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Old 11-21-2018, 12:19 AM  
Buehler445 Buehler445 is online now
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Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts
There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB
Spoiler!


Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR
Spoiler!


There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL
Spoiler!


That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush
Spoiler!


We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner
Spoiler!


I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:10 PM   #106
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Looking at possible FA corners...it’s sbsolutely debatable if we should keep Steven Nelson or not. He’s quite possibly the best FA option on the market. Veach might be wise to extend him sooner rather than later.

If I’m running the team, I’m seeing if I can retain Bailey, Sherman and Nelson on reasonable deals (if they want too much let em walk and get a comp pick in 2020 for them) franchising Ford and letting the rest hit FA...hoping for good comp picks from Conley and Morse.
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:14 PM   #107
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I think people are too upset about Houston and Berry. We must remember the good things that have happened with paying players.

Kelce has been 100% worth the money. Schwartz has never missed a snap in his career. Fisher is an average tackle who has played well minus 1 game and has played something like 50 straight games without injury.

It sucks what happened to Justin Houston. That was a terrible, unlucky injury. If that didn’t happen, would we be singing a different tune about him?

As for Berry, I think that’s a valuable lesson that we shouldn’t pay big money or a long (more than 3 year deal) to a player on his 3rd contract.
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:26 PM   #108
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Guys I’m targeting in FA...if their respective position guy in KC is allowed to walk.

Landon Collins
Earl Thomas
Honey Badger
Lamarcus Joyner
Shane Rey/Shaq Barrett
Kareem Jackson
Ronald Darby
Demarcus Lawrence
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:27 PM   #109
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I would pass on Thomas at this point I think
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:27 PM   #110
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I think people are too upset about Houston and Berry. We must remember the good things that have happened with paying players.

Kelce has been 100% worth the money. Schwartz has never missed a snap in his career. Fisher is an average tackle who has played well minus 1 game and has played something like 50 straight games without injury.

It sucks what happened to Justin Houston. That was a terrible, unlucky injury. If that didn’t happen, would we be singing a different tune about him?

As for Berry, I think that’s a valuable lesson that we shouldn’t pay big money or a long (more than 3 year deal) to a player on his 3rd contract.
This was Eric’s 2nd contract
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:29 PM   #111
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I would pass on Thomas at this point I think
Why?

Imo he’s probably the top guy I’d target. He’s a good tackler and is a ballhawk that changes games. He should also be affordable and would allow us to possibly have 2 elite safeties to take away the deep pass if Berry returns to form.
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:32 PM   #112
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Why?

Imo he’s probably the top guy I’d target. He’s a good tackler and is a ballhawk that changes games.
Who knows how that leg is going to go, he's older , he's probably going to want 50 million
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:38 PM   #113
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Who knows how that leg is going to go, he's older , he's probably going to want 50 million
Nobody’s giving a 30 year old safety 50m. Broken bones heal stronger than before the break and he’s been a very reliable player in his career

He will be lucky to get 3 years in the mid 20s...if that.
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:41 PM   #114
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Nobody’s giving a 30 year old safety 50m.

He will be lucky to get 3 years in the mid 20s...if that.
We'll see. He's going to get more than mid 20s IMO
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:42 PM   #115
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But if he would sign for 3 and 21-25 million I might change my stance on it
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:45 PM   #116
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Looking at possible FA corners...it’s sbsolutely debatable if we should keep Steven Nelson or not. He’s quite possibly the best FA option on the market. Veach might be wise to extend him sooner rather than later.

If I’m running the team, I’m seeing if I can retain Bailey, Sherman and Nelson on reasonable deals (if they want too much let em walk and get a comp pick in 2020 for them) franchising Ford and letting the rest hit FA...hoping for good comp picks from Conley and Morse.
I love Sherman but we almost never use a fullback anymore.

I don't like Nelson at all, but he's a cornerback and they are so important. We pretty much have to keep him unless Veach goes out and finds a replacement.
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:45 PM   #117
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We'll see. He's going to get more than mid 20s IMO
Dude...look what the league said about safeties over the last year...

NY and TB put their young safeties on the market.

Honey Badger got peanuts

Numerous good safeties were still FAs well into free agency and into the PS and even regular season.
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:48 PM   #118
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I love Sherman but we almost never use a fullback anymore.

I don't like Nelson at all, but he's a cornerback and they are so important. We pretty much have to keep him unless Veach goes out and finds a replacement.
KC has nobody but Fuller at corner after this year.

They need to with keep him or replace him with something...and this FA class of corners is very thin...and that’s if the guys that might be available don’t re-sign with their current teams or go for the money in FA from any of the few teams with 100m in cap space.

The reality is Veach should be trying to extend Nelson for a reasonable deal.
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:49 PM   #119
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Dude...look what the league said about safeties over the last year...

NY and TB put their young safeties on the market.

Honey Badger got peanuts

Numerous good safeties were still FAs well into free agency and into the PS and even regular season.
You might be right.

I just think earl is going to get paid. Every year and player are different
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:49 PM   #120
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Honey badger isn't anywhere near the same level as earl Thomas either
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