Call Your Shot: Who's the Chiefs first pick?

[staylor26]

Rule: You can change your answer up until next Thursday!

This might be the toughest year yet for this. I can see so many different possibilities, especially considering that I think there's a solid chance the Chiefs trade up.

Edit: It's draft day and I'm changing my pick!

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

There's way too much smoke about the Chiefs trading up and/or them targeting a LT. I'm going with a guy that I think could make it into our range, who also has the kind of upside that would have Veach itching to make a move to go get him.

[Wallymo]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Actually if you do the variance between like 27-37 WR's hit at a better rate than OT's do.

On a year-to-year basis, that makes sense. But this is supposed to be a historically deep OT class, where prospects will be available late in the first round who would normaly be scooped up in the top 15. I wouldn't compare an OT picked at 30 this year to one picked around the same spot most years.

But I'm only basing my opinion and regurgitating analysis I've read from others. It does makes sense though. The Chiefs won't have the option to draft a long-term answer at LT near the end of the first round very often. Most elite LTs seem to generally come from the top of the draft.

I too would love the Chiefs to draft a true #1 receiver. An alpha! But I think the team would be smart to take the big body that normally wouldn't be there.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Wallymo

On a year-to-year basis, that makes sense. But this is supposed to be a historically deep OT class, where prospects will be available late in the first round who would normaly be scooped up in the top 15. I wouldn't compare an OT picked at 30 this year to one picked around the same spot most years.

But I'm only basing my opinion and regurgitating analysis I've read from others. It does makes sense though. The Chiefs won't have the option to draft a long-term answer at LT near the end of the first round very often. Most elite LTs seem to generally come from the top of the draft.

I too would love the Chiefs to draft a true #1 receiver. An alpha! But I think the team would be smart to take the big body that normally wouldn't be there.

I don't even really buy there will be a better one there than usual, just more OT's go in the first round than usual is how that usually works.

Everyone was all hot and heavy that Anton Harrison was a really good prospect for where he'd go...and so far we see how that worked out.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

It's looking more and more like the draft is going to start like this:

1. Caleb
2. Daniels
3. Maye
4. MHJ

And then the draft really starts at 5 with the Chargers. Sounds like they are leaning OT (fingers crossed).

Yeah - that top 4 is completely sensible.

The Chargers would be better served trying to get the Bears to trade up from 9 for Nabers and then grabbing someone like Fashanu or Odunze if they don't just take Nabers themselves (which is what they SHOULD be doing).

Then the Giants should take McCarthy. Not because I think he's great, but because I think he's decent enough and a clear upgrade on Jones. I think they can eventually win the East if the Eagles continue to sputter with someone like McCarthy and continued development of the roster.

They can't do that with Daniel Jones. The mob boss playing better football than him last year demonstrated just how bad Jones is. It didn't tell me Denunzio or whatever the hell his name was is worth a damn or can be a viable starter. It just told me that Jones can't be.

Then at 7 I could see things being truly weird but I would expect that to be Alt. Could teams then start to get aggressive to get to 8 and Fashanu or Odunze? Stay tuned, I suppose. Because that's where things really seem to have an obvious easy answer.

For me the draft order, if not the teams, should be pretty simple through the top 10.

Williams
Daniels
Maye
MHJ
Nabers
McCarthy
Alt
Odunze
Fashanu
Dallas Turner

Then you might see a little mini-run of defensive players continuing after turner with Mitchell, Verse, Murphy, Latu, Arnold and Wiggins all likely to go in the next 8-10 spots, IMO. A couple OTs (Latham, Mims, Fautanu) mixed in with those guys. BTJ being the wild-card that could fall anywhere from 12 through 20.

But that's how slides happen and that's the sort of thing that could open it up for the Chiefs to slip up there and get him.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - that top 4 is completely sensible.

The Chargers would be better served trying to get the Bears to trade up from 9 for Nabers and then grabbing someone like Fashanu or Odunze if they don't just take Nabers themselves (which is what they SHOULD be doing).

Then the Giants should take McCarthy. Not because I think he's great, but because I think he's decent enough and a clear upgrade on Jones. I think they can eventually win the East if the Eagles continue to sputter with someone like McCarthy and continued development of the roster.

They can't do that with Daniel Jones. The mob boss playing better football than him last year demonstrated just how bad Jones is. It didn't tell me Denunzio or whatever the hell his name was is worth a damn or can be a viable starter. It just told me that Jones can't be.

Then at 7 I could see things being truly weird but I would expect that to be Alt. Could teams then start to get aggressive to get to 8 and Fashanu or Odunze? Stay tuned, I suppose. Because that's where things really seem to have an obvious easy answer.

I could see the Bears trying to move down out of that spot....Pace may try to buy himself a few more years that way if he can accumulate some picks.

[The Franchise]

NFL Draft notes I’ve gathered after speaking with multiple team sources:

• #AZCardinals are driving a hard bargain to move back and are “more than happy” to take Marvin Harrison Jr. at 4

• #Chargers have explored moving down from 5, but are content staying put — likely to… pic.twitter.com/24hn81sAAB

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) April 24, 2024

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

NFL Draft notes I’ve gathered after speaking with multiple team sources:

• #AZCardinals are driving a hard bargain to move back and are “more than happy” to take Marvin Harrison Jr. at 4

• #Chargers have explored moving down from 5, but are content staying put — likely to… pic.twitter.com/24hn81sAAB

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) April 24, 2024

The Chargers staying at 5 and taking Alt would just make me smile.

Not because I don't think he's a very good prospect. He is.

But because it would demonstrate - LOUDLY - that Jim Harbaugh is every bit the archaic mongoloid dinosaur we think he is.

[staylor26]

I know it's a little too early to say "I told you so" but I never got all the talk about the Cardinals trading back. They have a ton of picks. It makes no sense to trade back and miss out on an elite talent for the 2nd year in a row.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I know it's a little too early to say "I told you so" but I never got all the talk about the Cardinals trading back. They have a ton of picks. It makes no sense to trade back and miss out on an elite talent for the 2nd year in a row.

It only makes sense if someone is going to offer them a massive load for it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I know it's a little too early to say "I told you so" but I never got all the talk about the Cardinals trading back. They have a ton of picks. It makes no sense to trade back and miss out on an elite talent for the 2nd year in a row.

The only way it made sense is if someone floored them in the exchange. Who even could? I don't think 11 and 23 from Minnesota qualifies and is there anyone else that can offer them more than that over the next 2 seasons?

And even if they could...for JJ McCarthy? Nah.

The Chargers were always the team to look for with a trade-down, IMO. Because 11 and 23 for 5 MIGHT be enough to get them off that pick. It wouldn't be if I were them - that's an easy Nabers selection. Bank your chips.

But it would be getting nearer defensible.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The only way it made sense is if someone floored them in the exchange. Who even could? I don't think 11 and 23 from Minnesota qualifies and is there anyone else that can offer them more than that over the next 2 seasons?

And even if they could...for JJ McCarthy? Nah.

The Chargers were always the team to look for with a trade-down, IMO. Because 11 and 23 for 5 MIGHT be enough to get them off that pick. It wouldn't be if I were them - that's an easy Nabers selection. Bank your chips.

But it would be getting nearer defensible.

I think there's a good chance the Chargers trade down with the Vikings. 11 would let them grab a top OT and 23 would net them a pretty good WR. They could get Fuaga and Mitchell with those picks.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The Chargers staying at 5 and taking Alt would just make me smile.

Not because I don't think he's a very good prospect. He is.

But because it would demonstrate - LOUDLY - that Jim Harbaugh is every bit the archaic mongoloid dinosaur we think he is.

Chargers moving up to take Alt would make my night.

[Kiimo]

Originally Posted by O.city

So looking at history.....I don't think I'd be too open to trading that much to get up and take the 4th WR in the class. Is it a historic all time class of WR's, because unless it is, there's probably just as good of a chance that the 7th best WR ends up as good as the 4th.

Watch more Brian Thomas film. Any other year he'd be the WR1

If the Chiefs have an opportunity to move up and grab him with their extra 3rd they have next year they should sprint up to the podium

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Chargers moving up to take Alt would make my night.

Why would they need to trade up?

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The only way it made sense is if someone floored them in the exchange. Who even could? I don't think 11 and 23 from Minnesota qualifies and is there anyone else that can offer them more than that over the next 2 seasons?

And even if they could...for JJ McCarthy? Nah.

The Chargers were always the team to look for with a trade-down, IMO. Because 11 and 23 for 5 MIGHT be enough to get them off that pick. It wouldn't be if I were them - that's an easy Nabers selection. Bank your chips.

But it would be getting nearer defensible.

Originally Posted by Mecca

It only makes sense if someone is going to offer them a massive load for it.

Yea, obviously if you got an offer you can't refuse, that's different. But the Chargers are only one spot back, and much more eager to trade down, so it was always unlikely.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

I think there's a good chance the Chargers trade down with the Vikings. 11 would let them grab a top OT and 23 would net them a pretty good WR. They could get Fuaga and Mitchell with those picks.

If it keeps Nabers out of LA, I'm all for it.