David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[Perineum Ripper]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

First of all we have already gotten to the divisional rd twice with Smitty and won a playoff gm (should have won the Colts playoff gm. Smitty played great) so to say we are not going anywhere with the guy has already been proven false. Not going anywhere is not making the playoffs, making the playoffs is an accomplishment. It's not the ultimate goal and it gets old fast once you get used to it but it always nice to get there.

Regular season is like sitting in the driveway of the hot girl you have always wanted to bang house

Playoffs is you make it inside her house

Divisional is making it to the bedroom

Super Bowl is getting to bang her like all the porn you watched preparing for this night

Winning is getting to finish on her face and take pictures

If you are not making it to the banging you did nothing but waste time and end up alone and ****ing yourself as you cry in the shower

Some of us aren’t happy driving to the house to have popcorn and take a tour of her house like you and others who settle for the participation trophy of making it to the house

[BigBeauford]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

No I don't know more than him but Reid does and Reid clearly thinks Smitty should be starting.

I am not saying you guys on here don't have a right to disagree with Reids decision to start Smitty over Mahomes. You do. But lets be honest here and realize that you are probably wrong. Reid was a former QB coach for Christs sakes.

Reid also knows a hell of a lot more about where Mahomes is at as an NFL QB than you guys do. If he should be starting, Reid would do it in a heartbeat. Why wouldn't he?

Or he doesnt want to admit his mistake with Smith, and would rather be the captain going down with the ship. Its not like this hasnt happened before with Pioli and Cassel.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by BigBeauford

Or he doesnt want to admit his mistake with Smith, and would rather be the captain going down with the ship. Its not like this hasnt happened before with Pioli and Cassel.

Reid always admits his mistakes and takes the blame. Reid may have a lot of faults but not taking responsibility is certainly not one of them.

Fail post.

Originally Posted by mac459

Regular season is like sitting in the driveway of the hot girl you have always wanted to bang house

Playoffs is you make it inside her house

Divisional is making it to the bedroom

Super Bowl is getting to bang her like all the porn you watched preparing for this night

Winning is getting to finish on her face and take pictures

If you are not making it to the banging you did nothing but waste time and end up alone and ****ing yourself as you cry in the shower

Some of us aren’t happy driving to the house to have popcorn and take a tour of her house like you and others who settle for the participation trophy of making it to the house

I want to win the SB as much as any fan here but to say we can't accomplish that with Smitty is false. It's been done by other teams with worse QBs. End of the day football is and always will be a team game.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

• Most obvious example is the old P Manning that won with the Broncos.
• Joe Flacco isn't better than Alex. He won it.
• Russell Wilson isn't much better than Smitty.
• Big Ben earlier in his career wasn't that great and he certainly isn't having a better season than Alex right now.

Gee, I wonder what all of those teams had in common? What could it be?

[prhom]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

So we can win a SB with Smitty, you can win a SB with almost any QB.

#GoChiefs

I think we’ve all agreed at some point over the last few years that Smith COULD win a SB on the right team, in the right situation. I honestly even thought earlier this year we might have such a team this season. However, I think most of us have now realized that the loss of Berry, vaporization of our pass rush, and unfixed run defense have left us with a defense that bears no resemblance to those in years past. A strong, playmaking, scoring defense is one thing that I think Smith must have to win a SB.

So yes, Smith COULD win a SB, but the Chiefs now lack some of the key requirements for him to do so. Mahomes probably won’t win the SB for us this year either. It would take special quarterbacking to overcome our defensive weaknesses. However, Smith sure as hell isnt going to do it or he would have been doing already over the last 5 games.

People’s side in this debate comes down to what kind of personality they have. Think of driving along in your car and you come up to a traffic jam that is moving slowly but not stopped. You are in a place you don’t know very well and don’t have access to google maps. There are side roads leading off all over the place with no traffic on them. You think they will take you where you want to go, but can’t be completely sure. Do you take off and try to find a way around or do you just sit there in traffic moving slowly along and stick it out? This franchise has been sitting in traffic for years and those of us who would take off on the side roads are anxious to get out of the jam and try a new way. We’ve done the slow and steady thing already and it’s boring as hell. Football is supposed to be fun and unpredictable. Let’s have some fun already. You can’t tell me you have been enjoying Chiefs football over the last 5 games.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

We don't have a QB problem with Alex Smith. He's a good QB.

Truth is Chiefs fanbase is mostly a bunch of whining b**ches. Years of frustration has made a lot of us that way. I get it but it's kind of pathetic at times.



I think that was a good post but that last part is frequently said on here and it drives me nuts because it is simply not true.

First of all we have already gotten to the divisional rd twice with Smitty and won a playoff gm (should have won the Colts playoff gm. Smitty played great) so to say we are not going anywhere with the guy has already been proven false. Not going anywhere is not making the playoffs, making the playoffs is an accomplishment. It's not the ultimate goal and it gets old fast once you get used to it but it always nice to get there.

Second there have been QBs not as good as Alex 'All I do is win in the regular season' Smith that have won the SB. Most obvious example is the old P Manning that won with the Broncos. Joe Flacco isn't better than Alex. He won it. Russell Wilson isn't much better than Smitty. Big Ben earlier in his career wasn't that great and he certainly isn't having a better season than Alex right now.

So we can win a SB with Smitty, you can win a SB with almost any QB. Football is not an individual sport. So there are ways to win games with pretty much any QB as long as they are good (and that isn't even true look at the old P Manning) which Alex Smith clearly is.

#GoChiefs

Look, I can understand your point but I don't entirely agree with it. All of those other QBs you mentioned either were able to step up their games when the pressure was on and/or had good to great defenses. The Chiefs with Smith at QB do not have any of that. After attending the playoff game last year against Pitt last year, I had had enough. I said I would not spend another dime on the team until they addressed the glaring weakness of the QB position. They did that and I was happy. Then Alex played the best of his career to start the season and I got caught up in the excitement. Still, I have always maintained that I was still skeptical that Smith will continue that play in the playoffs. It appears that he has regressed back to his normal below average play well before the playoffs. I have no confidence that he will ever take the Chiefs anywhere.

Also, don't compare Alex with Russel Wilson or any of those other guys. They have proven to have the ability to step up their games and win. Alex has never done that.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by BigBeauford

Or he doesnt want to admit his mistake with Smith, and would rather be the captain going down with the ship. Its not like this hasnt happened before with Pioli and Cassel.

I don't buy this argument. If he didn't want to admit his mistake with Smith then they would not have traded up to draft Mahommes. This argument doesn't pass the logic test.

[KChiefs1]

Hate Cowherd but he has Alex Smith nailed.

""Alex Smith has done this to us five times, maybe four, maybe six. I'm losing count. When he looks great when the weather's good, September, October, and then when it gets cold, the guy without a great arm, when it's windy, and it's cold, and it's rainy, and it's snowing is average. Every single game he's ever played in the playoffs, except one when he won 30-0 against Brian Hoyer, didn't you think in every one of those games, he's the second-best quarterback on the field?

In his last three playoff games, he's had exactly one touchdown pass in each playoff game. His big playoff win, 30-0, took the opening kickoff for a touchdown did Kansas City against Houston, Brian Hoyer, warm weather, four touchdowns. Here's an interesting stat.

Bill Belichick always says football is about post-Thanksgiving. It's cold, it's wet, it's dreary, it's windy, it is rainy. You've got to be able to play in that weather to win Super Bowls. It doesn't matter how good you are in September and early October.

Here is Alex Smith, 35 degrees and below in his career, 5-7, 60% completion rate, under 200 yards a game, a pathetic 15 touchdowns, 10 picks, and a passer rating of 82. Do you know what his record is when it's 60 or above? His passer rating jumps to 90. His touchdowns and interceptions, 2 to 1 ratio. His record is 40-22.

Am I supposed to believe Alex Smith in the offseason had a bunch of creatinine, and he has totally jacked up now. He can throw a great deep ball. We've seen this multiple times. Certain guys, very good early, those are often guys without the howitzer, without the big arm, without the big frame.

Yet a Joe Flacco can struggle early. But in the playoffs, big strong 6' 5", 245, Joe Flacco has been pretty good. Tom Brady throws a pretty good football in cold weather, is fantastic in December and January.

I've got nothing against Alex Smith. But how much do we know in the NFL for sure? This is the team we love. I've seen Alex Smith play several playoff games late in the season. He always looks like the second-best quarterback on the field.

And if you look at his win-loss record, his completion percentage, his passing yards a game, his passer rating, and his touchdowns in cold weather, which is November, December, and January football, he's below average. Why do we keep getting fooled by stuff? So if this is the team we're absolutely sure is great, you want to make a bet they're not as good December 9th.""

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

Gee, I wonder what all of those teams had in common? What could it be?

It's pointless to bring facts to PA's attention. He's one of the dumbest homer posters on this board

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

We don't have a QB problem with Alex Smith. He's a good QB.

Truth is Chiefs fanbase is mostly a bunch of whining b**ches. Years of frustration has made a lot of us that way. I get it but it's kind of pathetic at times.

Until Alex Smith learns how to beat Zone, he is by far the biggest problem in our 5-game slide. He has played poorly in the majority of those games.

First of all we have already gotten to the divisional rd twice with Smitty and won a playoff gm (should have won the Colts playoff gm. Smitty played great) so to say we are not going anywhere with the guy has already been proven false. Not going anywhere is not making the playoffs, making the playoffs is an accomplishment. It's not the ultimate goal and it gets old fast once you get used to it but it always nice to get there.
Second there have been QBs not as good as Alex 'All I do is win in the regular season in the regular season' Smith that have won the SB. Most obvious example is the old P Manning that won with the Broncos. Joe Flacco isn't better than Alex. He won it. Russell Wilson isn't much better than Smitty. Big Ben earlier in his career wasn't that great and he certainly isn't having a better season than Alex right now.

So we can win a SB with Smitty, you can win a SB with almost any QB. Football is not an individual sport. So there are ways to win games with pretty much any QB as long as they are good (and that isn't even true look at the old P Manning) which Alex Smith clearly is.

#GoChiefs

We can do a lot worse than Alex Smith. But is that the intent? What Alex Smith gives us is, when surrounded by an outstanding defense, he gives you a decent shot at a playoff win and a very outside chance at a Super Bowl. I'm happy we had Smith. He got us the playoff win we badly needed. But it's time to move on from him. Now, if we see the Alex Smith from earlier in the year, I'm all aboard. I've always believed he has so much potential if he can ever break out of his consistent habit of game management. But we keep setting ourselves up for the same above average results over and over again. While you point out our playoff successes, most of our playoff losses were a repeat of the same dink and dunk Alex Smith we've been fighting against.

Football isn't an individual sport. So rather than complaining that all our pieces suck, I would ask what Alex Smith is doing to make his offense better. Does he get rid of the ball quickly? Not at all. Does he stretch the defense to give Hunt room to run? No. Does he consistently help his blockers by quickly and consistently spotting the hot read on a blitz? No. Does he give his receivers opportunities to make plays or does he continually reward the safety valve? I think we all see that we have plenty of playmakers on offense, but we have a QB who just can't get it done. I don't want a QB that needs an elite defense to win games. We need a QB who can carry our team a few times too.

I'm cool with giving him the rest of the season. I'll do cartwheels if he figures this thing out and good thing we're hitting this wall early. Unfortunately, I don't know that this is a problem Alex can wiggle his way out of. The only way for Alex Smith to beat this slump is to stop being Alex Smith.

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Reid always admits his mistakes and takes the blame. Reid may have a lot of faults but not taking responsibility is certainly not one of them.

Fail post.

Good thing you're not a chick, otherwise you'd fall for the "I promise not to cum in your mouth" line every time.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Lzen

Look, I can understand your point but I don't entirely agree with it. All of those other QBs you mentioned either were able to step up their games when the pressure was on and/or had good to great defenses. The Chiefs with Smith at QB do not have any of that. After attending the playoff game last year against Pitt last year, I had had enough. I said I would not spend another dime on the team until they addressed the glaring weakness of the QB position. They did that and I was happy. Then Alex played the best of his career to start the season and I got caught up in the excitement. Still, I have always maintained that I was still skeptical that Smith will continue that play in the playoffs. It appears that he has regressed back to his normal below average play well before the playoffs. I have no confidence that he will ever take the Chiefs anywhere.

Also, don't compare Alex with Russel Wilson or any of those other guys. They have proven to have the ability to step up their games and win. Alex has never done that.

I understand your frustration man. Believe me I get it but there are plenty of ways to win a SB. Blaming one player, who is clearly a good QB, in a team game like football for a teams failures isn't fair.

We didn't lose that Steelers game because of Alex Smith. He had a bad game but overall he played pretty much just as well as Big Ben did. Difference was Bell ran all over us while our running game was pretty much nonexistent.

And Alex Smith has stepped his game up in the playoffs plenty of times. Check out his playoff stats. They speak for themselves.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

I understand your frustration man.

Do you? How long have you been a Chiefs fan?

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

I understand your frustration man. Believe me I get it but there are plenty of ways to win a SB. Blaming one player, who is clearly a good QB, in a team game like football for a teams failures isn't fair.

We didn't lose that Steelers game because of Alex Smith. He had a bad game but overall he played pretty much just as well as Big Ben did. Difference was Bell ran all over us while our running game was pretty much nonexistent.

And Alex Smith has stepped his game up in the playoffs plenty of times. Check out his playoff stats. They speak for themselves.

I don't know how anyone can watch our steelers playoff loss and not believe that Alex Smith was by far the #1 reason we lost. Of course it isn't the only reason. But it was the main reason.

[Easy 6]

Seems pretty wild for a QB to come out and throw a former teammate under the bus like that, he better not be expecting a Christmas card from the Smith household this year

I know Reid benched McNabb and others, but its just hard to see him doing it in this instance IMO