Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts

[Buehler445]

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB

Spoiler!

Todd Gurley 5 years $57.5M ($14.375M avg) $21.95M Guaranteed.
David Johnson 3 years $39M ($13 avg) $24.69M Guaranteed
Devonta Freeman 5 years $41.25M ($8.25M avg) $18.3 Guaranteed
LeSean McCoy 5 years $40.05M ($8.01M avg) $18.25 Guaranteed
Saquon Barkley 5 years $31.2 M (7.8M avg) $31.2 Guaranteed (pending option)

Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR

Spoiler!

OBJ 5 years $90M ($18M avg) $40.96M Guaranteed
Antonio Brown 4 years $68M ($17M avg) $19M Guaranteed
Mike Evans 5 years $82M ($16.5M avg) $38.3M Guaranteed
DeAndre Hopkins 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $36.5M Guaranteed
Brandin Cooks 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $20.46M Guaranteed

There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL

Spoiler!

Aaron Donald 6 years $135M ($22.5M avg) $50M Guaranteed
Ezekiel Ansah 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise)
Demarcus Lawrence 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise)
Fletcher Cox 6 years $102.6M ($17.1M avg) $36.3M Guaranteed
JJ Watt 7 years $100M ($16.7M avg) $20.9M Guaranteed

That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush

Spoiler!

Khalil Mack 6 years $141M ($23.5M avg) $60M Guaranteed
Von Miller 5 years $114M (19.1M avg) $42M Guaranteed (**** Donk Forever)
Oliver Vernon 4 years $85M ($17M avg) $40M Guaranteed
Justin Houston 5 years $101M ($16.8M avg) $32.5M Guaranteed
Chandler Jones 4 Years $82.5M ($16.5M avg) $31M Guaranteed.

We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner

Spoiler!

Josh Norman 5 Years $75M ($15M avg) $36.5M Guaranteed.
Trumaine Johnson 5 Years $72.5M ($14.5M avg) $34M Guarnteed.
Xavier Rhodes 5 years $70.1M (14M avg) $20M Guaranteed
Patrick Peterson 5 years $70M (14M avg) $16.5M Guaranteed
Kyle Fuller 4 years $56M ($14M avg) $18M Guaranteed

I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Yep... I think you're looking somewhere in the 4/60-5/75 range for a Jones extension, a 5/90 with Hill, and 5/85 with Ford.

Personally, I'd extend Jones and Hill this offseason to put some of the bonus money onto their rookie deals and lower the caps a tad in the extension years. I'd franchise Ford and try to trade him, and if that doesn't work out then let him walk after 2019. I'd sign Ford if it weren't for Houston's huge contract at the same position but I don't think a team can eat two of them simultaneously with all the other contracts coming due.

Well the thing is that the rest of this season is going to have a huge impact on all of this.

If this team does pull it off and wins a Super Bowl, all of these guys are going to expect that much more. If Jones is playing like he is right now all the way through the playoffs, he’s going to be able to ask for $100M when all is said and done. Same with Hill.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd rather have Mathieu than Thomas, even with Thomas being a better player. Age and everything just isn't worth it.

I'd attack the secondary in the draft

Personally, I'd go after Tre Boston. He's been just as productive as either of them and he's only 26 (like Mathieu) and on a 1-year $2.5 million deal with Arizona. He'll look to get out of there and, after the safety market in 2018 dipped, he may just sign on for a relatively friendly deal if it's long-term.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Well the thing is that the rest of this season is going to have a huge impact on all of this.

If this team does pull it off and wins a Super Bowl, all of these guys are going to expect that much more. If Jones is playing like he is right now all the way through the playoffs, he’s going to be able to ask for $100M when all is said and done. Same with Hill.

Jones is playing well but he isn't anywhere near the level of Aaron Donald nor JJ Watt (esp when he got his), so I can't fathom any way he touches $100 m at this point. Hill though, he could.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Jones is playing well but he isn't anywhere near the level of Aaron Donald nor JJ Watt (esp when he got his), so I can't fathom any way he touches $100 m at this point. Hill though, he could.

Watt’s contract is archaic at this point in NFL terms. Donald and Mack got what, $135-$140M?

Jones can absolutely make the argument that he’s worth 100 if he stays on this tear and this team wins a title.

[38yrsfan]

Welcome to the real world. Want to actually be serious? Try applying your angst to the world of the working.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Watt’s contract is archaic at this point in NFL terms. Donald and Mack got what, $135-$140M?

Jones can absolutely make the argument that he’s worth 100 if he stays on this tear and this team wins a title.

Tear? He's got sacks but he isn't in those guy's realm of play. He doesn't disrupt the LOS every single play like those guys do. He's not the one guy you absolutely can't miss a snap on because he'll eat your lunch. You watched Aaron Donald play the other night. How many plays did the O-line get where they didn't need to keep their heads on a swivel and account for him because he was wreaking havoc? Jones runs way too hot and cold. He's more like Jurrell Casey than anywhere near Donald or Mack.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Tear? He's got sacks but he isn't in those guy's realm of play. He doesn't disrupt the LOS every single play like those guys do. He's not the one guy you absolutely can't miss a snap on because he'll eat your lunch. You watched Aaron Donald play the other night. How many plays did the O-line get where they didn't need to keep their heads on a swivel and account for him because he was wreaking havoc? Jones runs way too hot and cold. He's more like Jurrell Casey than anywhere near Donald or Mack.

Idk about that man. He was absolutely throttling Roger Saffold’s ass time and time again Monday night, as well as the center a few times. They couldn’t block him with one guy and if the refs had called holding, he would have drawn 2 or 3 of those easily that were obvious.

[prhom]

Totally agree with the OP. QB is obviously a position where if you truly have a great one, you pay them whatever. For all intents and purposes, you can’t win a SB without a really good one, and it helps even more to have a great one. Mahomes is clearly headed towards greatness so he will be the top paid QB and that’s fine. He may also help us save some money elsewhere because FAs will want to come play with him just for the chance at doing great things. We saw it with Manning and the Broncos and Brady with the Pats. Those teams don’t hand out many top contracts, but got reasonable deals for some really good players because of who plays QB.

As for other positions, I think it comes down to how they impact other players on the team. The concept being that guys who allow you to get by with leaser talent elsewhere are more valuable and can be paid more because you save elsewhere. Hill is a good example. His speed and quickness draws a lot of attention away from other positions. When used as a decoy, he is very effective at affecting the defense. He is also able to produce even after teams started to realize his ability and game plan for it.

Affecting the opposing teams’ plans AND producing is a good indicator that a player is worth the money. Age and injury history should factor in and also trade value. If a player can be traded for multiple first or second rounders, then it really makes it harder to justify, in my opinion.

The Khalil Mack trade is one that I personally agreed with for the Raiders. I just didn’t see the kind of player that has the characteristics above. I think that in the end we will say that the Raiders will, or could, have gotten more talent with the picks than keeping Mack. They might screw up the picks, but I think good tenant will be available.

There is also the question of availability when handing out top contracts. How many games played do you get for your salary cap dollar? You are investing a lot of money in one player and when that one player is injured, 100% of that money is injured. If you have two players splitting that money and one gets hurt, only 50% is injured. You still have the other 50% working for you. If injury probability is the same risk for all players, the probability that one player will be injured is higher than the probability that two other players will both be injured at the same time. It puts the entire team at risk when huge amounts of cap space are tied up with a few star players. When those guys go out, not only are they replaced with less than average guys, but the previously average guys around them play worse than usual because they try to compensate but can’t and make mistakes as a result.

[jaa1025]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Chris Jones is a prime example of what I’m talking about. He’s had a lot of games where he disappears. I get where we are all coming from given our luck with DL but I don’t see the value there. I say that as he has a pretty ridiculous Sack streak on so I’m open to the idea that I may be full of shit.

But if he wants Donald money he needs to get it elsewhere IMO.

Chris Jones has been healthy with no signs of any deteriorating type of injury history (Poe w/ Back, Dee Ford w/ 2 back surgeries, Berry Cancer, Houston with multiple injuries before signing). He's the type of player you sign to the second contract and do it before their contract year so they aren't stuck like they were with Berry and Houston. This year, he hasn't disappeared at all and I think that has everything to do with his lower weight. Last year, he had some off games though.

He's every bit as good as Joey Bosa, Fletcher Cox, JJ Watt (this year). He's not on Donald's tier but no one is.

[Bump]

I know that nobody is going to want to pay another player, with the exception of Mahomes of course, after Houston and Berry. But it's going to happen someday.

[007]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.

Who is his agent? Serious question.

[SAUTO]

Steinberg I think

[Buckweath]

Not going to go through all the 10 pages but Fuller is also a must keep IMO.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Go ahead and take one minute out of your time watch Chris Jones absolutely destroying linemen, QBs, and RBs in the last month or two. This guy is becoming a dominant player.

https://twitter.com/realmnchiefsfan/...175489024?s=21

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Go ahead and take one minute out of your time watch Chris Jones absolutely destroying linemen, QBs, and RBs in the last month or two. This guy is becoming a dominant player.

https://twitter.com/realmnchiefsfan/...175489024?s=21

Chris Jones is one of the most valuable assets in the league. Only Aaron Donald and JJ Watt are better rushers from the interior (Watt plays that role frequently).

I would offer him an $80 million contract. After the 2 listed above making $100+ million, guys like Tuitt and Casey make $60 million. Maybe something a little higher than Danielle Hunter’s contract.

I think the Chiefs need to follow this structure:

Checklist for building a roster in today's NFL
Role/Number of players
QB (1)
Pass rusher (2)
Off Playmaker (3)
Def Playmaker (3)
Quality OL (3)

That's where I'd start. Once you fill those 12 spots, you'll have an outstanding foundation.

We'll discuss on today's MTS Podcast

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) November 20, 2018

This is going to be a very good defensive class. I’d go for a good pass rusher and DB that is a ball hawk. Then the Peters pick can be used for an offensive weapon or OL if need be.