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Old 11-21-2018, 12:19 AM  
Buehler445 Buehler445 is online now
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Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB
Spoiler!


Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR
Spoiler!


There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL
Spoiler!


That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush
Spoiler!


We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner
Spoiler!


I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:00 AM   #46
Buehler445 Buehler445 is online now
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Originally Posted by O.city View Post
I was gonna day just that Buehler. 4 quarters don’t always equal a dollar.

It’s tough but some guys you can’t replace
A more succinct metaphor is two bills don’t always equal $100.

Math people!
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:01 AM   #47
Buehler445 Buehler445 is online now
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I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.
I’d wager Kelce is on his last contract with KC. He’s making big money now, has concussions, and will be on the downside when his contract expires.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:03 AM   #48
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I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.
I’d love to add a few years for Kelce. He’ll be 32, so want to make sure he doesn’t start to break down, but he seems like he could be one of those guys that plays late into his 30s at a high level.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:04 AM   #49
notorious notorious is offline
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I will take a reduction in offense if we can balance the team.

Can you accept a reduction in offense if it means getting 2 really good players on defense?
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:04 AM   #50
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Hill should be the #1 priority this off season. I'd sign him to his second contract but not a 3rd contract. I'd also sign Chris Jones. I think the only way to play defense now is to rush the passer with ball hawking DB's and the new lean Chris Jones is becoming one of the best on the DL in the league.

They don't want to wait till next year for either of them.
Chris Jones is a prime example of what I’m talking about. He’s had a lot of games where he disappears. I get where we are all coming from given our luck with DL but I don’t see the value there. I say that as he has a pretty ridiculous Sack streak on so I’m open to the idea that I may be full of shit.

But if he wants Donald money he needs to get it elsewhere IMO.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:05 AM   #51
notorious notorious is offline
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I’d wager Kelce is on his last contract with KC. He’s making big money now, has concussions, and will be on the downside when his contract expires.
Yeah, I was on the fence a little with Kelce. His style of play lends that he will end up on the cart eventually.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:11 AM   #52
pugsnotdrugs19 pugsnotdrugs19 is offline
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I think if you tag Ford next year and he replicates what he has done this season so far, you may go ahead and replace Houston’s contract with a new one for him.

But idk if it will be financially feasible at that point or not.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:14 AM   #53
RunKC RunKC is offline
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
I think if you tag Ford next year and he replicates what he has done this season so far, you may go ahead and replace Houston’s contract with a new one for him.
I think Chris Jones is getting Houston’s money, but I hope they can make it work.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:15 AM   #54
pugsnotdrugs19 pugsnotdrugs19 is offline
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This whole conversation really makes you appreciate the roster we currently have. Window is wide open.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:19 AM   #55
Gravedigger Gravedigger is online now
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Franchise Ford. Pay Jones. Pay Hill. Cut Houston, or renegotiate way down. Cut Berry, or settle through a buyout. Focus on Defense and Oline in the draft.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:25 AM   #56
Amnorix Amnorix is offline
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Coincidentally Belichick hasn’t paid WRs top money as far as I know. Moss and Stalworth were on criminally small contracts and the short white guy crew isn’t making big money.

BB paid Gronk top money -- he was the highest paid TE in the NFL for a while.

Let's face it, other than Moss, the Patriots haven't had a WR that was remotely worth top money. Cooks makes it now, but, I mean, does anything think he's a top 5 WR? He's paid like he is, and he's really good, but he'll never wear a Gold Jacket.

And half of the Patriots run with BB was "old NFL", before all these rules changes that make Hill twice as dangerous as he would've been 10-15 years ago.

I think you MUST keep Hill tbh. 25 and entering his prime, with an elite QB. Those are two big pieces to any championship formula.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:29 AM   #57
Amnorix Amnorix is offline
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
This whole conversation really makes you appreciate the roster we currently have. Window is wide open.

ESPECIALLY while Mahomes is dramatically underpaid. That's alot of spare cheddah to throw around to do things precisely like extend Hill or bring in someone that you think fits a key need.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:35 AM   #58
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Something else to keep in mind is paying our defensive guys and nobody on offense outside of Tyreek/Mahomes.

Look at all the talent Andy is able to find through the draft since he became a coach?

Brian Westbrook
DeSean Jackson
Brett Celek
Jeremy Maclin
DeSean Jackson
Donovan McNabb
Jason Kelce
Travis Kelce
Kareem Hunt
Tyreek Hill
LDT

Also a few steals for production like Albert Wilson and Zach Fulton.

Morse and LDT are out and we are fine this year. Coincidence? I think Andy will keep talent on the offense at a low price. It’s the defense that has been worrisome.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:36 AM   #59
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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Man, I’m getting tired of saying this but it has to be said again.......

the Chiefs have an option year in 2021 to keep Mahomes on his rookie contract. It was a 5 year contract if the Chiefs want that option year.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:40 AM   #60
pugsnotdrugs19 pugsnotdrugs19 is offline
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Man, I’m getting tired of saying this but it has to be said again.......

the Chiefs have an option year in 2021 to keep Mahomes on his rookie contract. It was a 5 year contract if the Chiefs want that option year.
An option that will still probably put his cap hit around or beyond $20M.

You may as well just extend him as fast as possible. Get ahead of it and pay less.
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