***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Still need these charts and terms explained to me. If BigCatDaddy is unavailable can some other brilliant member help me out? Pete? BleedingRed? Eleazer?

What is "attentodemic"?

[AdolfOliverBush]

"Ethical Skeptic" is neither of those things.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Donger

In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott warned that "tougher actions" may be imposed if the numbers there continue to spike, but he stressed that closing down the state again "will always be the last option."

"Covid-19 is now spreading at an unacceptable rate in Texas, and it must be corralled," Abbott said Monday. Houston’s Health Department said Harris County hospitals have a 177% increase in Covid-19 positive patients since May 31.

Wrong!

Some person on Twitter totally disproved this nonsense. These numbers are the result of salting, juking, and legacy boosting! All you have to do is decipher the tweets and read the charts to see that it's just a bunch of cockmunching.

[stumppy]

A sucker born every minute.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by stumppy

A sucker born every minute.

Well it comes as no surprise who posted those graphs.

[Donger]

It is visually very pretty. Got a formula and stuff.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Donger

What is "attentodemic"?

Well everyone should know this "word". But for the stupid's ill give you the definition. Don't get hung up on the fact that this definition doesnt come from a dictionary, but Ethical Skeptics very own glossary.

Attentodemic – a pandemic which arises statistically for the most part from an increase in testing and case-detection activity. From the two Latin roots attento (test, tamper with, scrutinize) and dem (the people). A pandemic, whose curve arises solely from increases in statistical examination and testing, posting of latent cases or detected immunity as ‘current new cases’, as opposed to true increases in fact

https://theethicalskeptic.com/glossary/glossary-a-b/

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Well it comes as no surprise who posted those graphs.

Yea, we can expect a new "I got em this time" post from at least one of those rubes every day or two.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Well everyone should know this "word". But for the stupid's ill give you the definition. Don't get hung up on the fact that this definition doesnt come from a dictionary, but Ethical Skeptics very own glossary.

Attentodemic – a pandemic which arises statistically for the most part from an increase in testing and case-detection activity. From the two Latin roots attento (test, tamper with, scrutinize) and dem (the people). A pandemic, whose curve arises solely from increases in statistical examination and testing, posting of latent cases or detected immunity as ‘current new cases’, as opposed to true increases in fact

https://theethicalskeptic.com/glossary/glossary-a-b/

Attentodemic – a pandemic which arises statistically for the most part from an increase in testing and case-detection activity. From the two Latin roots attento (test, tamper with, scrutinize) and dem (the people). A pandemic, whose curve arises solely from increases in statistical examination and testing, posting of latent cases or detected immunity as ‘current new cases’, as opposed to true increases in fact.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by stumppy

Yea, we can expect a new "I got em this time" post from at least one of those rubes every day or two.

BigCatDaddy has arrived...

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by stumppy

Yea, we can expect a new "I got em this time" post from at least one of those rubes every day or two.

Don't worry, when they do we can expect you will be there to summarily dismiss it out of hand or otherwise move the goal posts because it doesn't fit your narrative.

Mecca will make a political post and pretend he didn't know it was political

Hamas will break it down to some scientific minutia

etc., etc....

And so the world turns

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

2 guys with nothing burgers. Anyone else?

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

When I first saw this I'll admit to some confusion. I'm not a data scientist by training, so I wasn't going to assume understanding of this person's jargon, but the further you dive into it, the more you realize that it's a parlor game. Many of his pet phrases that he uses are simply not words, and the conclusions he draws from the graphs do not correlate with the sources he claims to reference.

A good example is the overlay of the CDC estimate data in blue to draw firm conclusions about serology when no study has indicated levels of infection that high, and the CDC estimate that he uses was one of many potential outcomes based on inputs that were purposefully estimates and not hard data to show a range of possibilities. What he does is take it for a fact and then extrapolates IFR from it while criticizing states of "salting" (which is a term taken from mining fraud) data.

It's a good case study in the persuasiveness of graphical design among the intellectually incurious, though.

Heh... that's certainly a problem when trying to prove someone wrong. And of course there's the old thing with "the earth is flat, prove me wrong"... or "we've never been in space, prove me wrong".

Anyone on the internet can make pretty graphs that don't really say anything, but it's not up to me or anyone else to prove them wrong.

[O.city]

"A new study from Penn State estimates that the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed." H/T @coolhandhutchhttps://t.co/zjjVk1ecUC

— Todd Lowdon (@tlowdon) June 23, 2020

[eDave]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Wrong!

Some person on Twitter totally disproved this nonsense. These numbers are the result of salting, juking, and legacy boosting! All you have to do is decipher the tweets and read the charts to see that it's just a bunch of cockmunching.

I would LOVE for our Gov to make a threat similar to this. But towards the businesses that are allowing people to break the law while in their establishment. Start by reminding them that if they continue to allow the violations, another much longer shutdown is next. And that's bad for business, as surely they already know. I don't think it would be hard to monitor places known to draw larger crowds on a consistent basis. Casino's for instance. Entertainment hub areas. Things like that.

At the casino where hardly anyone had one on, security was real good at telling me where I couldn't stand, or tell me I couldn't smoke in there anymore and to go outside. And what the hell does banning smoking do Covid-wise? But nothing done about the bigger threat to everyone in there that has a law supporting it's enforcement. I think they think if they just supply the masks, they can say they are doing their part to enforce the ordinance.

Circle K guy sure didn't have a problem denying me when I went in without a mask. Now they don't care even though they have signs on the front doors saying it's required to enter. They give a lot more ****s about customers with backpacks or a hoodie.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

When I first saw this I'll admit to some confusion. I'm not a data scientist by training, so I wasn't going to assume understanding of this person's jargon, but the further you dive into it, the more you realize that it's a parlor game. Many of his pet phrases that he uses are simply not words, and the conclusions he draws from the graphs do not correlate with the sources he claims to reference.

A good example is the overlay of the CDC estimate data in blue to draw firm conclusions about serology when no study has indicated levels of infection that high, and the CDC estimate that he uses was one of many potential outcomes based on inputs that were purposefully estimates and not hard data to show a range of possibilities. What he does is take it for a fact and then extrapolates IFR from it while criticizing states of "salting" (which is a term taken from mining fraud) data.

It's a good case study in the persuasiveness of graphical design among the intellectually incurious, though.

I went down the rabbit hole. I saw Attentodemic Testing Escalation and thought to myself "wtf is that?" and did a google search. That lead me to ES website and I instantly knew they were full of shit.

People like to pretend they know what is going on and they have a hard time admitting they don't understand something. ES knows that people are stupid and will spread his bullshit, because it looks good, sounds smart, and doesn't make a bit of sense.