***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[KingPriest2]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

#Breaking
Atlanta Mayor says ICU units are at capacity. @CBS46 #Coronavirus pic.twitter.com/l0fKdh8nYm

— shon gables cbs46 (@shongables) March 24, 2020

shit getting bad in Atlanta

No. They’re already at capacity before this hits. I just ready he’s trucks. This is the thing that people get upset about. The media posts crap like this and not explaining itb

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

20,000 deaths next week.

No ****ing way.

Sorry but the health care in this country isn't rotten to shit like it is in Italy and Iran.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

There will be around 341 deaths tomorrow.

There will be around 3800 deaths in the coming week.

Less sure but tracking to see 20,000 deaths next week.

It is math. It’s actually fairly easy to track since it’s based on trends built on hundreds of thousands of cases. You can take death rates from almost any country and work it backwards using this math.

All of the variables Pete is citing are not necessarily wrong, they just don’t factor in a meaningful way into the numbers that will determine how many people will be hospitalized, require life support, and die. Age/etc hasn’t proven to be as much of a factor as maxing out the health care system. Again, the math clearly shows this.

I said last week that people just can’t comprehend yet what’s about to hit. But the math is super easy:

Takes on average 8 days from infection to death.

The current death rate of reported cases is around 12.2% (we actually saw 9 more people than I predicted yesterday).

When the health care system is overwhelmed like in Italy that rate goes up to as high as 24%.

The 11,000+ who were infected today will result in approximately 1,352 deaths a week from now.

It is just math.

I do think the US numbers might be lower than the global death rate and slower to increase. I see it in countries like Germany as well. It might be due to the fact that it might take longer to die than the average 8 days because our treatment elongates it, and also saves lives that other places wouldn’t / don’t have that luxury.

Other countries I don’t think will have that luxury.

[Discuss Thrower]

Nevada blocks use of Hydrochloroquine for COVID cases.

https://twitter.com/GovSisolak/statu...620321280?s=19

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

No ****ing way.

Sorry but the health care in this country isn't rotten to shit like it is in Italy and Iran.

In 2000, Italy's healthcare system was regarded, by World Health Organization's ranking, as the 2nd best in the world after France, and according to the World Health Organization, Italy has the world's 6th highest life expectancy.

[RINGLEADER]

Current total deaths: 18,907

Total cases: 422,829

Average death rate if absolutely everyone who currently has tested positive for it but has not died recovers and no one else dies: 4.5%

There’s no way to know the actual rate because we’ll never get the data on the asymptomatic cases. That said I think you’re going to see around 30,000-40,000 more deaths from the recently infected group.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

No ****ing way.

Sorry but the health care in this country isn't rotten to shit like it is in Italy and Iran.

It’s has nothing to do with the health care system yet. If it gets to that point the numbers will be higher. Absent a treatment of course.

It is math. Use the current numbers on the future numbers and that’s what you get.

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

In 2000, Italy's healthcare system was regarded, by World Health Organization's ranking, as the 2nd best in the world .

Congrats to them for being #2.


20 years ago.




20 years later, not so much

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

you want to bury your head in the sand, stick your fingers in your ears, go start a new sunshine and rainbows thread.

you are pal. The news is bad. People need to know the facts.
Things are not going well. Health care workers taking care of victims are now dying because they don’t have masks. That’s a god damn tragedy that didn’t have to happen. People need to know the facts.

That may be true, but it's not happening because every single person in the country hasn't ****ing barricaded themselves inside their ****ing houses. You can be goddamn sure about that.

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by SPchief

Congrats to them for being #2.


20 years ago.




20 years later, not so much

Italy's healthcare system isn't perfect, but the people who live here are some of the healthiest in the world. Other countries can learn a lot from its example, writes Susan Levenstein, an American doctor in Rome.


from just a year ago.

https://www.thelocal.it/20190322/wha...d-about-health

[Bugeater]

WELL IF SUSAN LEVENSTIEN SAYS SO...

[eDave]

Savvy move by Google.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/goog...xtensions.html

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

WELL IF SUSAN LEVENSTIEN SAYS SO...

https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...-in-the-world/

italy was 2nd 2/17/20

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...-in-the-world/

italy was 2nd 2/17/20

I don't care about your useless garbage links and tweets. Not a single one offers any type of real information. They're all alarmist speculation and other assorted bullshit.

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

I don't care about your useless garbage links and tweets. Not a single one offers any type of real information. They're all alarmist speculation and other assorted bullshit.

I mean show me one thing that shows our health care is better than italy's other than bullshit american exceptionalism.