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Deberg_1990 · 11-21-2017, 04:16 PM

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.

The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

Marcellus · 01-01-2018, 04:15 PM

There are 17 million reasons, on top of a young kid with an accurate cannon arm waiting, that Smith will be gone next season.

Any sane Chiefs fan will lose their shit if Smith is back and KC didnt at least make it to the SB.

Hammock Parties · 01-01-2018, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

There are 17 million reasons on top of a young kid with an accurate cannon arm waiting, that Smith will be gone next season.

Any sane Chiefs fan will lose their shit if Smith is back and KC didnt at least make it to the SB.

Jake Plummer made it further than Smith ever has.

Shanny knew.

Reid knows.

Best22 · 01-01-2018, 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

Keep in mind that the defense put points on the board as well.

It was 17-10 when we scored on a fumble. Then Denver scored on the Bray fumble. Those canceled each other out. The big difference was the three and out drive where Bray missed an open Wilson with a pathetic pass in the dirt. Lynch led Denver to tie the game on the next drive, proving Bray to be the worst QB in the stadium

Mahomes led the offense to 20 points
Lynch led his offense to 17

pugsnotdrugs19 · 01-01-2018, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pueblo Chieftan

You just have a hard time accepting that a QB has a tipping point, beyond which success feeds on success, but short of which, cascading errors spell doom. When things go bad for QBs, they look WORSE than they are. When things are going good, they look BETTER than they are.

Alex is only one part of the problem that ails the Chiefs offense in its entirety. And then there is the defense with its issues as well.

Wait, you mean Mahomes is gonna have a bad game sometimes? Like he's not going to be perfect every week??

Shit. Trade him then.

stevieray · 01-01-2018, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Best22

He had Demaryius Thomas and CJ all game

That's the equivalent of Kelce and Hunt starting for us

Not to mention they had Von Miller and other starters on defense

So, yes, Harris and Wilson are starters.

RunKC · 01-01-2018, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

There are 17 million reasons, on top of a young kid with an accurate cannon arm waiting, that Smith will be gone next season.

Any sane Chiefs fan will lose their shit if Smith is back and KC didnt at least make it to the SB.

Yup. We’re playing with house money at this point.

Either Alex pulls a Joe Flacco and takes us to the SB or we move forward with Pat.

There is no downside to this in any way.

Marcellus · 01-01-2018, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Best22

It was 17-10 when we scored on a fumble. Then Denver scored on the Bray fumble. Those canceled each other out. The big difference was the three and out drive where Bray missed an open Wilson with a pathetic pass in the dirt. Lynch led Denver to tie the game on the next drive, proving Bray to be the worst QB in the stadium

Mahomes led the offense to 20 points
Lynch led his offense to 17

Lynch actually played better than I was expecting. He may have some potential.Looked better than any Donkey QB did earlier this season.

Best22 · 01-01-2018, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevieray

So, yes, Harris and Wilson are starters.

Wilson and Harris are role players, "6th man" types. They aren't Demaryius Thomas or CJ Anderson level starters and you know this.

Denver had more starters, period

Pueblo Chieftan · 01-01-2018, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Best22

He had Demaryius Thomas and CJ all game

That's the equivalent of Kelce and Hunt starting for us

Not to mention they had Von Miller and other starters on defense

What? Demarius Thomas is softer than cotton candy. Disappears in games, too. A non-factor. And CJ runs like a fat kid. He is decent, yes, but he will never break a tackle and take it all the way to the endzone. Nope. Not happening. And Von is on the decline.

Enough with the excuses

Marcellus · 01-01-2018, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Yup. We’re playing with house money at this point.

Either Alex pulls a Joe Flacco and takes us to the SB or we move forward with Pat.

There is no downside to this in any way.

This is why I am happy as hell this playoff season. Cant really lose as a fan of the Chiefs.

No idea why people dont understand this.

dlphg9 · 01-01-2018, 04:20 PM

Pueblo and Stevie are god damn idiots. I mean real idiots. The type of people who have to have people wipe their asses for them. They also probably have those same people type out their posts.

stevieray · 01-01-2018, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Best22

It was 17-10 when we scored on a fumble. Then Denver scored on the Bray fumble. Those canceled each other out. The big difference was the three and out drive where Bray missed an open Wilson with a pathetic pass in the dirt. Lynch led Denver to tie the game on the next drive, proving Bray to be the worst QB in the stadium

Mahomes led the offense to 20 points
Lynch led his offense to 17

and six of the points were FG's

but that's okay if it isn't Smith, right?

staylor26 · 01-01-2018, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Lynch actually played better than I was expecting. He may have some potential.Looked better than any Donkey QB did earlier this season.

He had 3 turnovers playing with mostly starters against second and third teamers.

Lynch is awful.

Marcellus · 01-01-2018, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26

He had 3 turnovers playing with mostly starters against second and third teamers.

Lynch is awful.

He showed some flashes, a couple throws he made were pretty damn impressive.

stevieray · 01-01-2018, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Best22

Denver had more starters, period

5-10

11-21-2017, 04:16 PM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Deberg_1990's Avatar Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx.	David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes" The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year. The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday. I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback. Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1). Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season. September: 92.0 October: 111.1 November: 63.5 Dec.-Jan.: 68.8 The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses. I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses. It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs
Posts: 66,914

01-01-2018, 04:15 PM	#481
Marcellus Diablo Negro Marcellus's Avatar Join Date: Sep 2003	There are 17 million reasons, on top of a young kid with an accurate cannon arm waiting, that Smith will be gone next season. Any sane Chiefs fan will lose their shit if Smith is back and KC didnt at least make it to the SB.
Posts: 69,416

01-01-2018, 04:20 PM	#491
dlphg9 MVP dlphg9's Avatar Join Date: Oct 2010	Pueblo and Stevie are god damn idiots. I mean real idiots. The type of people who have to have people wipe their asses for them. They also probably have those same people type out their posts.
Posts: 16,968