Early 2021 Mock (3 rounds)

[staylor26]

*Chiefs get a 2021 and 2021 3rd round comp pick for Bieniemy.

1. Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama- After using a 2nd in Gay last year, the Chiefs take Moses in the 1st to pair with him and turn a position that’s been a weakness for far too long into a strength.

2. Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami- The Chiefs need to add another pass rusher with KPass and Okafor set to be going elsewhere in 2021. Phillips is a former #1 overall recruit that battled injuries at UCLA before transferring to Miami.

3. Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma St.- Wallace is a replacement for Watkins that should compliment Hill and Hardman well with his YAC ability. Like Watkins, Wallace might not be as fast as Hill/Hardman, but he is still plenty fast enough and can make big plays especially after the catch.

3. Bubba Bolden, S, Miami- another transfer to Miami, Bolden is a top HS recruit from USC and like Phillips is having a great year for the Hurricanes. I love Dirty Dan, but he’s a liability at times and the Chiefs could use another young athletic safety that gives Spags another chess piece to work with.

I know some are going to say “where’s the IOL?”, but the truth is this isn’t a very good class and unless you are willing to take one in the 1st, chances are you will be reaching for one in rounds 2-3. The Chiefs have 2 4th’s, 2 5th’s, and a 6th to work with. If they have to take 2 to hedge their bets a little, so be it.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by In58men

LDT is for sure coming back?

I think the way the covid opt outs work mean he's under contract for next year. Doesn't guarantee he's coming back though, he could retire?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I dug into that "1/3" stat a bit after Duncan mentioned it.

In 2018 and 2019, Reid used it 28% of the time overall.

In 2020 he's used it 20% of the time overall. He's used it 23% of 1st downs, 21% of 2nd downs, 10% of 3rd downs, and 0% on 4th down - where he tends to go to a 2 RB set instead.

While down does seem to matter, distance to go and quarter of the game don't move much. He is nearly perfectly consistent on distance to the first, and by quarter is 20%, 20%, 24%, and 16% respectively.

So, all that said, he's using a 2 TE set closer to 1/4 to 1/5 of the time and not 1/3 and primarily on 1st and 2nd down, which seem to go against what you'd expect. Either way, I'm not putting a 1st round pick into a player that plays 1/4 of the time. No way. I can't see Veach doing it either.

We’re you looking at 12, 13, and 22 groupings?

I assume you used Sharps, as that’s about the only place that has data on this that’s free.

I don’t know if I mentioned it in the post where I quoted the rate, but I should have.

Those multiple TE sets have consistently accounted for right around 1/3 of the snaps.

That’s where my math came from. Sorry if I didn’t completely show my work. I think I was posting while singing to my kid at bedtime. Ha.

Multitask Dad.

[O.city]

If they had better tight ends they’d use it more

I’m no for using a first on a tight end but if there was a guy there who you think ends up being really good, go for it. Kelce is basically a wr anyway

[Oxford]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I'd be ok with a WR at the end of 1.

When Stevenson drops a 4.3 he's shooting up boards, guaranteed, and he has some pretty good production and film to back up what he'll run. I don't know where he'll end up overall but the 1st isn't out of the question. I just don't have him there yet until I see more consensus opinions than my own. He's a prototypical Reid type. We'll have to see.

There's quite a few receivers in this draft that fit the profile though in the 2nd-4th round range. I wouldn't pound the table for anyone in particular in the 1st just yet but I wouldn't pass on the right guy.

I'm high on Basham in terms of what this team needs opposite Clark but I have a hard time separating him from a guy like Rashad Weaver who you'll probably get in the 3rd or 4th. Unless Basham absolutely surprises in workouts and an all-star game, he could see an Epenesa like drop to the late 2nd. Very similar players.

This draft seems weighted towards rounds 2-4 for the Chiefs needs, so i smell a Veach trade back, how many spots do we trade back to get an extra 3 or 4? That always seems to Veach's happy talent hunting ground

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

We’re you looking at 12, 13, and 22 groupings?

I assume you used Sharps, as that’s about the only place that has data on this that’s free.

I don’t know if I mentioned it in the post where I quoted the rate, but I should have.

Those multiple TE sets have consistently accounted for right around 1/3 of the snaps.

That’s where my math came from. Sorry if I didn’t completely show my work. I think I was posting while singing to my kid at bedtime. Ha.

Multitask Dad.

I probably forgot to include anything but 12 personnel thinking about it now. So, that ups it to 26% this year with down splits of 29, 25, 15, and 0% respectively. Even if I'm looking at that, I can't substantiate a 1st round pick for a player that sees the field less than or equal to 1/3 of the time. Comparatively, a 3rd WR sees the field twice as often (72% in 2020, 61 and 62% in '19 and '18).

I feel you on the multi-task dad bit haha. Been there, doing that. Work, kids, sleep a little, repeat.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Oxford

This draft seems weighted towards rounds 2-4 for the Chiefs needs, so i smell a Veach trade back, how many spots do we trade back to get an extra 3 or 4? That always seems to Veach's happy talent hunting ground

At least 7-8, I think, based on the value charts.

They should get some comp picks, too. Also in that general round. Maybe you package a few to move up into the 3rd/4th.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Oxford

This draft seems weighted towards rounds 2-4 for the Chiefs needs, so i smell a Veach trade back, how many spots do we trade back to get an extra 3 or 4? That always seems to Veach's happy talent hunting ground

We should get a 3rd round comp. Depends on what's there in a trade back. I'm all about adding another TE in this draft that's more competent than what we have now. I just don't think it's as important with a 1st or 2nd rounder as some other positions. Those are players you expect to start early on in their careers and make an impact on improving the roster and filling voids. I think there's bigger fish to fry than a #2 TE. Chiefs need a #2 WR more than a #2 TE. They need a LDE. They need better LBs. With the frequency that they play 3 safeties I'd give some consideration to that position, especially if they don't extend Mathieu. I think you have to look at the O-line. So, definitely not a priority item.

[Tribal Warfare]

Even with CEH I wonder if KC's planning to draft a bruiser RB like Javonte Williams or Najee Harris if they're available in the 1st -3rd rounds

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare

Even with CEH I wonder if KC's planning to draft a bruiser RB like Javonte Williams or Najee Harris if they're available in the 1st -3rd rounds

Another first round running back would literally be terrible.

If Damien is back next year, I don't think a running back is needed at all. If he's not, I'd be all for taking one in the later rounds, probably not even round 3 though.

[Tribal Warfare]

Originally Posted by Chargem

Another first round running back would literally be terrible.

If Damien is back next year, I don't think a running back is needed at all. If he's not, I'd be all for taking one in the later rounds, probably not even round 3 though.

If the value is there go for it, the Chiefs needs are different than most teams BECAUSE MAHOMES

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare

Even with CEH I wonder if KC's planning to draft a bruiser RB like Javonte Williams or Najee Harris if they're available in the 1st -3rd rounds

Najee Harris and CEH would be the best running back room in the NFL, bar none.

I have no doubt that he would solve the Chiefs Red Zone issues.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Chargem

Another first round running back would literally be terrible.

If Damien is back next year, I don't think a running back is needed at all. If he's not, I'd be all for taking one in the later rounds, probably not even round 3 though.

Damien Williams has never been healthy enough to play in 16 games in a season, let alone, 19 or 20. He'll be 29 years old when the season starts and he'll have been out of football for the better part of two years.

The Chiefs need to draft BPA and if that's a guy like Harris, so be it. He would improve their Red Zone efficiency big time.

[OKchiefs]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Damien Williams has never been healthy enough to play in 16 games in a season, let alone, 19 or 20. He'll be 29 years old when the season starts and he'll have been out of football for the better part of two years.

The Chiefs need to draft BPA and if that's a guy like Harris, so be it. He would improve their Red Zone efficiency big time.

Any running back short of Barry Sanders would struggle to find paydirt if they got hit in the backfield constantly. CEH will be fine if the OL is improved.

Also, Williams’ health isn’t as big of an issue as the #2 back getting 5-10 touches a game.

It’s not even an argument worth discussing, KC isn’t taking another RB in the first.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Damien Williams has never been healthy enough to play in 16 games in a season, let alone, 19 or 20. He'll be 29 years old when the season starts and he'll have been out of football for the better part of two years.

The Chiefs need to draft BPA and if that's a guy like Harris, so be it. He would improve their Red Zone efficiency big time.

You only need Williams to play 10-12 snaps a game like Bell is doing now, he has way more chance of staying healthy under that work load.

Two things:

The Chiefs don't have red zone issues, you're falling victim to recency bias when they had 2 games back to back with poor redzone luck. Overall their TD efficiency in the red zone is the same as last year (57% vs 60%)

Drafting two first round running backs when you run the ball 24 times a game is a waste.

[Cosmos]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I legitimately don't understand the draft a TE early crowd. The thought that "what if Kelce got hurt, we have nothing behind him" really has little merit in the process. What if Hill got hurt? Do we have someone that can replace a top 3 receiver in the NFL? Nope. What if Mahomes got hurt? Can we replace the best QB in the NFL? Nope. At least not for any significant time with any of these guys. We don't have even remotely comparable players at any of those positions.

Could Veach draft a TE in the later rounds? I think it's possible, even probable, but to do it in round 3 or higher right now? I highly doubt that's happening.

Now LB and G/C I'd agree are in play. I'd put DE up there, and with Nnadi having an expiring contract soon I'd put DT on the list in the 3rd-4th. Obviously, a #2 WR has to be a thought and you can't rule out a SS if Veach doesn't extend Honey Badger.

There is literally NO pass catching threat behind Kelce...zero.

What’s broke is OL, LB and DE and would rate high picks, with a pass catching TE early/mid rounds from a roster value perspective.