Post-Season Mock 1.0

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

I always appreciate the amount of research and work you put into this. But the fact that your paragraph on Mahomes is 75% red flag and inconsistency mentions should tell you enough about him as an option for the Chiefs at number 27. When you land the likes of Jones, and Peters who were huge value picks where they were drafted I cannot see Dorsey turning down a more proven prospect at any given position with that 27 pick.

Mahomes is a great athlete and has flash and appeal, but he will not get away with athleticism alone at the next level. "The pocket" does not exist with this guy. O-linemen would have fits with him back there, never knowing where the launch point is, or when he is actually throwing the ball.

Too raw.

A "first round or bust", elite qb starved franchise like the Chiefs cannot make a huge mistake by caving to the pressure of the sentiment, and grossly overdrafting what will likely amount to a guy who is out of the league in a couple years. I want to like Mahomes, but there are just too many things to fix with him.

I think Mahomes came out a year too early. He's going to need work. I see enough there that he's going to be a good football player if he gets the right coaching staff to work on those things. I think KC is a perfect situation for him. He'd have the time to refine his game, much like Rodgers did in GB. I'd, ideally, love to be able to get him in round 2. This is a QB starved NFL. They reach every year for QBs, and they reach big. I don't think he's going to fall out of the top 10 picks of round 2.

IF Cleveland doesn't got QB at 1.1, then there is a legitimate chance then they likely don't like anyone enough to strike at 12, but I'd bet they'll take a shot at 33. I fully expect Trubisky, Kizer, and Watson (and I have my issues with this kid too) to be the first 3 off the board and all by pick 13. That leaves Mahomes as the next guy up. After those four, the only other QBs I like in this draft are Peterman and Webb but I see them both as 4th rounders that you take with the expectation of backup and hope they can become more.

The biggest reason for taking Mahomes in round 1 though, isn't because he's necessarily a round 1 QB. It's because you get a 5th year option and you're still getting a QB for really cheap. The projection for last year's 27th pick was 9.3 million with 5.0 million guaranteed and that's exactly what it ended up being. The annual cap breakdowns for those 1st four years are approximately 1.7, 2.1, 2.6, and 3.0 million. The 5th year option for that pick is the average of the 3rd through 25th highest salaries at that position, which was 16.0 million for 2016. Even if that number goes up to 20 million by that point, if he's your starter it is likely a very cheap number. If he's not going to be your starter, you simply don't pick up the option.

Perspective wise, Christian Hackenberg went 51st overall last year. Mahomes shows considerably more talent than Hackenberg.

His scouting report should actually read alot like Derek Carr's who went 36th overall. Here it was from NFL.com:

ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS Athletic with very good feet -- can roll the pocket, evade the rush or escape when pocket crumbles. Terrific arm talent -- releases from the ear and can make all the throws. Quick-armed with wrist snap. Can alter his platform and throw on the move or off his back foot. Throws come out on time and accurately. Drills short-to-intermediate throws and flashes touch. Likes to play and it shows. Sells out to make a play. Record-breaking production. Adapted to coaching/system change and receiver turnover. Improved ball security -- fumbled only once as a senior compared to 12 times the previous two seasons. Desirable intangibles for the position -- advanced maturity, leadership and intelligence. Shows poise and moxie. On-field general who commands the huddle. Passionate about the game and works at his craft.
WEAKNESSES Lacks ideal height and has relatively small hands. Bulk is just adequate. Could stand to improve as a deep passer. At times tries to do too much and forces some throws. Occasionally throws off balance unnecessarily and sails some throws. Operated out of the shotgun and pistol and made a lot short/lateral throws and half-field reads. Production is inflated by spread offense and porous Mountain West Conference defenses -- nine 2013 opponents (excluding an FCS opponent) ranked between 81st and 125th nationally in scoring defense and/or passing defense. Had his worst game in the Las Vegas Bowl against USC.
DRAFT PROJECTION Round 1
BOTTOM LINE Athletic, tough, instinctive, strong-armed, highly competitive quarterback who will impress in workouts, interviews and on the board, and improved his draft standing with those skills in the postseason. Elevated the Fresno State program and profiles like a gunslinger, though he’d be better served in the long run honing his game-management skills. Will be a starter sooner rather than later and the degree to which he’s able to make those around him better will determine his ceiling.