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**Buehler445** · 11-21-2018, 12:19 AM

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB

Spoiler!

Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR

Spoiler!

There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL

Spoiler!

That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush

Spoiler!

We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner

Spoiler!

I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.

11-21-2018, 12:19 AM	Topic Starter
Buehler445 Supporter Buehler445's Avatar Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Scott City KS	Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts. I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com. RB Spoiler! Todd Gurley 5 years $57.5M ($14.375M avg) $21.95M Guaranteed. David Johnson 3 years $39M ($13 avg) $24.69M Guaranteed Devonta Freeman 5 years $41.25M ($8.25M avg) $18.3 Guaranteed LeSean McCoy 5 years $40.05M ($8.01M avg) $18.25 Guaranteed Saquon Barkley 5 years $31.2 M (7.8M avg) $31.2 Guaranteed (pending option) Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck. WR Spoiler! OBJ 5 years $90M ($18M avg) $40.96M Guaranteed Antonio Brown 4 years $68M ($17M avg) $19M Guaranteed Mike Evans 5 years $82M ($16.5M avg) $38.3M Guaranteed DeAndre Hopkins 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $36.5M Guaranteed Brandin Cooks 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $20.46M Guaranteed There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know. DL Spoiler! Aaron Donald 6 years $135M ($22.5M avg) $50M Guaranteed Ezekiel Ansah 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise) Demarcus Lawrence 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise) Fletcher Cox 6 years $102.6M ($17.1M avg) $36.3M Guaranteed JJ Watt 7 years $100M ($16.7M avg) $20.9M Guaranteed That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there. Pass Rush Spoiler! Khalil Mack 6 years $141M ($23.5M avg) $60M Guaranteed Von Miller 5 years $114M (19.1M avg) $42M Guaranteed (** Donk Forever) Oliver Vernon 4 years $85M ($17M avg) $40M Guaranteed Justin Houston 5 years $101M ($16.8M avg) $32.5M Guaranteed Chandler Jones 4 Years $82.5M ($16.5M avg) $31M Guaranteed. We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another motherer who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes. Corner Spoiler!** Josh Norman 5 Years $75M ($15M avg) $36.5M Guaranteed. Trumaine Johnson 5 Years $72.5M ($14.5M avg) $34M Guarnteed. Xavier Rhodes 5 years $70.1M (14M avg) $20M Guaranteed Patrick Peterson 5 years $70M (14M avg) $16.5M Guaranteed Kyle Fuller 4 years $56M ($14M avg) $18M Guaranteed I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good. I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it. That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap. My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.
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