David Carr " Chiefs have higher upside with Mahomes"

[Deberg_1990]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Yet, here we are looking at the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we've seen year after year.



The Chiefs have made three playoff appearances since Reid took over as head coach in 2013, losing once in the wild-card game (2013) and twice in the divisional round (2015, 2016). I'm a fan of Reid and quarterback Alex Smith, but with the way things are right now, they'll be sitting at home while Pittsburgh and New England duke it out on Championship Sunday.

I was Smith's teammate in San Francisco for one year (2010) and I got to know him well. When the weather starts playing a bigger factor in games late in the season, he's not a guy who can make tough throws in tough conditions. He's particular and wants the football a certain way. The colder the weather the firmer the ball and other conditions make the ball slippery. It's really hard to play in inclement weather as a quarterback, yet there are some guys -- like Brett Favre -- who could grab a ball out of a bucket of water or pile of mud and hurl it downfield. But everybody's not like that, including Smith. The conditions have to be right and the running game has to be there. As we've witnessed throughout his career, Smith isn't often going to transcend an offense and win a game on huge throws -- a frequent critique. He's just not that type of quarterback.

Early in the season, we saw Smith make those big plays and the Chiefs were rolling. We've seen downfield shots slowly digress as the season's gone on, a trend that goes back to at least the past two seasons. Since 2015, Smith has been far more effective throwing the ball down field (20-pus air yards) through the Chiefs' first eight games than he has in their final eight, completing more passes (42.1 percent vs. 36.7 percent) with a better TD-to-INT ratio (8:0 vs. 2:4) and a significantly higher passer rating (124.3 vs. 63.1).

Furthermore, since Smith's first year with the Chiefs in 2013, his passer rating on pass attempts of more than 20 yards has fallen off in the second half of the season.

September: 92.0
October: 111.1
November: 63.5
Dec.-Jan.: 68.8

The Chiefs' high-flying offense started to stall after the Steelers exposed a weakness in Week 6. Pittsburgh played more zone coverage and allowed them to throw the ball underneath by respecting the ability of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to make things happen downfield. In addition, the run game hasn't been as effective the last five games (the Chiefs are 1-4 in that stretch), averaging 81 rush yards per game. That's 70 yards per game fewer than Kansas City put up in its first five games (all wins). In my opinion, Smith needs the run game to improve or we'll likely see him continue to struggle throwing the ball downfield as this season progresses.

I know this sounds crazy, but there's a case for Patrick Mahomes, who played well in the preseason, to start in place of Smith as the playoffs near. The Chiefs gave up a third-rounder and next year's first to draft Mahomes, viewing him as their franchise quarterback of the future. He's a gunslinger who adds another dimension in the pass game when a) the weather worsens, and b) they're trying to go head to head with the AFC's best offenses.

It's definitely possible the Chiefs could find themselves in a Nathan Peterman situation, especially if they don't handle the timing of the switch well. We don't know. What I do know, though, is we can expect the same ending to the Chiefs' story if they don't change up their cast of characters.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-limits-chiefs

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by bigjosh

Shit I was wrong. My mistake. The Smith White Knight in this thread is the one that was leaving forever.

He received a massive amount of PMs begging him to stay

[bigjosh]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

He received a massive amount of PMs begging him to stay

That being said, penbrook is probably grounded and not allowed to use the internet for a few weeks or something.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by stevieray

the whole team played like shit.

...try harder.

Can't wait for a real qb to come in so we can prove once and for all how wrong this idea is. Our receivers play like shit because our qb won't throw them the ball, including one of the most explosive receivers in the game. Our RB is struggling because defenses are loading 8 in a box. Our ol is struggling because our qb can't stretch a simple cover 2. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that defenses are specifically scheming against our qbs limitations.

This is football. It's a team sport but the qb is by far the most influential piece. And in the last 5 games, our qb has played like complete dog shit.

[NWTF]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

I don't have to act like anything.

I said after the game that a good offense would have scored 30+ on that swiss cheese defense, and said Brady would throw for 350 and score 30+ easily. Guys were open, the D wasn't good by Pitt at all.

What happened when a real QB went against the Steelers the following week?

Alex is a gimmick QB. He runs a gimmick offense. Option read this, screen pass that. He sucks at dropping back, reading a defense, and delivering the ball.

I don't hate him, I just think he's a timid QB who overanalyzes things and suffers from paralysis by analysis half of the time he drops back and is expected to make a post snap read and the throw the ball.

Totally agree. He absolutely needs a running game to be comfortable in the passing game. Andy has circumvented the issue of lack of a running game at times with misdirection, quick bubble screens, delayed shovel passes, gimmick/trick plays, etc, ala smoke and mirrors, but it isnt working now.

Its like what some commentator said last week. They really have no offensive identity right now .....other than trick plays.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by NWTF

Totally agree. He absolutely needs a running game to be comfortable in the passing game. Andy has circumvented the issue of lack of a running game at times with misdirection, quick bubble screens, delayed shovel passes, gimmick/trick plays, etc, ala smoke and mirrors, but it isnt working now.

Its like what some commentator said last week. They really have no offensive identity right now .....other than trick plays.

Someone that is remotely impartial should look deeper into how well most QBs perform when they have minimal run game to balance the offense.

Who is willing, and not the slackass that I am.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

You also didn't hear much criticism when the Chiefs offense was rolling early in the year. Most people on Cp are happy to compliment and embrace good Alex Smith. But good Alex Smith usually shows up a few consecutive games in a year. We don't like game manager Alex Smith even if it wins games (we don't think that wins enough games that matter). And we sure as hell don't support this horrible version of Alex Smith who can't even beat a simple zone defense.

It's the same QB. You think he forgot how to play football in a couple wks?

It is not a simple zone defense. If you think it is so easy, you go out and you try beating it. Defenses are disguising it well and confusing him. And it is not just the passing game that is struggling, our running game is horrible right now. Teams are not stacking the box, zone D gets killed when you do that they are running a base zone D. Our running has got to improve as well posters here just don't like to talk about that because it does not involve criticizing Smitty.

Reid deserves blame too he's the one who is calling the plays. Reid will figure the zone D out. Reid and Smitty are both too good not to.

I'm confident things will change. What defenses are trying is working right now but it will not work forever. Smitty will get back on track. I'm actually glad it is happening now. Gives us time to figure it out before the playoffs start.

A lot of you just like to panic like a nuclear war is going to happen because of a few bad games. Either they will figure it out and get this ship going in the right direction but even if they don't we have Mahomes for next season so it is not the end of the world. Either way, life goes on.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

It's the same QB. You think he forgot how to play football in a couple wks?

It is not a simple zone defense. If you think it is so easy, you go out and you try beating it. Defenses are disguising it well and confusing him. And it is not just the passing game that is struggling, our running game is horrible right now. Teams are not stacking the box, zone D gets killed when you do that they are running a base zone D. Our running has got to improve as well posters here just don't like to talk about that because it does not involve criticizing Smitty.

Reid deserves blame too he's the one who is calling the plays. Reid will figure the zone D out. Reid and Smitty are both too good not to.

I'm confident things will change. What defenses are trying is working right now but it will not work forever. Smitty will get back on track. I'm actually glad it is happening now. Gives us time to figure it out before the playoffs start.

A lot of you just like to panic like a nuclear war is going to happen because of a few bad games. Either they will figure it out and get this ship going in the right direction but even if they don't we have Mahomes for next season so it is not the end of the world. Either way, life goes on.

Seriously dumbass, it's a cover 2.

If Alex Smith was half as smart as most seem to think he is, he should have had it figured out 10 years ago.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by milkman

Seriously dumbass, it's a cover 2.

If Alex Smith was half as smart as most seem to think he is, he should have had it figured out 10 years ago.

F**k you b**ch.. Learn how to read. I never said it wasn't cover 2 I said they were disguising it.

Like I said either way, Reid will eventually figure it out. He's too good a HC not to

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

It's the same QB. You think he forgot how to play football in a couple wks?

It is not a simple zone defense. If you think it is so easy, you go out and you try beating it. Defenses are disguising it well and confusing him. And it is not just the passing game that is struggling, our running game is horrible right now. Teams are not stacking the box, zone D gets killed when you do that they are running a base zone D. Our running has got to improve as well posters here just don't like to talk about that because it does not involve criticizing Smitty.

Reid deserves blame too he's the one who is calling the plays. Reid will figure the zone D out. Reid and Smitty are both too good not to.

I'm confident things will change. What defenses are trying is working right now but it will not work forever. Smitty will get back on track. I'm actually glad it is happening now. Gives us time to figure it out before the playoffs start.

A lot of you just like to panic like a nuclear war is going to happen because of a few bad games. Either they will figure it out and get this ship going in the right direction but even if they don't we have Mahomes for next season so it is not the end of the world. Either way, life goes on.

This is not the same qb. Alex is playing like a totally different qb. And it started in Pittsburgh when they ran zone blitz. Teams have schemed against our gimmicks. That shovel pass to Kelce and the misdirections don't fool anyone anymore. And our qb isn't making the right reads pre snap. When he doesn't know where to go he has terrible pocket presence and tends to slide into pressure. And as we all know if he doesn't like his primary read he immediately moves to check down.

Defenses went back to what was stopping him in the past. They're stacking against the run. They're abandoning all deep zones and focusing exclusively on the flats. When you play with such a ridiculously short field, you can be a hell of a lot more aggressive at rushing the passer. Playing zone doesn't mean playing passive. The steelers beat us because they played aggressive zone with a lot of disguise and other teams are copycatting them. And it's working.

And we all know the solution that Alex will never do. Be aggressive, take some chances, throw the ball in tight windows on timing routes, stretch the field to keep the defense honest. Teams are abandoning deep zones and we're still relying exclusively on this checkdown nonsense. Playcalling did a great job masking Alex Smith early in the year. But playcalling isn't going to Loosen up the defense. That is squarely on Alex Smith to be a little less Alex Smith. We know he's capable of doing it and that's the frustrating part. He just won't do it because it's not the safe thing to do.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

If you're still hoping for Alex to turn back into the guy we saw the first month of the season, you're like a little kid hoping the dog that ran away a month ago comes back home... hell, its more like hoping the dog comes back to life that you watched die with your own eyes.

It's over. Alex Smith is who he is and it will never change. This team will not be able to win when it counts most with him.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

F**k you b**ch.. Learn how to read. I never said it wasn't cover 2 I said they were disguising it.

Like I said either way, Reid will eventually figure it out. He's too good a HC not to

Andy has figured it out. There's guys wide open and we see that on film.

His QB isn't figuring it out on the field.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

If you're still hoping for Alex to turn back into the guy we saw the first month of the season, you're like a little kid hoping the dog that ran away a month ago comes back home... hell, its more like hoping the dog comes back to life that you watched die with your own eyes.

It's over. Alex Smith is who he is and it will never change. This team will not be able to win when it counts most with him.

Right because football is a 1-on-1 sport and Alex Smith plays defense and special teams.

F**k out of here with that BS. If Broncos can win a SB with an old limp d**k Peyton Manning then you can win a SB in the NFL with pretty much any half decent QB.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Right because football is a 1-on-1 sport and Alex Smith plays defense and special teams.

F**k out of here with that BS. If Broncos can win a SB with an old limp d**k Peyton Manning then you can win a SB in the NFL with pretty much any half decent QB.

Did you watch their defense in 2015? Not even Alex Smith could f**k that up.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

F**k you b**ch.. Learn how to read. I never said it wasn't cover 2 I said they were disguising it.

Like I said either way, Reid will eventually figure it out. He's too good a HC not to

And your dumbass QB is getting outsmarted, because he is isn't nearly as smart as you useless ****ing bitches think he is.

He's a mediocre, dumbass QB.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Right because football is a 1-on-1 sport and Alex Smith plays defense and special teams.

F**k out of here with that BS. If Broncos can win a SB with an old limp d**k Peyton Manning then you can win a SB in the NFL with pretty much any half decent QB.

Alex Smith lost a game where his defense gave up ZERO TD's last year. He just lost a game where his sense gave up 12 points.

7 of 9 Chiefs losses the last 2 years were when the Chiefs gave up 19 points or less.

Quit being stupid, dumbass.