***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Me too.

About 80% in the winter on average. Higher (which is normal when the air cools) but still nowhere near Houston as loochy claimed.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Frosty

About 80% in the winter on average. Higher (which is normal when the air cools) but still nowhere near Houston as loochy claimed.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

It rains every damn day there. How would it not be humid?

[banyon]

Originally Posted by BWillie

So Ive done the research now to see how this effects people 18 to 50 compared to older people.

If Covid-19 infected as many people under 50 as the flu every year, then roughly 18,000 more would die each year.

It appears Covid-19 is about 5x as deadly to people under 50 as the regular flu. But the flu isn't really deadly for us to begin with. So there is almost no reason to care about the population in this age group. When you consider that this age group still accounts for some middle aged ppl with underlying conditions like hypertension, diabetes then one can conclude that the flu or covid-19 is almost of no concern to a normal healthy adult, almost at all.

Now it appears Covid-19 is 15x to 20x as lethal to those 65 years+ than the regular flu, which is already pretty devasting to begin with for that population. ESPECIALLY for those over 80.

My grandma got the regular flu at 90, then got pneumonia and died. Its always been a big concern for the elderly and covid 19 is exponentially worse unfortunately. Makes you wonder why nursing homes even exist to put old ppl in close proximity to each other. One would think with a dwindling immune system you should avoid close contact with ppl.

Conclusion, make all of the old ppl stay inside and watch Matlock and Wheel of Fortune. Be completely indifferent if anyone under 50 gets it unless they have an underlying condition. And it has already been established that for some reason Covid-19 not only is very mild on children but they don't even contract it at near the rate of the rest of the population.

Based on CDC flu numbers compared to known mortality rate of different age groups of Covid19: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

This all seems accurate to me. But single strand RNA viruses are prone to mutation, so things could change. For an indicator, look what happened with Spanish Flu in the Summer/Fall of 1918.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by banyon

This all seems accurate to me. But single strand RNA viruses are prone to mutation, so things could change. For an indicator, look what happened with Spanish Flu in the Summer/Fall of 1918.

Did the virus mutate then or did it simply come back after the summer? I've never done much research on the topic.

[TLO]

I also mentioned this in the DC thread, but I'm officially more worried about the ensuing public panic than I am about the actual virus. People are nuts.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by TLO

I also mentioned this in the DC thread, but I'm officially more worried about the ensuing public panic than I am about the actual virus. People are nuts.

Hoarding toilet paper in a time of crisis is perfectly rational!

[suzzer99]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Great site to track stats and progression.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...e-tot-outchina

[banyon]

Originally Posted by TLO

Did the virus mutate then or did it simply come back after the summer? I've never done much research on the topic.

There was a mutation which increased mortality in late summer after many governments had declared victory.


I listened to this audiobook on kindle very good info on that pandemic:

https://www.audible.com/pd/Very-Very...ook/B077TZXDGQ

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by eDave

We are a team of medical experts following COVID-19's progression closely. Ask Us Anything.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...rts_following/

There's some good stuff in there. A few that stood out to me:

The spectrum of disease still being defined but ~80% of people have mild disease and around 20% moderate to severe disease that requires hospitalization. - Dr. Carlos Del Rio

It is possible to stay uninfected! Yesterday in a press briefing, Dr. Nancy Messonnier at the CDC said that the secondary attack rate among family members of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is 10.5% so far. So that means that about 1 in 10 family members who have been exposed by a relative have gotten sick.

If you or a loved one gets sick, the advice I’ve seen from public health officials is to try to put a mask on them (that may be hard, given the scarcity of masks in the U.S. right now), and isolate them from others. The recommendation is to try to have them use their own bedroom and bathroom separately from the rest of the family. Of course, wash your hands and disinfect common contact surfaces frequently. - Brenda Goodman

Q: Will this end anytime soon(like in 2-3 years)? Or we will get used to it.
A: This remains an open question. It is possible, for instance, that the virus moves quickly across the globe and ultimately burns itself out. Or, this virus can become what we refer to as ‘endemic’ and becomes a part of our normal repertoire of viruses we have to contend with each year. This was, for instance, the case with H1N1. The virus emerged in 2009 and spread across the globe infecting many millions. Now, it has become part of the repertoire of viruses we expect to deal with each year - and vaccines are in development to help tackle the virus. Time will tell what course this particular virus takes. - Michael Mina, MD, PhD

The most common symptoms according to the WHO are: fever, tiredness, and dry cough. There are some reports of aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat, and diarrhea. (They seem to be mild and progress gradually - which seems somewhat different than flu, which can “hit you like a ton of brick” and cause rapid onset of symptoms - but again information is still evolving.)

Some people who are infected don’t develop any symptoms and don’t feel unwell at all. Most people (about 80%) recover without any specific treatment. For those that get severely ill, they can also have trouble breathing.

At this time we know it can be transmitted through droplets when someone sneezes or coughs- especially within 6 feet of you. And these droplets can survive on surfaces (so touching your eye/nose/mouth after touching surface that is contaminated can also spread infection. There are also some reports of fecal transmission. - Neha Pathak, MD

Q: Why should I worry or not worry? I see panic from some and total calm from others
A: I think it is important to 1) take this seriously and stay aware of the global and local situation, 2) be prepared, and 3) of course, not panic.

For many there are excellent local (e.g. at the city, state, province level) online resources that will let you know about what is happening with regards to the COVID-19 epidemic and response. Local public health websites tend to have good information on this. For a more global perspective, the WHO has a terrific website and even has a “myth busting” section where some of the more alarmist or conspiracy theory type issues are addressed (link below):

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...c/myth-busters

Knowledge and preparation guided by quality data will alleviate fear, anxiety, and panic. - Isaac Bogoch, MD

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by banyon

There was a mutation which increased mortality in late summer after many governments had declared victory.


I listened to this audiobook on kindle very good info on that pandemic:

https://www.audible.com/pd/Very-Very...ook/B077TZXDGQ

1918. Everyone thought it was over in the summer. In the month of October alone 200K Americans died from the virus.

[cdcox]

around 20% moderate to severe disease that requires hospitalization.

That has the potential to be a lot of hospital beds. King county (Seattle) has bought a hotel to isolate people who don't require hospitalization to preserve hospital beds for the truly sick.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by cdcox

That has the potential to be a lot of hospital beds. King county (Seattle) has bought a hotel to isolate people who don't require hospitalization to preserve hospital beds for the truly sick.

I wonder if the "moderate" disease requires hospitalization? I think that's what it was saying, but I'm not certain.

[FloridaMan88]

Just buy Charmin’s Forever Toilet Paper Roll... panic solved.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by cdcox

That has the potential to be a lot of hospital beds. King county (Seattle) has bought a hotel to isolate people who don't require hospitalization to preserve hospital beds for the truly sick.

There's another comment in there somewhere that touches on that point. Seems like local hospital capacity in the case of a big breakout is a very real concern.