Mathieu’s Future

[Direckshun]

I just about started this topic in the Lounge, but I think we can all see the “why can’t you just enjoy this season!?!” belligerence coming from a mile away.

But since this is a forward- and longterm- looking forum, let’s talk turkey about Tyrann Matthieu.

Matthieu is an elite leader who won the team MVP in the Super Bowl season, could very well have won the league’s DPOY that year, and has been Pro Bowl caliber every year he’s been here, presuming he continues his play from his really good training camp. He can play deep, he can play in the box, he is elite in the slot, a true Swiss Army knife that allows the defense badly needed flexibility. He’s also a big part of the reason the Chiefs largely go cheap everywhere else in the secondary: his field general abilities raise the level of play of his teammates.

He’s incredibly important to re-sign, and virtually all of you know this is the last year of his contract.

But I’m getting tinges of feelings the Chiefs may let him walk after this year, and I know I’m not the only on because when I mentioned it in the training camp thread, a couple others said they felt that way too.

Given his importance and talent, it should be unthinkable to let him go.

And yet.

In this interview (I’m on my phone: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...al-money-tight), Veach himself appears to be softening the ground for a Matthieu departure this coming offseason. While he is still committed to the guy, it’s clear that contract negotiations have royally pissed Matthieu off and the Chiefs just aren’t able at this moment to make the money work. (Of course, now that I’ve posted this, watch the Chiefs extend him tomorrow. You’re all welcome.)

Also, it bears repeating that this contract would be paying Matthieu well into his 30s, he’s likely asking for top money in the neighborhood of $17m/year give or take, and if Matthieu is exploding on Twitter about this stuff, lord knows what he’s saying in private, and the brass may not be thrilled with Badger barking for a full season to the rest of the team (and friends of his on other teams) about how the Chiefs don’t give a shit about what players have done for them. And Veach is a Mahomes-first GM, and Matthieu doesn’t play a position that directly helps Mahomes.

Veach says the team is already $30m over the cap for next year, assuming they franchise Brown, though he says they could extend Brown but they’d still be well over. He openly mentioned players moving on to open up cap space, and I think we all know Frank Clark is all but heading that way.

So in the coming offseason, the Chiefs will very likely be in a tight cap squeeze, Orlando Brown and (most critically) Tyreek Hill will be up for a contract. Cutting Frank Clark means the team may also need to make a splash at the DE position. That’s true of Matthieu too, though — there is no answer that we currently have on the roster if he walks. All told, the Chiefs are going to be in very tough spaces cap wise, as they have the fewest players under contract for next season, alongside another team or two.

What do you envision happens with Matthieu in the coming offseason?

[D.A.P.]

I like the Chiefs of Kansas City as my favorite National Football League team.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by D.A.P.

I like the Chiefs of Kansas City as my favorite National Football League team.

Clearly a Russian bot.

[Coogs]

I'm going to probably get flamed for this, but here it goes anyway.

If Hughes and Baker continue to have good outings, we could be pretty stacked at the corner position. Ward, Sneed, Hughes, Baker, and Fenton. If it should come to the point where the money does not work for Mathieu, would it be possible to slide Sneed into that role? He played some safety in college, and seems to be a jack of all trades type of player.

Just a thought.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Coogs

I'm going to probably get flamed for this, but here it goes anyway.

If Hughes and Baker continue to have good outings, we could be pretty stacked at the corner position. Ward, Sneed, Hughes, Baker, and Fenton. If it should come to the point where the money does not work for Mathieu, would it be possible to slide Sneed into that role? He played some safety in college, and seems to be a jack of all trades type of player.

Just a thought.

One of the best talents Matthieu provides is his coverage in the slot… which is exactly where Sneed is excelling these days. So we have that going for us.

Losing Matthieu however means you’ve lost your elite leadership in the secondary that raises everybody’s game. It’s not yet clear we have another guy on the roster who can fill that role. There are a mere handful of defenders in the NFL who can.

The math makes sense when it comes to letting Matthieu walk, but you are definitely losing something special if he does.

[RINGLEADER]

Veach clearly has a number he thinks is fair and will not put the Chiefs in a position of not having the ability to tag whoever they want - if necessary - down the road. Obviously the two big names we have to get sewn up are Brown and Hill.

As noted on another thread there is nothing saying we can't try again next season with the possibility that HB's price tag could go up or down based on what happens this season. That's the risk of both sides walking away from whatever deal Veach has proposed. But if Tyrann's price tag doesn't come down, regardless of when that deadline comes, he doesn't seem to be on the Chiefs.

[kccrow]

One of the things you have to do to maintain status as a great team is to know when it is time to cut bait with expensive players and when not to.

The Chiefs roll into 2022 with roughly 20m in space, which will at least half be eaten up by signing Orland Brown. That in mind, Hill is already under contract, so it seems an extension should have the goal of bringing down his near 21m hit (15m of which is a roster bonus that could and probably should be rolled into a signing bonus). The Chiefs can also free up 21m in space by cutting or trading Hitchens and Clark. At minimum, I'd think Clark is a goner but the Chiefs have set things up to let Hitchens go with the addition of Bolton this year. The Chiefs can also free up nearly $22m by rolling Mahomes' roster bonus into a signing bonus again, which they'll likely have to do with all of the roster needs.

As for the roster, here's kind of a breakdown of what's on the table, obviously pending cut-downs...

Starters
ER Alex Okafor (probably gone)
DT Derrick Nnadi (must re-sign IMO)
DT Jarran Reed (depends on how his role shakes out)
CB Charvarius Ward (guessing we lose to FA)
SS Daniel Sorensen (probably time to look towards the future here)
SS Tyrann Mathieu
FB Michael Burton (he's a FB so near vet mins)
LT Orlando Brown (will re-sign, likely at $23m per)
RT Mike Remmers (probably gone as Niang takes the throne)
LS James Winchester (likely re-sign at a bit over 1m per)

Key Depth
LB Ben Niemann (I'd like to think he's gone, although he was retained this year...)
CB Mike Hughes (who knows?)
QB Chad Henne (probably gone)
RB Darrel Williams (nice role player for vet min, but we'll see)
WR Demarcus Robinson (probably gone)
WR Byron Pringle (probably gone)
OC Austin Blythe (we'll see but I'd have to think he isn't re-signing here to be depth)
RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (probably gone)
LG Andrew Wylie (Reid likes the guy for some reason, so who knows for sure)

Just Guys
ER Taco Charlton (Would need decent, healthy year IMO)
ER Demone Harris (Probably gone)
LB Dorian O'Daniel (Probably gone, never graduated past STs)
FS Will Parks (Probably gone)
SS Armani Watts (would need decent, healthy year IMO but probably gone)
RB Jerick McKinnon (have to see what his role and health are)
WR Chad Williams (may not make it out of camp, likely gone)
WR Marcus Kemp (may not make it out of camp, likely gone)
WR Daurice Fountain (see what shakes from camp, might be a guy to re-sign)
TE Blake Bell (probably gone)
RG Kyle Long (probably gone)
LG Bryan Witzmann (probably gone)

RFA (Projected 2022 RoFR = $2.396m) - Doubt they re-sign either
WR Gehrig Dieter
RB Elijah McGuire

ERFA (Vet mins 0 = 705, 1 = 825, 2 = 895, 3 = 965) - Approx. $14.5m to re-sign all, depends on accrued seasons going into next year, and who's retained on PS/Roster. I'd think if they play ER, LB, DB, or WR, then they'll be around + Forston.
ER Tim Ward
ER Austin Edwards
DT Tyler Clark
LB Darius Harris
LB Omari Cobb
LB Emmanuel Smith
CB Deandre Baker (2)
CB Chris Lammons
SS Rodney Clemons
QB Anthony Gordon
RB Derrick Gore
WR Darrius Shepherd (2)
WR Maurice Ffrench
WR Dalton Schoen
TE Jody Fortson
TE Evan Baylis (2)
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
OT Wyatt Miller
OC Darryl Williams

While the Chiefs might be able to posture themselves into having roughly $50m in cap space after re-signing Brown, I really don't see the financial room to retain a guy like Mathieu at the rate he wants with all of the roster spots open and other guys that need to be retained. There aren't many I see as "must resign" right now aside from Nnadi (Brown already accounted for) but there are going to be a lot of holes to fill (roughly half the team). The Chiefs have 36 players under contract for 2022 and at least 7 are unlikely to make the roster, which doesn't allocate much more than $2m per player. There isn't a lot of room for splash signings even with a lot of guys being vet min types. You're going to be able to get a few mid-level types to patch the major holes. As much as I like him, it's probably time to enjoy HB while he's here knowing he's not coming back.

[RealSNR]

I think it's the combination of money plus years. Mathieu probably wants 3+ years, and I doubt the team wants that commitment or the pricetag.

Veach pulls rabbits out of hats, though. I'll understand if Mathieu has to walk, but I'm anticipating that Veach is preparing for this possibility.

[Buehler445]

I'd really like to keep him in red, but frankly, he's probably earned more than we can pay on his next contract. He's been REALLY ****ing good for us.

If I'm Veach (I'm not - he probably has a better plan than this) I make the case to him that I can't pay him the money he wants (and probably deserves, but let's shut our fat faces about that point) because we're winning Super Bowls.

But we can pay X with Y structure and guarantees (Whatever his wizard mind has calculated as his number).

Now with, XY, we're going to win Bowls. **** the rest of the ****ing league. We're ****ing doing this ****ing shit.

Now I would make it very clear that dynasty type teams get a lot of dudes in the HOF. I don't know if a dude that bounces around the league his whole career and 2 out of the 3 teams he played for so far didn't want to retain him gets it done, especially if he goes to a shithole for 5 years. That's 10 years after the high profile time. Plus if you're a legit star on a high profile team, you can pretty much do what you want after football. At least get a shot it at it. Plus, his turnaround story, his motivational capacity, dudes will be falling all over themselves to offer favorable publicity. Public Speaking fees, book deal, whatever.

Go chase you're money and you probably go to Detroit with a Cheatriot ****bag failure in the making let by Goff, who a competitive team traded for ****all and probably wallow in obscurity for the rest of your career, certainly at least for the rest of the contract.

OR

Stay for XY, win Bowls, get the Gold Jacket, leverage it into opportunities after football.

And hope that works.

(Hopefully Veach has a better plan LOL)

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I'd really like to keep him in red, but frankly, he's probably earned more than we can pay on his next contract. He's been REALLY ****ing good for us.

If I'm Veach (I'm not - he probably has a better plan than this) I make the case to him that I can't pay him the money he wants (and probably deserves, but let's shut our fat faces about that point) because we're winning Super Bowls.

But we can pay X with Y structure and guarantees (Whatever his wizard mind has calculated as his number).

Now with, XY, we're going to win Bowls. **** the rest of the ****ing league. We're ****ing doing this ****ing shit.

Now I would make it very clear that dynasty type teams get a lot of dudes in the HOF. I don't know if a dude that bounces around the league his whole career and 2 out of the 3 teams he played for so far didn't want to retain him gets it done, especially if he goes to a shithole for 5 years. That's 10 years after the high profile time. Plus if you're a legit star on a high profile team, you can pretty much do what you want after football. At least get a shot it at it. Plus, his turnaround story, his motivational capacity, dudes will be falling all over themselves to offer favorable publicity. Public Speaking fees, book deal, whatever.

Go chase you're money and you probably go to Detroit with a Cheatriot ****bag failure in the making let by Goff, who a competitive team traded for ****all and probably wallow in obscurity for the rest of your career, certainly at least for the rest of the contract.

OR

Stay for XY, win Bowls, get the Gold Jacket, leverage it into opportunities after football.

And hope that works.

(Hopefully Veach has a better plan LOL)

Right.

Mathieu has been great for the Chiefs and we've been great for the Mathieu, but if the #1 thing on his mind when it comes to his NFL future is outdoing the Jamal Adams deal, then I guess it's hard for me to give a shit what happens to him after he leaves the Chiefs.

In fact, I'd think it would be pretty hilarious if he goes off in search of the BIG payday and then has to ****ing eat shit biting off kneecaps in Detroit while the winning and competent team-focused football keeps on flowing here.

Like, his buddies Kelce and Jones and Tyreek are all still here enjoying what makes this team great, and Mathieu is sitting there pissed off as **** while his douchenozzle head coach is making fart and poop jokes in team meetings. All he can do is come home to that extra $5 million per year or whatever it is he'd be making over there.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Right.

Mathieu has been great for the Chiefs and we've been great for the Mathieu, but if the #1 thing on his mind when it comes to his NFL future is outdoing the Jamal Adams deal, then I guess it's hard for me to give a shit what happens to him after he leaves the Chiefs.

In fact, I'd think it would be pretty hilarious if he goes off in search of the BIG payday and then has to ****ing eat shit biting off kneecaps in Detroit while the winning and competent team-focused football keeps on flowing here.

Like, his buddies Kelce and Jones and Tyreek are all still here enjoying what makes this team great, and Mathieu is sitting there pissed off as **** while his douchenozzle head coach is making fart and poop jokes in team meetings. All he can do is come home to that extra $5 million per year or whatever it is he'd be making over there.

This will not be popular but I think we’d all listen to fart jokes from a dead man walking coach on a ridiculous franchise for an additional $5m/year.

I don’t think you or Beuhler’s logic is wrong; I completely agree. I just don’t think that sales pitch works for him or the vast majority of players. They want to play hard and earn their bag, and I don’t fault them for that.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

This will not be popular but I think we’d all listen to fart jokes from a dead man walking coach on a ridiculous franchise for an additional $5m/year.

I don’t think you or Beuhler’s logic is wrong; I completely agree. I just don’t think that sales pitch works for him or the vast majority of players. They want to play hard and earn their bag, and I don’t fault them for that.

There is obviously a gradient.

Very few players are solely interested in maximizing revenue. Because, like most accountants that go into Big 4 public figure out, that’s a miserable ****ing existence.

Now, I’ve never had anywhere near that much money on the table anywhere, so it is difficult for me to adopt the perspective. Similarly, I’ve never had such varied options on the table. I guess since I got out of college maybe but there was far less known in my decision making process.

The reality is that it’s difficult for most people to even speculate what that decision making process is like, because few are similar. But again, few players are solely interested in maximizing revenue.

[Megatron96]

My gut feeling (not based on any evidence) is that Tyrann will be re-signed. i just believe that Veach will find some way to flog the books to get what Mathieu needs to be happy. Which is probably the smart play anyway. We need HB QBing the secondary ore than we need a few million bucks.

[tredadda]

Honestly I think Mathieu might be looking at more than just money. He will be 30 this year and is probably looking to get more than a three year deal. I imagine Veach could get him for cheaper if he was willing to give him a longer contract (with a higher percentage guaranteed). A 4-5 year contract for Mathieu would take him to his mid 30s where he can either be a backup after or retire. A three year deal puts him in limbo some as he will still be young enough to play, but too old for anyone to spend big on. I do believe that he is smart enough to know that KC can't pay him Adams money (nor should they) which is why I don't believe it's about the money per year. I just don't believe he would say he wants to spend his career here and not play for anyone else while expecting to get Top 3 safety money, unless he was just saying that for no reason.