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Deberg_1990 · 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.

The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

**New World Order** · 01-01-2018, 03:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Do you think if Aaron Rodgers had taken over the Packers even though Brett was still there that he'd be as good as he is? No one really knows but we do know he sat behind one of the greatest players of al time and has cemented himself as one of the best to ever play the game.

I'll give this young man the opportunity to learn the NFL. However, High School and College football does not compare.

Both sides of the sitting vs playing argument have winners.

What about Manning, Brady, Ryan, Wilson, Big Ben etc...?

They all played right away and are/were great quarterbacks.

Coogs · 01-01-2018, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by New World Order

Forces the ball into dangerous places?

He had one bad decision where he lobbed the ball up into double coveriage to Harris

That was it.

Something must have happened on the release. Harris was 2 steps behind everyone and not double covered. The last guy got over there very late, as the pass came in like a fair- catch punt. Happened right in front of me at the game. Normal Mahomes pass from that game, and it's game over.

It looked very much like the plays Clay has gifed up from the all22s that show open receivers that Smith doesn't throw to. Mahomes did. But for some reason, Harris had to stop, and another defender came in late to make it look like double coverage. Mahomes leads Harris, and that is an easy TD.

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 01-01-2018, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Derek Carr was in the MVP conversation last year. He is the stud of the division. No offense but instant gratification is not the answer to replacing a seasoned veteran. From what I saw of Mahomes he looks like he has potential but he's not ready to start in the NFL and who knows he may never be ready.

He is too jumpy in the pocket and forces the ball in dangerous places.

He would benefit from another year behind Smith. If Smith does down the kid will give you at least 50% chance of winning games while he is out

TigeRRUppeRRcut · 01-01-2018, 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Specifically talking physical traits Pat and Aarron Rodgers are strikingly similar but as far as the mental side yes Rodgers was farther ahead coming out of Cal. Rodgers thrives outside the pocket throwing unbelievable balls that's never been witnessed in the NFL. Mahomes has the same arm strength and ability in my opinion. Not saying Mahomes is any where near Rodgers game at this point (because he's not) but there's a lot of hope and optimism in KC. However.

Hope and optimism do not win games..in AFC west

Rodgers and Smith escape the pocket and get those sneaky yards a lot better. Again just a small sample size. Pat has several years into he's even at where Rodgers was when he first got the start... You can tell by the maturity, decision making, demeanor, quality of throws

chiefzilla1501 · 01-01-2018, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

Rodgers and Smith escape the pocket and get those sneaky yards a lot better. Again just a small sample size. Pat has several years into he's even at where Rodgers was when he first got the start... You can tell by the maturity, decision making, demeanor, quality of throws

Alex is a better runner than Rodgers or mahomes. The comparison ends there. Alex is not good throwing on the run, let alone looking to throw, let alone taking chances throwing on the run. And he's not good about knowing his pocket to initially escape pressure. In those areas, mahomes looks like he could be Rodgers like.

chiefzilla1501 · 01-01-2018, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Do you think if Aaron Rodgers had taken over the Packers even though Brett was still there that he'd be as good as he is? No one really knows but we do know he sat behind one of the greatest players of al time and has cemented himself as one of the best to ever play the game.

I'll give this young man the opportunity to learn the NFL. However, High School and College football does not compare.

Yes. Aaron Rodgers would have been fine.

Like any young qb, he would have learned while he played. Just as Wentz is doing. Just as Goff is doing. Just as Watson was doing.

**New World Order** · 01-01-2018, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

Rodgers and Smith escape the pocket and get those sneaky yards a lot better. Again just a small sample size. Pat has several years into he's even at where Rodgers was when he first got the start... You can tell by the maturity, decision making, demeanor, quality of throws

LOL. Smith isn't even in the same ballpark as Rodgers in evading pressure and buying time.

Mahomes on the other hand...

Warpaint69 · 01-01-2018, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TigeRRUppeRRcut

He would benefit from another year behind Smith. If Smith does down the kid will give you at least 50% chance of winning games while he is out

More like sell high on Alex and insert the Ferrari into the offense at QB.

**Mav** · 01-01-2018, 09:43 AM

I’d be tempted to just go with Mahomes now honestly. Mahomes is a stud.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

baitism · 01-01-2018, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Derek Carr was in the MVP conversation last year. He is the stud of the division. No offense but instant gratification is not the answer to replacing a seasoned veteran. From what I saw of Mahomes he looks like he has potential but he's not ready to start in the NFL and who knows he may never be ready.

He is too jumpy in the pocket and forces the ball in dangerous places.

I didn't think it was possible for your sports takes to be worse than your political takes, but here we are.

bigjosh · 01-01-2018, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Do you think if Aaron Rodgers had taken over the Packers even though Brett was still there that he'd be as good as he is? No one really knows but we do know he sat behind one of the greatest players of al time and has cemented himself as one of the best to ever play the game.

I'll give this young man the opportunity to learn the NFL. However, High School and College football does not compare.

I think the Rodger situation is different.

Rodgers fell into Green Bays lap. They didnt move up 15 spots and use future draft capitol to get him.

They probably weren't planning on taking him, he just kind of fell to them. They didnt move up because they already had a Hall of fame bound QB, and even then they probably only took Aaron because Favre was 36 years old.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 01-01-2018, 10:06 AM

The Chiefs aren't keeping the Ferrari in the garage another year. That thought died yesterday.

BigCatDaddy · 01-01-2018, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by New World Order

LOL. Smith isn't even in the same ballpark as Rodgers in evading pressure and buying time.

Mahomes on the other hand...

That's ****ing insane. Shitty runs in circles there before heaving it into the bleachers.

Marcellus · 01-01-2018, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by New World Order

LOL. Smith isn't even in the same ballpark as Rodgers in evading pressure and buying time.

Mahomes on the other hand...

I just cant even wrap my head around this. Doesn't seem real.

Sandy Vagina · 01-01-2018, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

That's ****ing insane. Shitty runs in circles there before heaving it into the bleachers.

imagine what happens if #29 actually turns to locate the ball as coached to do....

uh oh. Worth it then?

... but Mahomes did enough overall to give everyone some confidence in his future.

I still feel sure Smith is gone from KC next season.

11-21-2017, 04:16 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Deberg_1990's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx.	David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes" The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year. The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
Posts: 66,914

01-01-2018, 09:43 AM	#369
Mav XBOX GT MAVS ACE Mav's Avatar Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Wisconsin	I’d be tempted to just go with Mahomes now honestly. Mahomes is a stud. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Posts: 18,683

01-01-2018, 10:06 AM	#372
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS pugsnotdrugs19's Avatar Join Date: Aug 2013	The Chiefs aren't keeping the Ferrari in the garage another year. That thought died yesterday.
Posts: 26,377