***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

"they"

Obviously another veiled Trump attack. Dont play stupid.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But here's the thing - the only hospitals demonstrating a significant capacity issue right now are in NY and indications now are that sufficient PPE has been secured to battle this to it's apex in NY.

So...dafuq?

WERE they in dire straights? Sure seems that way. Were they ignored? No, and help is inbound.

So seriously - what the hell? This idea that there's someone to blame for everything and "THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE IN AMERICA!!!!" is nutty.

Math is the same here as it is anywhere else. We're responding damn well and yet all some want to do is bitch.

I posted what my daughter told me today, they are rationing supplies and only get 1 PPE per day. It hasn't even ramped up yet in KC and they were told they expect to peak in mid May but their ICU is almost full of COVID patients now. Sharing PPE goes against every infectious disease protocol ever written.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Ideally, discredit any active case. Use only deaths + recoveries + any asymptomatic + symptomatic person who has recovered.

Great. So using those numbers, what's the CFR?

[petegz28]

We have officially passed Italy in total cases but as many have stated we are faring far, far better.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

http://betsymccaughey.com/we-didnt-h...-for-pandemic/

Read this and take from it what you like but NY specifically was warned in 2015 they didn't have enough supplies for a pandemic and they ignored it for the most part.

Great post. Somone should have done something in 15 when this was brought up.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We have officially passed Italy in total cases but as many have stated we are faring far, far better.

Stupid metric anyway.

The US has five times as many people.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Stupid metric anyway.

The US has five times as many people.

Agreed. Which is why I hated every time people were all "we're going to be Italy!!"

Right now they are unfortunately losing people at almost a 10% rate. We are between 1%-1.5%

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Stupid metric anyway.

The US has five times as many people.

No it isn't. They have a higher population density than the US does. When it comes to disease transmission density is more important than total polulation.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Agreed. Which is why I hated every time people were all "we're going to be Italy!!"

Right now they are unfortunately losing people at almost a 10% rate. We are between 1%-1.5%

A better way of looking at it is the US is averaging 3 deaths /1MM total population, Italy is at ****ing 124/ 1MM.

We aren't going to ever see a 40X climb in deaths. That would be 2.6MM people dead by comparison.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Stupid metric anyway.

The US has five times as many people.

Population density of the USA = 87/square mile
Population density of Italy = 518/square mile

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

A better way of looking at it is the US is averaging 3 deaths /1MM total population, Italy is at ****ing 124/ 1MM.

We aren't going to ever see a 40X climb in deaths.

Be careful with that kind of thinking. We saw a 40X climb in deaths in the past 2.5 weeks.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I posted what my daughter told me today, they are rationing supplies and only get 1 PPE per day. It hasn't even ramped up yet in KC and they were told they expect to peak in mid May but their ICU is almost full of COVID patients now. Sharing PPE goes against every infectious disease protocol ever written.

And what's going to continue to have to happen is that supply will have to follow demand.

It's odd to me that their ICU is packed unless they're just a small hospital. MU has something like 80 critical care beds and as of last night they had 3 in ICU, despite some of the best testing rates in the region.

And yeah, sharing PPE isn't great. It's a stop-gap that is being addressed on a daily basis. And while sharing PPE goes against protocol, protocol is also ideal situation stuff. Doing things like layering a basic surgical mask over an N95 mask and then swapping out the surgical masks between patients isn't the best thing to do...but it's not a facially awful thing to do either. If ideal scenarios yield a 95% reduction in transmission and the 'layered' approach yields a 70% reduction - clearly the former is what you base your protocol on.

But the latter isn't shite. Nor is it permanent.

At this point we can't let perfect be the enemy of good. Supply chains and manufacturing capabilities are being ramped up on a wartime scale. It's coming. The concerns are heard and are being addressed.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Be careful with that kind of thinking. We saw a 40X climb in deaths in the past 2.5 weeks.

That's equal to 2.6MM people dying dude.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

That's equal to 2.6MM people dying dude.

1027 deaths x 40 = 40k deaths. That's pretty likely at this point.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Donger

Population density of the USA = 87/square mile
Population density of Italy = 518/square mile

https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/02...ensity/552815/