Training Camp Roster Projection

[Direckshun]

You get 53 players. Let's see what you can do.

QB: Smith, Mahomes, Bray
RB: Ware, Hunt, Spiller, West
FB: Sherman

WR: Hill, Conley, Wilson, Robinson, Chesson, S. Jones
TE: Kelce, Harris, Escobar

LT: Fisher, Schwartz
LG: Witzmann, Ehinger
C: Morse, Fulton
RG: Duvarney-Tardif, Fulton
RT Schwartz, Reid

DE: Jones, Nunez-Roches, Jenkins
NT: Logan, Miller, Nunez-Roches
DE: Bailey, Kpassagnon

OLB: Ford, Hali
ILB: Wilson, March, Pierre-Louis
ILB: Johnson, Eligwe
OLB: Houston, Zombo

CB: Peters, Mitchell, Nelson, Gaines, White
S: Berry, Parker, Sorensen, Murray

K: Santos
P: Colquitt
LS: Winchester

That's 53.

[O.city]

One guy I'm keeping an eye on is Aaron Lynch. I think the 9ers are gonna cut him. He'd be a nice pickup for Olb depth

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Dude, I'm not sure what you're looking at to come to this conclusion. A Post June 1st cut would create $1.25 million in Cap Space but come with $7.34 million in Dead Money.

https://overthecap.com/player/tamba-hali/531

If they cut him after the 2017 season and before the 2018 season, those figures basically flipflop with $1.56 in Dead Money and $7 million in Cap Savings.

The dead money replaces the salary. The only thing 'added' is the accelerated signing bonus.

So his cap hit is worse yes, but not exorbitantly so. It's worse by the amount of the accelerated bonus. By saying that it only creates 1.25 million in cap space, you're double counting his salary (as both salary and dead money).

The 'dead money' IS the salary. Its dead because its guaranteed. If it wasnt guaranteed, it wouldnt be dead money. So if you don't subtract it from the team cap before adding the dead money back in, you're double counting. Otherwise where is it coming from? The math is pretty easy on this one.

Hell, since its a post June 1 cut, the bonus won't even accelerate onto this year's cap. There's effectively no penalty for cutting Hali from a financial perspective.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The dead money replaces the salary. The only thing 'added' is the accelerated signing bonus.

So his cap hit is worse yes, but not exorbitantly so. It's worse by the amount of the accelerated bonus. By saying that it only creates 1.25 million in cap space, you're double counting his salary (as both salary and dead money).

The 'dead money' IS the salary. Otherwise where is it coming from? The math is pretty easy on this one.

He'll, since its a post June 1 cut, the bonus won't even accelerate onto this year's cap. There's effectively no penalty for cutting Hali from a financial perspective.

Okay, I guess I totally misunderstood the Post June 1 cut.

So, what happens? If the Chiefs start 7-2, do they "silently" release him?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

They need to extend Peters for certain, they'll need a backup QB, OLBer depth and maybe a CB. If Ford doesn't progress, they may need two OLBers and with no first round draft choice, they'll be in a pickle during the draft.

I just don't see it as rosy.

If Ford doesn't progress, his 5th yr option is guaranteed for injury only and they'll cut him to free up 8 million.

They're fine next year.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If Ford doesn't progress, his 5th yr option is guaranteed for injury only and they'll cut him to free up 8 million.

They're fine next year.

But they'll need to replace him, which will probably cost more.

$10 million seems to be the going rate for 10 sack guys that are UFA's.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Okay, I guess I totally misunderstood the Post June 1 cut.

So, what happens? If the Chiefs start 7-2, do they "silently" release him?

Nothing. I see no real point either way. Just leave him on the IR and let him fade from the fans collective memory. Like I said, they don't gain anything by releasing him either. They took shit for cutting Charles when it clearly helped them. Just leave him there, avoid the PR headache and send him off to the glue factory.

The only difference on a post June 1 cut these days is that it takes all the remaining signing bonus charges and puts them on the following years cap. If it's pre June 1, they go on this year's cap. Guaranteed salary is this year's cap regardless of when cut.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

But they'll need to replace him, which will probably cost more.

$10 million seems to be the going rate for 10 sack guys that are UFA's.

Perhaps. But that's still only adding $2 million to the salary structure. There's room for that.

I just think there needs to be a fair amount of doom and gloom for the chiefs to really get in cap trouble. For instance, let's say that Ford isn't bad but rather blows an ACL in week 16. That's the nightmare scenario. Now his injury guarantee triggers but you still have to replace him. So you need that $10 million FA but don't free up the $8 million to pay him. So you backload a deal with a high bonus and end up robbing Peter in '18 to pay Paul in '19 when the backload kick in and you're now tight on the cap trying to find a plan for Peters.

I mean there are scenarios that could **** us, sure. But it takes a pretty dour outlook to get there.