David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Sure sounds like Shitty is on the way out. A little parting shot by Reid.

"They threw the house at him on those blitzes and he made a couple of nice checks, and then he just kind of made plays and guys were on him and he moved around and made some of those throws... not many people can make those.”

~ Andy Reid on Patrick

It's a wrap. Andy was saying all of that stuff yesterday about how appreciative Mahomes should be of Alex because he knows he's about to trade him off elsewhere.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Damn girl, gather yourself.

Again, I see potential. I also saw a Chiefs team play a Bronco squad chock full of worthless bums. The Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I think they (the Raiders) are a better metric.

We'll see what happens

I saw a Chiefs team play a bunch of backups in both sides of the ball.

Mahomes best receiver all game was Wilson, and his bet RB was the Sausage

[New World Order]

Originally Posted by Sandy Vagina

imagine what happens if #29 actually turns to locate the ball as coached to do....

uh oh. Worth it then?



... but Mahomes did enough overall to give everyone some confidence in his future.

I still feel sure Smith is gone from KC next season.

[Mosbonian]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Damn girl, gather yourself.

Again, I see potential. I also saw a Chiefs team play a Bronco squad chock full of worthless bums. The Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I think they (the Raiders) are a better metric.

We'll see what happens

You must seriously be a closet Raider fan.....the Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball?

Carr is showing his tendency to be Phillip Rivers V2.0....Marshawn Lynch isn't the RB he was with Seattle...and Crabtree/Cooper combo is great one minute and then disappear the next. On offense the studs are Osemele and Hudson.

Khalil Mack is a stud on defense...would love to have him here in KC. Bowman was a great pickup but I think he still is a step slower than in his prime. Beyond that I don't see anything more than decent talent.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by Mosbonian

You must seriously be a closet Raider fan.....the Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball?

Carr is showing his tendency to be Phillip Rivers V2.0....Marshawn Lynch isn't the RB he was with Seattle...and Crabtree/Cooper combo is great one minute and then disappear the next. On offense the studs are Osemele and Hudson.

Khalil Mack is a stud on defense...would love to have him here in KC. Bowman was a great pickup but I think he still is a step slower than in his prime. Beyond that I don't see anything more than decent talent.

No, I'm not a Raiders fan.

However, I do agree that the Raiders have MVP talent in (both) Carr, and Mack. Also, I think your Rivers comparison is really close to being spot on---inconsistent footwork, sandlot player, throws without touch a lot of times.

Air Raid QB's don't have a lot of success in the NFL

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

No, I'm not a Raiders fan.

However, I do agree that the Raiders have MVP talent in (both) Carr, and Mack. Also, I think your Rivers comparison is really close to being spot on---inconsistent footwork, sandlot player, throws without touch a lot of times.

Air Raid QB's don't have a lot of success in the NFL

If you can't be excited for the future after watching Mahomes make his pro debut yesterday, then you just flat don't want to be excited for Mahomes.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by Lzen

Yes, we will see what happens, starting next year. Look, I wanted Alex Smith to succeed because I'm a Chiefs fan through and through But I've seen enough of his limitations to know that he's never going to take us to the SB unless the defense plays lights out. Mahommes is as ready as he needs to be. Sure, he will make mistakes as he grows and learns. That happens with all young QBs. But the upside will make it well worth it, IMO.

I can't really dispute this rationale. I love watching this kid play.. He is a play-maker. I think Mahomes style of play is rare in this league. Certainly one of the more intriguing arms, right now. I believe he has made strides and therefore I like his effort to be an improved player.

It's just that guys like him have spotty (inconsistent) success

[Spott]

Originally Posted by Mosbonian

You must seriously be a closet Raider fan.....the Raiders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball?

Carr is showing his tendency to be Phillip Rivers V2.0....Marshawn Lynch isn't the RB he was with Seattle...and Crabtree/Cooper combo is great one minute and then disappear the next. On offense the studs are Osemele and Hudson.

Khalil Mack is a stud on defense...would love to have him here in KC. Bowman was a great pickup but I think he still is a step slower than in his prime. Beyond that I don't see anything more than decent talent.

He's a Donkey, but basically the same thing.

[Spott]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I just cant even wrap my head around this. Doesn't seem real.

That is unreal. Smith would never complete that pass in a 100 tries, and probably wouldn't have even targeted Robinson on that play, especially with a check down receiver 5 yards in front of him.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by Spott

He's a Donkey, but basically the same thing.

I'm comparing Mahomes to Brett Favre the Hall of Famer and not Brett Favre the NFL prospect. Mahomes has the same problem that all air raid QBs have - they have to unlearn a lot of what would be bad habits at the next level and then retrain themselves substantially in order to play in the NFL. And the curse is worse with the best of them. The better they have the air raid ingrained in their muscle memory and reactions, the harder it is for them to shake these traits that are undesirable at the NFL level and then get themselves completely rebooted.

Love Mahomes but think it's still premature to start the kid.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

I'm comparing Mahomes to Brett Favre the Hall of Famer and not Brett Favre the NFL prospect. Mahomes has the same problem that all air raid QBs have - they have to unlearn a lot of what would be bad habits at the next level and then retrain themselves substantially in order to play in the NFL. And the curse is worse with the best of them. The better they have the air raid ingrained in their muscle memory and reactions, the harder it is for them to shake these traits that are undesirable at the NFL level and then get themselves completely rebooted.

Love Mahomes but think it's still premature to start the kid.

Jared Goff and Case Keenum seem to be doing just fine.

Air Raid QBs have sucked for a long time because the system doesn't require that much talent to produce big numbers. Graham ****ing Harrell can set the NCAA on fire in that system.

As you've already acknowledged, Mahomes has talent in spades. He's NOT Graham Harrell.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

The raiders D is a better metric than Denver’s ?


And Denver played their starters most of the game. So don’t think about pulling that nonsense

Denver D has regressed. How many double digit losses do the Broncos have? That D is not the same defense that won the Superbowl.. Can't stuff the run and their secondary is no longer the "No Fly Zone"

Also, their pass rush is one of the worst

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

It's a wrap. Andy was saying all of that stuff yesterday about how appreciative Mahomes should be of Alex because he knows he's about to trade him off elsewhere.

I don't remember where it was said. But didn't Andy once say that they were hesitant to start mahomes because they'd have to build an offense different from the one built for Alex Smith? That to me was when I felt confident mahomes is the guy next year. That means building around different players, teaching players a different way of playing, etc... That leaves veach with three options. Build around a 1-2 year window for Alex Smith, build around mahomes but start Smith, or start building around mahomes immediately. Can't see Smith liking option 2. Can't see veach liking option 1. Option 3 allows veach to clean the cap immediately, gain an extra $17m, and invest in mahomes guys, not smith's.

Until then, we'll hear Andy and veach tap dance around the question because they won't talk bad about Smith going into the playoffs and they won't want to hurt his trade value.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Jared Goff and Case Keenum seem to be doing just fine.

Air Raid QBs have sucked for a long time because the system doesn't require that much talent to produce big numbers. Graham ****ing Harrell can set the NCAA on fire in that system.

As you've already acknowledged, Mahomes has talent in spades. He's NOT Graham Harrell.

As stated.. I really like this kid. He’s got the tools, (does he have the *smarts? See asterisk below), and now seems to have some good pieces around him. I can only imagine the outcome if the Chiefs actually run the ball successfully.. And have an outside receiver who can get open and make a catch. I'm excited. I'm just not ready to call him the next Johnny Unitas.

He has a lot to prove yet as far as I'm concerned.

*Patrick Mahomes on Chiefs' playbook: 'A lot harder than I thought' http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...gn=twitter_atn

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

As stated.. I'm excited for this kid. He’s got the tools, but does he have the smarts?* (see asterisk below), and now seems to have some good pieces around him. I can only imagine the outcome if the Chiefs actually run the ball successfully.. And have an outside receiver who can get open and make a catch. I'm excited. I'm just not ready to call him the next Johnny Unitas.

He has a lot to prove yet as far as I'm concerned.

*Patrick Mahomes on Chiefs' playbook: 'A lot harder than I thought' http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...gn=twitter_atn

Dude. Andy just said yesterday that he did fantastic with the verbiage and plays, as well as making checks at the line of scrimmage and adjusting to what he saw from the defense.