David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Dude. Andy just said yesterday that he did fantastic with the verbiage and plays, as well as making checks at the line of scrimmage and adjusting to what he saw from the defense.

Okay, thanks. That's great news. I didn't get to hear, see or read that. Hopefully it's not just coach speak (sorry, I'm jaded) Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing this play out with my own eyes, though.

It has to pass the eye test

[RealSNR]

I said going into the game that I wanted to see Mahomes stay in the pocket when he's supposed to, only improvising when shit breaks down. For me, I wanted to see him run the designed play on his dropbacks around 50% of the time.

He definitely did that. And in the 50% of snaps in which he deviated, I'd say all but 2 or 3 were "good" deviations. By that, I mean for example, pushing it deep when a Donk jumped offsides, or breaking out of the pocket on a jailbreak blitz and throwing it away.

He looked pretty damn efficient out there, and you can bet your asses it's only going to get better in the offseason with an ENTIRE several months getting more and more comfortable with the playbook.

He's ready to start next year. Yeah, he'll still make mistakes, but he's ready to learn from those mistakes. He's not going to flounder. He's got the support. He's ready.

[Callaway]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

As stated.. I really like this kid. He’s got the tools, (does he have the *smarts? See asterisk below), and now seems to have some good pieces around him. I can only imagine the outcome if the Chiefs actually run the ball successfully.. And have an outside receiver who can get open and make a catch. I'm excited. I'm just not ready to call him the next Johnny Unitas.

He has a lot to prove yet as far as I'm concerned.
]

He was classified as a senior by his sophomore year credit wise. All while playing two sports (football and baseball, this was before he turned his attention solely to football). Also, this wasn't for some ho hum sports nutrition or bs degree like that. Business major. Dean's list, academic all american, etc. There shouldn't be any concern about what is between the ears.

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

I said going into the game that I wanted to see Mahomes stay in the pocket when he's supposed to, only improvising when shit breaks down. For me, I wanted to see him run the designed play on his dropbacks around 50% of the time.

He definitely did that. And in the 50% of snaps in which he deviated, I'd say all but 2 or 3 were "good" deviations. By that, I mean for example, pushing it deep when a Donk jumped offsides, or breaking out of the pocket on a jailbreak blitz and throwing it away.

He looked pretty damn efficient out there, and you can bet your asses it's only going to get better in the offseason with an ENTIRE several months getting more and more comfortable with the playbook.

He's ready to start next year. Yeah, he'll still make mistakes, but he's ready to learn from those mistakes. He's not going to flounder. He's got the support. He's ready.

He's a driver, he's a winner... things are gonna change I can feel it

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

I said going into the game that I wanted to see Mahomes stay in the pocket when he's supposed to, only improvising when shit breaks down. For me, I wanted to see him run the designed play on his dropbacks around 50% of the time.

He definitely did that. And in the 50% of snaps in which he deviated, I'd say all but 2 or 3 were "good" deviations. By that, I mean for example, pushing it deep when a Donk jumped offsides, or breaking out of the pocket on a jailbreak blitz and throwing it away.

He looked pretty damn efficient out there, and you can bet your asses it's only going to get better in the offseason with an ENTIRE several months getting more and more comfortable with the playbook.

He's ready to start next year. Yeah, he'll still make mistakes, but he's ready to learn from those mistakes. He's not going to flounder. He's got the support. He's ready.

Reid’s great at simplifying things for a player, when needed. If Mahomes is needed before 2018 as the starter, well, Reid’s simplified things for players before.

I think Mahomes is probably a year away. I mean the only real issue I see is footwork and some mechanics.

[O.city]

His footwork and mechanics don’t cause him any accuracy problems

[Dayze]

I’ve never been more confident in my belief that there is a large percentage of Chiefs fans that wouldn’t recognize legit QB talent if their life depended on it.

Must be from an entire generation of watching above averageQB play at best, and backup talent starting for the Chiefs at worst, and getting bounced when it counts (both in regular season and post season).

If anyone watched yesterday and didn’t immediately recognize the Grand Canyon sized talent difference at QB compared to the last 30 Year’s of what the Chiefs have trotted out at QB......then I don’t think they’ll ever recognize it.

Just wait until Pat gets a full off season to continue to build on what he’s already done in terms of playbook, etc. and is able to get reps with starters.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by Dayze

I’ve never been more confident in my belief that there is a large percentage of Chiefs fans that wouldn’t recognize legit QB talent if their life depended on it.

Must be from an entire generation of watching above averageQB play at best, and backup talent starting for the Chiefs at worst, and getting bounced when it counts (both in regular season and post season).

If anyone watched yesterday and didn’t immediately recognize the Grand Canyon sized talent difference at QB compared to the last 30 Year’s of what the Chiefs have trotted out at QB......then I don’t think they’ll ever recognize it.

Just wait until Pat gets a full off season to continue to build on what he’s already done in terms of playbook, etc. and is able to get reps with starters.

Post of the day.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by O.city

His footwork and mechanics don’t cause him any accuracy problems

Second best post of the day.

[Pueblo Chieftan]

Originally Posted by Callaway

He was classified as a senior by his sophomore year credit wise. All while playing two sports (football and baseball, this was before he turned his attention solely to football). Also, this wasn't for some ho hum sports nutrition or bs degree like that. Business major. Dean's list, academic all american, etc. There shouldn't be any concern about what is between the ears.

Eveyone (myself included) is gushing about him, as much as I've ever seen anyone fawned over.

Seems wired with the "right stuff" for QBs. Whatever the "it" factor is, he seems to have it. Seems very bright and well spoken (didn't know he was a 4.0 student). Humble, from what I have read knows he has a lot to learn and seems eager to get started. A "rocket" arm, I have to think he has one of the strongest arms in the league. (watched youtube highlights) He made one throw moving to the left out of the pocket under duress where he was nearly turned square to the left sideline where he still put some mustard on a throw down the field on a rope that was just stupid good, I have never seen that type of pass before.

He has brutal mechanics and terrible footwork (got away with it in college because of his arm, but of course DBs close/converge faster in the pros).

Seems to to play outside structure and improvise too much, will have to be more disciplined, play under more control and learn to make plays from the pocket at this level, that is a must. He is without a doubt raw and somewhat akin to a wild stallion that could take maybe another a year to "break", the very definition of a project. Although, I'll cede this point and drop it with a "we shall see"

Just some tough love about not being so reckless and taking needless shots or he may not last long. He is a great athlete with plus wheels, and will score some scrambling type TDs, but needs to be smart, pick his shots and learn to live to fight another day (another play - the best ability is AVAIL-ABILITY).

He seems to genuinely be passionate about the game with desire to be great. Father decade long MLB career (pitcher), he learned up close by example how to be a pro.

I hate to make the comparison because he was unique, and so many things would have to break optimally, but in terms of being a fearless gun slinger, just can't help but see some Favre in him.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Dayze

If anyone watched yesterday and didn’t immediately recognize the Grand Canyon sized talent difference at QB compared to the last 30 Year’s of what the Chiefs have trotted out at QB......then I don’t think they’ll ever recognize it.

Just wait until Pat gets a full off season to continue to build on what he’s already done in terms of playbook, etc. and is able to get reps with starters.

You know who knows this better than anyone else? The guys on the sideline and on the field yesterday.

I am certain Smith watches Mahomes and realizes the difference in their talents.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Eveyone (myself included) is gushing about him, as much as I've ever seen anyone fawned over.

Seems wired with the "right stuff" for QBs. Whatever the "it" factor is, he seems to have it. Seems very bright and well spoken (didn't know he was a 4.0 student). Humble, from what I have read knows he has a lot to learn and seems eager to get started. A "rocket" arm, I have to think he has one of the strongest arms in the league. (watched youtube highlights) He made one throw moving to the left out of the pocket under duress where he was nearly turned square to the left sideline where he still put some mustard on a throw down the field on a rope that was just stupid good, I have never seen that type of pass before.

He has brutal mechanics and terrible footwork (got away with it in college because of his arm, but of course DBs close/converge faster in the pros).

Seems to to play outside structure and improvise too much, will have to be more disciplined, play under more control and learn to make plays from the pocket at this level, that is a must. He is without a doubt raw and somewhat akin to a wild stallion that could take maybe another a year to "break", the very definition of a project. Although, I'll cede this point and drop it with a "we shall see"

Just some tough love about not being so reckless and taking needless shots or he may not last long. He is a great athlete with plus wheels, and will score some scrambling type TDs, but needs to be smart, pick his shots and learn to live to fight another day (another play - the best ability is AVAIL-ABILITY).

He seems to genuinely be passionate about the game with desire to be great. Father decade long MLB career (pitcher), he learned up close by example how to be a pro.

I hate to make the comparison because he was unique, and so many things would have to break optimally, but in terms of being a fearless gun slinger, just can't help but see some Favre in him.

and this is a negative... I will take 2 Superbowl appearances and one win in the next 8 years...

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Dayze

I’ve never been more confident in my belief that there is a large percentage of Chiefs fans that wouldn’t recognize legit QB talent if their life depended on it.

Must be from an entire generation of watching above averageQB play at best, and backup talent starting for the Chiefs at worst, and getting bounced when it counts (both in regular season and post season).

If anyone watched yesterday and didn’t immediately recognize the Grand Canyon sized talent difference at QB compared to the last 30 Year’s of what the Chiefs have trotted out at QB......then I don’t think they’ll ever recognize it.

Just wait until Pat gets a full off season to continue to build on what he’s already done in terms of playbook, etc. and is able to get reps with starters.

90% of Chiefs fans have never seen an elite QB in his prime.

[CrowbarMan]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Odds are Andy wanted to slow down their pass rush against the scrub O-Line with lots of play action. Simple concept.

No. He has never taken snaps behind center before joining the NFL. He did not take an under center drop without play action all preseason or against the Broncos. It must still be a work in progress.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Eveyone (myself included) is gushing about him, as much as I've ever seen anyone fawned over.

Seems wired with the "right stuff" for QBs. Whatever the "it" factor is, he seems to have it. Seems very bright and well spoken (didn't know he was a 4.0 student). Humble, from what I have read knows he has a lot to learn and seems eager to get started. A "rocket" arm, I have to think he has one of the strongest arms in the league. (watched youtube highlights) He made one throw moving to the left out of the pocket under duress where he was nearly turned square to the left sideline where he still put some mustard on a throw down the field on a rope that was just stupid good, I have never seen that type of pass before.

He has brutal mechanics and terrible footwork (got away with it in college because of his arm, but of course DBs close/converge faster in the pros).

Seems to to play outside structure and improvise too much, will have to be more disciplined, play under more control and learn to make plays from the pocket at this level, that is a must. He is without a doubt raw and somewhat akin to a wild stallion that could take maybe another a year to "break", the very definition of a project. Although, I'll cede this point and drop it with a "we shall see"

Just some tough love about not being so reckless and taking needless shots or he may not last long. He is a great athlete with plus wheels, and will score some scrambling type TDs, but needs to be smart, pick his shots and learn to live to fight another day (another play - the best ability is AVAIL-ABILITY).

He seems to genuinely be passionate about the game with desire to be great. Father decade long MLB career (pitcher), he learned up close by example how to be a pro.

I hate to make the comparison because he was unique, and so many things would have to break optimally, but in terms of being a fearless gun slinger, just can't help but see some Favre in him.

Did you watch his preseason games? You're talking about him improvising too much, but that's really not the case. He's going to do it SOME of the time because he can. That's what the coaches WANT him to do. It's that ability that could turn him into a top 3 QB in the league some day. And yesterday Mahomes kept a pretty damn good lid on wanting to break out of the pocket every play and just play sandlot football.

Yesterday I saw INSANE improvement over his preseason games in terms of his confidence in the huddle and knowledge of where each and every play was going. The dude only gets like 2-3 snaps with the team in weekly practice.

Yes, it's unknown, but how anybody can compare where he was at in preseason to what he achieved yesterday and NOT think that Mahomes is on track to be a starting QB in 2018 is just being a stupid sourpuss. He'll have a full offseason, starter's reps in OTAs, training camp, preseason, AND with nearly 100% of weekly practice snaps before each game. The leap he took from preseason to yesterday was big, but the one from yesterday to Week 1 of the regular season could be just as big, if not bigger.