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Deberg_1990 · 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.

The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

Chief Northman · 01-01-2018, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Sure, but that's Reid's boy. I'm not sure that Reid views sitting Mahomes as a bad thing.

Then Veach better speak loud and clear to Reid: this franchise has poor draft capital and a poor situation heading into free agency. Moving Smith significantly improves both.

Better to part a year early than a year too late.

ModSocks · 01-01-2018, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Molitoth

Puke

If i were the Chiefs i'd sell Smith while he's hot. I can't forsee him keeping this momentum up for another season. A losing skid like the one we saw earlier would most certainly result in a benching next season.

But im not holding my breath at this point. IMO, the odds are greater than not that Smith QB's this team next year. Even if only for half a season.

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

They’re gonna tailor the offense to Mahomes next year as well.

It’ll be different

Mahomes ran plenty of option concepts and is a great athlete. Anything Smith can do, Mahomes can do As well. The offense does not need to change for Mahomes.

ModSocks · 01-01-2018, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Mahomes ran plenty of option concepts and is a great athlete. Anything Smith can do, Mahomes can do As well. The offense does not need to change for Mahomes.

Mahomes isn't nearly the runner that Smith is. And he's not quite yet as natural at the RPO as Smith.

Make no mistake, the offense WILL change for Mahomes.

bigjosh · 01-01-2018, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Mahomes isn't nearly the runner that Smith is. And he's not quite yet as natural at the RPO as Smith.

Make no mistake, the offense WILL change for Mahomes.

But he doesnt need those gimmicks.

Chief Northman · 01-01-2018, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Mahomes ran plenty of option concepts and is a great athlete. Anything Smith can do, Mahomes can do As well. The offense does not need to change for Mahomes.

Now you are talking out of your ass. Option concepts?

Air Raid. Best scramble rules qb in NCAA last year. He is not a running qb like Smith was at Utah. His athleticism buys him time to make big plays with his elite field vision and arm talent.

Marcellus · 01-01-2018, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevieray

...he basically alluded to that yesterday.

As much as people want to read into things right now, it is a total waste of time to attempt to read what they will do this off season.

There is no way they KNOW what they are going to do right now. No way.

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

Now you are talking out of your ass. Option concepts?

Air Raid. Best scramble rules qb in NCAA last year. He is not a running qb like Smith was at Utah. His athleticism buys him time to make big plays with his elite field vision and arm talent.

What i meant to say is Mahomes was very successful rushing in college. Mahomes had 845 yards rushing and 22 rushing TDs

Marcellus · 01-01-2018, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Mahomes isn't nearly the runner that Smith is. And he's not quite yet as natural at the RPO as Smith.

Make no mistake, the offense WILL change for Mahomes.

True, it will change for the better. More vertical, guaranteed. And then it will open up the shorter stuff and the run game.

**SAUTO** · 01-01-2018, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by New World Order

LOL. Smith isn't even in the same ballpark as Rodgers in evading pressure and buying time.

Mahomes on the other hand...

Amazing

stevieray · 01-01-2018, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

There is no way they KNOW what they are going to do right now. No way.

Oh, I think they do, regardless of the outcome.

Marcellus · 01-01-2018, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Amazing

That is a HoF caliber type play. You can live with a few extra turnovers because of plays that extend drives more often than not.

#Fullbonerengaged

Marcellus · 01-01-2018, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevieray

Oh, I think they do, regardless of the outcome.

No idea where you get that, especially after yesterday.

There is literally no upside to keeping Smith next year minus a SB appearance.

That doesn't mean I dont appreciate what Smith has done, but come on, he is already the 2nd best QB on the roster.

stevieray · 01-01-2018, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

No idea where you get that, especially after yesterday.

There is literally no upside to keeping Smith next year minus a SB appearance.

Because Reid is a DETAILS guy. He's not half assing anything.

Your second line is pure desire, nothing more. It's not even realistic. It's just a mantra the board has adopted.

**Bowser** · 01-01-2018, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

As much as people want to read into things right now, it is a total waste of time to attempt to read what they will do this off season.

There is no way they KNOW what they are going to do right now. No way.

Exactly, and he's not going to make comments that could possibly mind**** Alex as he gets ready for the playoffs.

11-21-2017, 04:16 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Deberg_1990's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx.	David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes" The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year. The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
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