted by stevieray

Denver never had the lead, IIRC

We had a 24-10 lead. Once the game was tied at 24, the lead was blown

Our 14 point advantage was rendered meaningless...we were back to where we were at kickoff. Tie game. That's why it was a blown lead.

[Callaway]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Eveyone (myself included) is gushing about him, as much as I've ever seen anyone fawned over.

Seems wired with the "right stuff" for QBs. Whatever the "it" factor is, he seems to have it. Seems very bright and well spoken (didn't know he was a 4.0 student). Humble, from what I have read knows he has a lot to learn and seems eager to get started. A "rocket" arm, I have to think he has one of the strongest arms in the league. (watched youtube highlights) He made one throw moving to the left out of the pocket under duress where he was nearly turned square to the left sideline where he still put some mustard on a throw down the field on a rope that was just stupid good, I have never seen that type of pass before.

He has brutal mechanics and terrible footwork (got away with it in college because of his arm, but of course DBs close/converge faster in the pros).

Seems to to play outside structure and improvise too much, will have to be more disciplined, play under more control and learn to make plays from the pocket at this level, that is a must. He is without a doubt raw and somewhat akin to a wild stallion that could take maybe another a year to "break", the very definition of a project. Although, I'll cede this point and drop it with a "we shall see"

Just some tough love about not being so reckless and taking needless shots or he may not last long. He is a great athlete with plus wheels, and will score some scrambling type TDs, but needs to be smart, pick his shots and learn to live to fight another day (another play - the best ability is AVAIL-ABILITY).

He seems to genuinely be passionate about the game with desire to be great. Father decade long MLB career (pitcher), he learned up close by example how to be a pro.

I hate to make the comparison because he was unique, and so many things would have to break optimally, but in terms of being a fearless gun slinger, just can't help but see some Favre in him.

Great points. You're absolutely right. His "win at all costs" attitude gets him in to trouble from time to time. But it definitely comes from his confidence, so I always took the good with the bad. He's not afraid to make the throws. Other than his ridiculous field vision, and ability to keep his eyes up all the time (even back when I started studying his high school vids before he took a snap at Tech, this was the first thing that jumped right out at me, he was just born with the ability), is his knack to make a bad mistake and come right back the next series without losing a step. He never gets gun shy. I knew after his INT yesterday he would instantly come back out swinging. I can't count the times I saw him do that at Tech.

I'm amped that he ended up at KC. I've been watching every game and am blown away by the atmosphere. Even here at the house, you can hear the sheer volume of the noise and feel the crowd. It's like the Jones at Tech on steroids. I'm really looking forward to visiting Arrowhead to experience it.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Agree to disagree and seriously Steve, he left the game with a 14pt lead, Bray shit his pants and Mahomes still cleaned up his mess.

To say Mahomes eeked by Lynch and the Broncos will likely make the running for the most disingenuous post of 2018.

uh, he did.

defense still has to play, too.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by stevieray

uh, he did.

defense still has to play, too.

Alex Smith allowed the Giants to squeak by us

I feel that's worse than "squeaking" by Lynch, especially when Lynch was playing with starters

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Best22

We had a 24-10 lead. Once the game was tied at 24, the lead was blown

Our 14 point advantage was rendered meaningless...we were back to where we were at kickoff. Tie game. That's why it was a blown lead.

no, that's a tie.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by stevieray

..and I'll counter your stance is 20 years of the pit of misery and being shell shocked.

Listen, the guy showed great intangibles. That's awesome.

But he barely eeked by a Paxton Lynch led 5-10 Broncos.

Winning seasons.
Back to back division championships.
First playoff win in over 20 years.
Chance for the first playoff win @ home in almost 25 years.

I know this doesn't mean much to the board, but it does to Reid/Clark.

It's extremely hard to win in the NFL, regardless of how much people here downplay it.

Those are nice accomplishments, but the real decision making happens next Saturday. The Chiefs have only gone so far in the playoffs with Alex and everything is once again set up for him.

It’s all on Alex now, and the first step for him returning next year is an AFCCG appearance. If Alex does that, his odds are much better. If he takes this team to the SB, he’s 100% back starting next season.

From the moment Patrick Mahomes was drafted, Alex’s future was going to be determined by what he does from this point forward.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by stevieray

no, that's a tie.

"Blown lead" only means your lead disappeared. If you had a big lead and find yourself tied or trailing later in the game, your lead was blown

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Best22

I fee that's worse than "squeaking" by Lynch, especially when Lynch wasn't playing with starters

There is no worse.

Harris and Wilson aren't starters?

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Goodness stevieray... your takes are unbearable. It's like you're genuinely afraid of good QB play.

And that stupid ****ing line about barely beating the 5-10 Broncos... GTFO. You know damn well it's never a game if Bray doesn't get put in. You also know we were playing backups.

You just have a hard time accepting that a QB has a tipping point, beyond which success feeds on success, but short of which, cascading errors spell doom. When things go bad for QBs, they look WORSE than they are. When things are going good, they look BETTER than they are.

Alex is only one part of the problem that ails the Chiefs offense in its entirety. And then there is the defense with its issues as well.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Those are nice accomplishments, but the real decision making happens next Saturday. The Chiefs have only gone so far in the playoffs with Alex and everything is once again set up for him.

It’s all on Alex now, and the first step for him returning next year is an AFCCG appearance. If Alex does that, his odds are much better. If he takes this team to the SB, he’s 100% back starting next season.

From the moment Patrick Mahomes was drafted, Alex’s future was going to be determined by what he does from this point forward.

The point is to win the SB, Alex has shown unless he has a top 5 defense he isn't winning a SB.

Mahomes shows promise of carrying a team ala Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre etc... End.Of.Debate.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by stevieray

There is no worse.

Harris and Wilson aren't starters?

He had Demaryius Thomas and CJ all game

That's the equivalent of Kelce and Hunt starting for us

Not to mention they had Von Miller and other starters on defense

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by Best22

"Blown lead" only means your lead disappeared. If you had a big lead and find yourself tied or trailing later in the game, your lead was blown

Keep in mind that the defense put points on the board as well.