***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Giving people labels just because they have a different opinion or handle situations different than you are in the hope they change their mind and agree with you isn’t very productive. Just need to spend a few minutes in DC to figure that out.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by FAX

I view that as a good thing (under the circumstances).

You can't properly fight what you can't understand.

There are a number of serious virologists who have said that people have probably been walking around with this without their knowledge for weeks - possibly months. Including, by the way, right here in the US.

And those experts have actually been saying that since late February.

FAX

Could be. When it comes to the data here there's not much we can do but wait and see.

[FAX]

Originally Posted by TLO

Mr. Fax,

I'd typically love to dive into this information but my brain is overloaded and I'm tired.

Can you give a brief rundown of the article?

Basically, they've developed sophisticated computer models that allow them to estimate the extent and spread of the contagion in China both prior to and after the "outbreak". Based on that research, they believe that vastly more people contract the virus than was previously known.

And the vast majority of those are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

In other words (my words and interpretation), in Wuhan, probably 10 million people had the virus and didn't know it.

Essentially, the Chinese didn't know what they were dealing with until the number of cases involving health-compromised patients went critical.

Then there are a bunch of algorithms and charts and stuff that basically describe how ****ed up the Chinese handled this from the get-go.

Oh ... and they said this: [Control] measures along with changes in medical care-seeking behavior due to increased awareness of the virus and increased personal protective behavior (e.g., wearing of facemasks, social distancing, self-isolation when sick), likely altered the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak after 23 January. (In other words, things improved after that.)

Take care of yourself, Mr. TLO. All will be well.

FAX

[Stanley Nickels]

Originally Posted by TLO

Mr. Fax,

I'd typically love to dive into this information but my brain is overloaded and I'm tired.

Can you give a brief rundown of the article?

Mathematical (Bayesian) model estimates that 86% of ALL Covid cases were unreported/undiagnosed prior to a travel ban/quarantine instituted in Wuhan late January. The model anticipates that the asymptomatic people were "less contagious" but still likely account for 70+% of all transmitted cases after that ban. That's from a cursory read-through. Important to note that this is a *probability* from a mathematical model, not actual data... But it's pretty strong given a tight confidence interval range.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by FAX

I view that as a good thing (under the circumstances).

You can't properly fight what you can't understand.

There are a number of serious virologists who have said that people have probably been walking around with this without their knowledge for weeks - possibly months. Including, by the way, right here in the US.

And those experts have actually been saying that since late February.

FAX

It's still the case. That's literally what people in the know are still complaining about. We haven't been testing at a high level at all and we still aren't. They will never contain it unless the government gets serious about it.

West Virginia was the final state to finally have a case, announced today. They've done like 140 tests. Total. We're finally starting to ramp up testing in this country but it's already too late. That's the problem. You're going to have a whole bunch of mild and asymptomatic people out there spreading this around like wildfire.

[TLO]

Deaths in Italy

I can't embed on my phone.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Covid19No...09907879006209

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by stumppy

Could be. When it comes to the data here there's not much we can do but wait and see.

Your best post ever.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Why do you insist on calling it hysteria/panic instead of concern , why does everything have to be at the extreme of the spectrum.

When the entire economy is destroyed to supposedly combat a virus that will only infect a small % of Americans, and will only seriously sicken or kill an even smaller %, that is the ultimate definition of “extreme”.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Giving people labels just because they have a different opinion or handle situations different than you are in the hope they change their mind and agree with you isn’t very productive. Just need to spend a few minutes in DC to figure that out.

It's the way of ChiefsPlanet. Always has been, always will.

That said, I'd like to see this thread maintain a higher level of civility than the norm. There is a lot of good, important information in this thread and I'd rather not see it get lost in the bickering.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by FAX

Basically, they've developed sophisticated computer models that allow them to estimate the extent and spread of the contagion in China both prior to and after the "outbreak". Based on that research, they believe that vastly more people contract the virus than was previously known.

And the vast majority of those are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

In other words (my words and interpretation), in Wuhan, probably 10 million people had the virus and didn't know it.

Essentially, the Chinese didn't know what they were dealing with until the number of cases involving health-compromised patients went critical.

Then there are a bunch of algorithms and charts and stuff that basically describe how ****ed up the Chinese handled this from the get-go.

Oh ... and they said this: [Control] measures along with changes in medical care-seeking behavior due to increased awareness of the virus and increased personal protective behavior (e.g., wearing of facemasks, social distancing, self-isolation when sick), likely altered the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak after 23 January. (In other words, things improved after that.)

Take care of yourself, Mr. TLO. All will be well.

FAX

Originally Posted by Stanley Nickels

Mathematical (Bayesian) model estimates that 86% of ALL Covid cases were unreported/undiagnosed prior to a travel ban/quarantine instituted in Wuhan late January. The model anticipates that the asymptomatic people were "less contagious" but still likely account for 70+% of all transmitted cases after that ban. That's from a cursory read-through. Important to note that this is a *probability* from a mathematical model, not actual data... But it's pretty strong given a tight confidence interval range.

Thank you both.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by FAX

I view that as a good thing (under the circumstances).

You can't properly fight what you can't understand.

There are a number of serious virologists who have said that people have probably been walking around with this without their knowledge for weeks - possibly months. Including, by the way, right here in the US.

And those experts have actually been saying that since late February.

FAX

I have been looking for these articles. To clarify, are you talking about
community spread prior to January 20th in the USA?

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by TLO

You absolutely have. I'm glad you're hear sharing information with us.

He is not helping your health. MOF he is probably making it worse. Just saying.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

It's the way of ChiefsPlanet. Always has been, always will.

That said, I'd like to see this thread maintain a higher level of civility than the norm. There is a lot of good, important information in this thread and I'd rather not see it get lost in the bickering.

Will do.

[Stanley Nickels]

Originally Posted by FAX

In other words (my words and interpretation), in Wuhan, probably 10 million people had the virus and didn't know it.

Incredibly wrong and irresponsible.

Edit: For clarification, from the article: "Using the best-fitting model (Table 1 and Fig. 1), we estimated 13,118 (95% CI: 2,974–23,435) total new COVID-19 infections (documented and undocumented combined) during 10–23 January in Wuhan city. Further, 86.2% (95% CI: 81.5%–89.8%) of all infections were infected from undocumented cases. Nationwide, the total number of infections during 10–23 January was 16,829 (95% CI: 3,797–30,271) with 86.2% (95% CI: 81.6%–89.8%) infected by undocumented cases."

Those numbers form the basis for this Bayesian simulation. Nothing even close to 100,000, let alone ten million. We may ultimately find out that there is some incredibly high R0 for this virus and it just lies dormant in (literally) 99.9% of all who contract it (no data support this), but that is NOT what the cited article suggests.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

Your best post ever.

Just call me Capt. Obvious.