Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[chiefforlife]

Anyone have an update on NKLA?

Wondering if it will come back after the CEO stepped down or is that the end for them...

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by TinyEvel

A personal thank you to whoever brought Plug Power to this thread. I bought some at $11.00 a couple months ago, it’s at $21 now

Yep, I've gone heavy over the past few months into EV and EV charging. It's going to be huge over the next 5 years especially with dementia in the white house. He going to throw a bunch of government money that direction.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Yep, I've gone heavy over the past few months into EV and EV charging. It's going to be huge over the next 5 years especially with dementia in the white house. He going to throw a bunch of government money that direction.

Definitely time to look at different sector plays with dementia in office vs the past 4 years of cognitive dissonance in office.

Their is plenty of risk in two main areas that many are looking at, EV and pot. Both have too many companies vying for the same technology and space. Many of these smaller companies get bought out. That sounds great if you own the company doing the buying but that's not always the case. The debt laid out in acquiring these companies, especially in pot, comes with needing years of a successful business model to draw down that debt and turn a profitable business. I've owned CGC for years and they're a major player but with major troubles turning successful profit and paying down debt. You'd think legalizing weed would make their business boom but that's not always the case.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Definitely time to look at different sector plays with dementia in office vs the past 4 years of cognitive dissonance in office.

Their is plenty of risk in two main areas that many are looking at, EV and pot. Both have too many companies vying for the same technology and space. Many of these smaller companies get bought out. That sounds great if you own the company doing the buying but that's not always the case. The debt laid out in acquiring these companies, especially in pot, comes with needing years of a successful business model to draw down that debt and turn a profitable business. I've owned CGC for years and they're a major player but with major troubles turning successful profit and paying down debt. You'd think legalizing weed would make their business boom but that's not always the case.

Most people don't understand what happens when a niche product becomes an actual commodity. There is always a boom worth quickly mining, but then it's followed by a substantial shift to commodity margins as something like weed moves from medicinal to legal.

Just be glad actual farmers aren't growing the shit. It, and everything attached to it, would already be near break even margins and it'd become a near worthless investment overnight.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Definitely time to look at different sector plays with dementia in office vs the past 4 years of cognitive dissonance in office.

Their is plenty of risk in two main areas that many are looking at, EV and pot. Both have too many companies vying for the same technology and space. Many of these smaller companies get bought out. That sounds great if you own the company doing the buying but that's not always the case. The debt laid out in acquiring these companies, especially in pot, comes with needing years of a successful business model to draw down that debt and turn a profitable business. I've owned CGC for years and they're a major player but with major troubles turning successful profit and paying down debt. You'd think legalizing weed would make their business boom but that's not always the case.

Yeah, it's tough to achieve economies of scale (with positive marginal profits) with a manufacturing process that is reliant on hand labor. Sure you can make incremental gains through seed supply, logistics, packaging, access to customers and best practices, but the rest of the ag industry did it through mechanization, and that doesn't appear to be in the cards for pot. Size doesn't necessarily equal improved margins without substantive production efficiencies.

Originally Posted by ghak99

Most people don't understand what happens when a niche product becomes an actual commodity. There is always a boom worth quickly mining, but then it's followed by a substantial shift to commodity margins as something like weed moves from medicinal to legal.

Just be glad actual farmers aren't growing the shit. It, and everything attached to it, would already be near break even margins and it'd become a near worthless investment overnight.

Yeah, some guys are trying to get CBD operations up and going, but even at the miniscule acres that were applied, dudes are having trouble with huge wait times for payment, meaning they flooded the market.

I am wholly uninterested in anything manual labor. I can't find anybody to even do some basic labor and tractoring. Much less walk fields and do manual labor. Much less put together a crew to do anything at scale.

Especially in my part of the world, achieving a consistent product would be paramount. With the ridiculously harsh conditions we can encounter, it's going to have to work a lot of years before I'd put any real assets towards it.

[TinyEvel]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Definitely time to look at different sector plays with dementia in office vs the past 4 years of cognitive dissonance in office.

Their is plenty of risk in two main areas that many are looking at, EV and pot. Both have too many companies vying for the same technology and space. Many of these smaller companies get bought out. That sounds great if you own the company doing the buying but that's not always the case. The debt laid out in acquiring these companies, especially in pot, comes with needing years of a successful business model to draw down that debt and turn a profitable business. I've owned CGC for years and they're a major player but with major troubles turning successful profit and paying down debt. You'd think legalizing weed would make their business boom but that's not always the case.

Yeah I own some Liberty Health Sciences (LHSIF) they run 26 dispensaries in Florida and are a seed to store highly-scientific grower. Their earnings report last week 6-month tracking year over year was 36MM vs. 16MM. Long hold for me

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

This is Not political at all but gives a great breakdown on the future of taxes during the next four years.

[Halfcan]

Hard to believe people voted for higher taxes. Dumbest shit I have ever seen.

Personal and corporate debt will be skyrocketing. That is why I am looking at Mid-cap financial services and banks that pay steady dividends. They have been doing great for me so far and another big day today.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

Hard to believe people voted for higher taxes. Dumbest shit I have ever seen.

Personal and corporate debt will be skyrocketing. That is why I am looking at Mid-cap financial services and banks that pay steady dividends. They have been doing great for me so far and another big day today.

Who knew so many people made over $400k/year?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Who knew so many people made over $400k/year?

What, you're not a millionaire?

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Who knew so many people made over $400k/year?

What about higher Corporation taxes? The increase will be passed on to consumers. I guess people forgot how high food was during Obama. Gas prices were double and all of our utility bills had a fuel charge added. The housing market crashed. The market tanked and banks got a bailout. Interest rates were double. Unemployment Double.

Will all of this happen again? My best guess is yes.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

What about higher Corporation taxes? The increase will be passed on to consumers. I guess people forgot how high food was during Obama. Gas prices were double and all of our utility bills had a fuel charge added. The housing market crashed. The market tanked and banks got a bailout. Interest rates were double. Unemployment Double.

Will all of this happen again? My best guess is yes.

It will likely be effected, yes. But Biden's tax plan is hardly progressive and for most Americans the effect will be minimal.

The biggest issue we will see if deflationary pressure. It's coming regardless of who won the election as it's been happening for years. The Feds continuing to prop up the market, along with injecting money into the economy. This societal buildup of extending credit and accumulation of debt will lead to many problems in the next few years and some form of economic downturn.

[lewdog]

I wish TwistedChief would come drop some financial knowledge in this thread.

He’s very informative and connected to the know.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

It will likely be effected, yes. But Biden's tax plan is hardly progressive and for most Americans the effect will be minimal.

The biggest issue we will see if deflationary pressure. It's coming regardless of who won the election as it's been happening for years. The Feds continuing to prop up the market, along with injecting money into the economy. This societal buildup of extending credit and accumulation of debt will lead to many problems in the next few years and some form of economic downturn.

I've thought this since 08. I also thought stagflation would be in full effect because interest rates have been all but 0% since 9/11. That hasn't come to pass either I'm not economist enough to know, but I'm open to missing the boat. It's certainly possible that it just doesn't matter.

I mean Debt:GDP was almost as high as it's ever been PRE-COVID. I'm sure it's rocketed past that now.

In principle I agree, but

Check your PM's fool.

[Shiver Me Timbers]

Originally Posted by lewdog

It will likely be effected, yes. But Biden's tax plan is hardly progressive and for most Americans the effect will be minimal.

The biggest issue we will see if deflationary pressure. It's coming regardless of who won the election as it's been happening for years. The Feds continuing to prop up the market, along with injecting money into the economy. This societal buildup of extending credit and accumulation of debt will lead to many problems in the next few years and some form of economic downturn.

I do not see deflation coming.If the economy severely contracts we will have "stagflation".