...

Deberg_1990 · 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.

The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

T-post Tom · 11-21-2017, 11:24 PM

Trying to help his brother out and create dissension on a division rival. Shame on you sir.

RobBlake · 11-22-2017, 03:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Daddy Hate

And you would like that. But why? Smith isn't retiring a Chief, and the fans are sick to death of him as a player.
The only positive in that scenario, is that it assures that Mahomes will not sustain an injury.

Nothing more.

Honestly I just wanna see good football. I’m a disgruntled fan for a multitude of reasons. I thoroughly enjoyed beginning of the season as Alex played at his peak. But I’m honestly over it. I would like to see mahomes lead a team. Logically, Andy won’t make that switch unless alex doesn’t improve his play, and chiefs are eliminated

Mizzou_8541 · 11-22-2017, 06:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bewbies

I can't wait to hear people wonder what changed when the line looks awesome with a competent QB standing behind them.

"Wow, the line looks so much better. Doing X made a big difference!"

Or, rather, true fans saying, “well, if the line played like this for Alex Smith, we’d be super bowl champs!!!”

ARROW2 · 11-22-2017, 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou_8541

Or, rather, true fans saying, “well, if the line played like this for Alex Smith, we’d be super bowl champs!!!”

I remember when.upgrading to kyle ****ing Orton made the line look better than with cassell. Lol

Sweet Daddy Hate · 11-22-2017, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou_8541

Or, rather, true fans saying, “well, if the line played like this for Alex Smith, we’d be super bowl champs!!!”

Yep.

And it will spread across the roster:

"Where was ( player X ) when ALEX WAS THE QB"?!?!?!?!?!

And-a boo-hoo-hoo!
And-a wella-wella hey!

Reerun_KC · 11-22-2017, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

You just called me a young woman.

Show us your boobs?

**Lzen** · 11-22-2017, 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

Reversion to the mean.

Smith was playing at an MVP level the first 5 games. He's come back down to earth now.

I'd argue he had 4 great games, 3 respectable games, and 2 garbage games.

To this point Alex has played better than I thought he would. To this point our record is better than I thought it would be.

It should be clear now that this team has the holes we thought it did before the season...

Which games are you calling great? I would say NE, Philly, and Washington. He has played like garbage 3 of the last 5, Pitt, Dallas, and NYG.

**ptlyon** · 11-22-2017, 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

You just called me a young woman.

Yes, but in my defense it was German. Was meant to be funny, don't really want to see you in a skirt.

ARROW2 · 11-22-2017, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lzen

Which games are you calling great? I would say NE, Philly, and Washington. He has played like garbage 3 of the last 5, Pitt, Dallas, and NYG.

played like shit against Denver too.

**Lzen** · 11-22-2017, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ARROW2

played like shit against Denver too.

I didn't think he played like garbage against Denver. Adequate is what I'd rate that. But that was with my own eyes watching live at the stadium. I don't know what the stats were. Either way, it's obvious that he's regressed to his normal crappy play in November/December. I'm ready to see Mahomes. The only thing is if Andy feels that he's still a little too raw. We're not going anywhere with Alex at the helm, that's for sure.

chiefzilla1501 · 11-22-2017, 08:35 AM

Red Dawg · 11-22-2017, 08:40 AM

Chiefs fan base is sick of two things. One is never being a champion. The second is never having the QB problem solved. Every year of my life it's been an issue with the exception being Green and maybe one year of Joe and that's it. Year after year we are constantly talking about the QB. In many ways it's the only position that matters. Get the right one and you are in the mix every year. The wrong one and you're in purgatory year after year. Mahomes at least is hope.

PAChiefsGuy · 11-22-2017, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Dawg

Chiefs fan base is sick of two things. One is never being a champion. The second is never having the QB problem solved. Every year of my life it's been an issue with the exception being Green and maybe one year of Joe and that's it. Year after year we are constantly talking about the QB. In many ways it's the only position that matters. Get the right one and you are in the mix every year. The wrong one and you're in purgatory year after year. Mahomes at least is hope.

We don't have a QB problem with Alex Smith. He's a good QB.

Truth is Chiefs fanbase is mostly a bunch of whining b**ches. Years of frustration has made a lot of us that way. I get it but it's kind of pathetic at times.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lzen

I didn't think he played like garbage against Denver. Adequate is what I'd rate that. But that was with my own eyes watching live at the stadium. I don't know what the stats were. Either way, it's obvious that he's regressed to his normal crappy play in November/December. I'm ready to see Mahomes. The only thing is if Andy feels that he's still a little too raw. We're not going anywhere with Alex at the helm, that's for sure.

I think that was a good post but that last part is frequently said on here and it drives me nuts because it is simply not true.

First of all we have already gotten to the divisional rd twice with Smitty and won a playoff gm (should have won the Colts playoff gm. Smitty played great) so to say we are not going anywhere with the guy has already been proven false. Not going anywhere is not making the playoffs, making the playoffs is an accomplishment. It's not the ultimate goal and it gets old fast once you get used to it but it always nice to get there.

Second there have been QBs not as good as Alex 'All I do is win' Smith that have won the SB. Most obvious example is the old P Manning that won with the Broncos. Joe Flacco isn't better than Alex. He won it. Russell Wilson isn't much better than Smitty. Big Ben earlier in his career wasn't that great and he certainly isn't having a better season than Alex right now.

So we can win a SB with Smitty, you can win a SB with almost any QB. Football is not an individual sport. So there are ways to win games with pretty much any QB as long as they are good (and that isn't even true look at the old P Manning) which Alex Smith clearly is.

#GoChiefs

OKchiefs · 11-22-2017, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

We don't have a QB problem with Alex Smith. He's a good QB.

Truth is Chiefs fanbase is mostly a bunch of whining b**ches. Years of frustration has made a lot of us that way. I get it but it's kind of pathetic at times.

You clearly know more than David Carr...

PAChiefsGuy · 11-22-2017, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OKchiefs

You clearly know more than David Carr...

No I don't know more than him but Reid does and Reid clearly thinks Smitty should be starting.

I am not saying you guys on here don't have a right to disagree with Reids decision to start Smitty over Mahomes. You do. But lets be honest here and realize that you are probably wrong. Reid was a former QB coach for Christs sakes.

Reid also knows a hell of a lot more about where Mahomes is at as an NFL QB than you guys do. If he should be starting, Reid would do it in a heartbeat. Why wouldn't he?

11-21-2017, 04:16 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Deberg_1990's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx.	David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes" The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year. The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
Posts: 66,914

11-21-2017, 11:24 PM	#61
T-post Tom Threepeat! T-post Tom's Avatar Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Milk/Honey/Gazland	Trying to help his brother out and create dissension on a division rival. Shame on you sir.
Posts: 20,210	1 0

11-22-2017, 08:35 AM	#71
chiefzilla1501 In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 48,056	0 1

11-22-2017, 08:40 AM	#72
Red Dawg Going home eventually Red Dawg's Avatar Join Date: Dec 2002	Chiefs fan base is sick of two things. One is never being a champion. The second is never having the QB problem solved. Every year of my life it's been an issue with the exception being Green and maybe one year of Joe and that's it. Year after year we are constantly talking about the QB. In many ways it's the only position that matters. Get the right one and you are in the mix every year. The wrong one and you're in purgatory year after year. Mahomes at least is hope.
Posts: 30,404	1 0