Mock 2/27/24 - Back to reality

[kccrow]

Extensions
OC Creed Humphrey 5y/67.5m w/8.75m SB Cap hits: 3.5/9.5/12.5/13.5/14.5/15.8 (+1.75) - One of the top 3 centers in the game right now, I think he's worth retaining but he has to clean up his snaps.
SS Justin Reid 3y/42.25m w/14.0m SB + convert 7.0m '24 salary to '25 OB 24.0m GAS. Cap hits: 10.8/13.6/15.6/16.6 (-3.50) - Reid is one of the pilots of the Chiefs defense with Bolton, you have to keep one and I'm choosing Reid.
PK Harrison Butker 5y/32.5m w/6.0m SB + 7.5m OB in '25, + convert 2.48m of '24 salary to SB Cap hits: 3.8/4.6/6.8/7.5/7.5/6.8 (-0.84) - Butkicker is in the final year of his deal and extending him can gain you a little cap.

Releases
WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling (-12.0) - No sense in keeping MVS around for any reason. He's just not reliable enough throughout a season.
DE Charles Omenihu (-7.22) - With Omenihu, it's take a pay cut on an injury year with a lucrative extension, or be cut. I have him cut, you can have him how you want him.

Trades
Chiefs trade WR Kadarius Toney to TEN for a conditional 2025 7th round pick (-2.53) - Toney punched his ticket into Reid's doghouse for sure and I think he's out one way or another.
Chiefs trade CB L'Jarius Sneed off of the Franchise Tag along with 1-32 to the Philadelphia Eagles for 1-22 and 2-50.

Restructures
QB Patrick Mahomes converts 35.9m roster bonus to signing bonus (-27.47)

FA Re-Signings
DT Chris Jones 3y/84.1m w/20.0m SB + 2.0m/y in LTBE incentives to create 3/90.1m contract Cap Hits: 22.8/27.8/30.7/4.8/4.0
LT Donovan Smith 1y/10.0m w/3.0m SB + 2m in UTBE incentives
LS James Winchester 3y/4.6m w/800k SB Cap Hits: 1.5/1.5/1.6
LB Drue Tranquill 2y/9.0m w/3.0m SB Cap Hits: 3.3/5.7
WR Mecole Hardman 3y/15.0m w/5.1m SB Cap Hits: 3.5/5.5/6.0
DE Malik Herring ERFA Tender
DB Nazeeh Johnson ERFA Tender
LB Jack Cochrane ERFA Tender
OG Mike Caliendo ERFA Tender
LB Cole Christiansen ERFA Tender

FA Acquisitions
WR Darnell Mooney (CHI) - 3y/28.5m w/6.75m SB Cap Hits: 5.0/10.0/13.5 - Electric Z/S WR that has put up 1k in this offense
QB Carson Wentz (LAR) - 1y/1.3m - Just a better backup QB than Gabbert
RB Antonio Gibson (WAS) - 2y/5.0m - A nice receiving back with rotational value as a runner
DT Jordan Elliott (CLE) 1y/2.0m - Flashes of strong potential and former Mizzou El Tigre
DE Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR) 1y/2.56m - Flashes solid play, bigger end that could start but might be best in a good rotation

Let Walk
QB Blaine Gabbert, S Mike Edwards, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, DT Tershawn Wharton, LB Willie Gay Jr, RB Jerick McKinnon, TE Blake Bell, WR Richie James, DT Matt Dickerson, TE Jody Fortson, DE Mike Danna

The Draft
1-022: WR Troy Franklin, Oregon (6'3" 180) - Alpha WR
2-050: DT Kris Jenkins, Jr, Michigan (6'3" 299)
2-064: OT Kiran Omegadjie, Yale (6'5" 318)
3-095: TE Theo Johnson, Penn State (6'6" 256)
4-133: CB Andru Phillips, Kentucky (5'11" 190)
5-158: LB Nathaniel Watson, Mississippi State (6'2" 245)
5-172: RB Kendall Milton, Georgia (6'1" 220)
7-250: SS Daijahn Anthony, Mississippi (6'0" 195)

The Roster
QB: P. Mahomes, C. Wentz
RB: I. Pacheco, A. Gibson, K. Milton
WR: R. Rice, T. Franklin, D. Mooney, M. Hardman, J. Watson, S. Moore
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, T. Johnson
LT: D. Smith, K. Omegadjie
LG: J. Thuney, W. Morris
OC: C. Humphrey, M. Caliendo
RG: T. Smith
RT: J. Taylor, L. Niang
DE: G. Karlaftis, M. Herring
DT: C. Jones, K. Jenkins
NT: I. Buggs, J. Elliott, N. Ferrell
DE: F. Anudike-Uzomah, Y. Gross-Matos, B. Thompson
LB: N. Bolton, D. Tranquill, L. Chenal, N. Watson, C. Jones
CB: T. McDuffie, J. Williams, J. Watson, A. Phillips, N. Jones
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, C. Conner, N. Johnson, D. Anthony
ST: H. Butker, M. Araiza, J. Winchester

[staylor26]

Worthy and Omegadjie are a very common duo in mock simulators for me.

Love it.

[ChiefsFanatic]

We should have a Keeper Mock Draft Thread.

Everyone only uses the thread to edit one post with their own personal mock drafts, and general player predictions, (or predictions for the season) etc.

No replying, and no posting comments etc. Just one post per user, and they edit that post as often as they like. Full disclosure, I don't even know if posts can be edited over and over.

Then, as soon as the team with the first pick is on the clock, on draft day, the thread is locked.

Then, we can all look back before the next draft to see who got what right, who was way off, and everyone can "keep" the players they believe they were right about, and those names will get added to their post in the new year's Keeper Mock Draft Thread.

There could be a sister thread discussing the Keeper Mock Draft Thread, so everyone can point out that they were right, etc. but the actual thread would not include comments, etc. so that it's clean as possible.

For me, like, I can't find my post from a few years ago, but I watched a KU Iowa State football game, and made a comment that I thought Purdy had some NFL potential. I wish I could point back to that post.

I bet a lot of posters have made a comment like that, that they wish they could look back on, but finding a post that old is not easy, for me, but probably especially for the people who have post counts in the tens of thousands.

Just a thought.

What do you guys think?

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Back to my personal reality after discussing trading for Justin Jefferson, doing exercises on trading away all our stars, and so on.

At the end of the day, I still feel like the Chiefs have to choose between Sneed, Jones, and Smith in terms of who they bring back. Really, I don't think you can expect to just tag everyone and pray you trade them, etc. It'd be nice to keep them all, and we'll see how things start to shape up, but for now, I'm prioritizing keeping my QB upright and keeping that insane pass rush intact. I also don't believe Veach will trade for a guy like Jefferson, even if I think it'd be a good time.

Offensively, you're going to see the theme here that Patrick is not going to be lacking for speed at WR. We're bringing explosion back to this offense.

Extensions
OC Creed Humphrey 5y/67.5m w/8.75m SB Cap hits: 3.5/9.5/12.5/13.5/14.5/15.8 (+1.75) - One of the top 3 centers in the game right now, I think he's worth retaining but he has to clean up his snaps.
SS Justin Reid 3y/42.25m w/14.0m SB + convert 7.0m '24 salary to '25 OB 24.0m GAS. Cap hits: 10.8/13.6/15.6/16.6 (-3.50) - Reid is one of the pilots of the Chiefs defense with Bolton, you have to keep one and I'm choosing Reid.
PK Harrison Butker 5y/32.5m w/6.0m SB + 7.5m OB in '25, + convert 2.48m of '24 salary to SB Cap hits: 3.8/4.6/6.8/7.5/7.5/6.8 (-0.84) - Butkicker is in the final year of his deal and extending him can gain you a little cap.

Releases
WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling (-12.0) - No sense in keeping MVS around for any reason. He's just not reliable enough throughout a season.
DE Charles Omenihu (-7.22) - With Omenihu, it's take a pay cut on an injury year with a lucrative extension, or be cut. I have him cut, you can have him how you want him.

Trades
Chiefs trade WR Kadarius Toney to TEN for a conditional 2025 7th round pick (-2.53) - Toney punched his ticket into Reid's doghouse for sure and I think he's out one way or another.

Restructures
QB Patrick Mahomes converts 35.9m roster bonus to signing bonus (-27.47)

FA Re-Signings
DT Chris Jones 3y/84.1m w/20.0m SB + 2.0m/y in LTBE incentives to create 3/90.1m contract Cap Hits: 22.8/27.8/30.7/4.8/4.0
LT Donovan Smith 1y/10.0m w/3.0m SB + 2m in UTBE incentives
LS James Winchester 3y/4.6m w/800k SB Cap Hits: 1.5/1.5/1.6
LB Drue Tranquill 2y/9.0m w/3.0m SB Cap Hits: 3.3/5.7
WR Mecole Hardman 3y/15.0m w/5.1m SB Cap Hits: 3.5/5.5/6.0
DE Malik Herring ERFA Tender
DB Nazeeh Johnson ERFA Tender
LB Jack Cochrane ERFA Tender
OG Mike Caliendo ERFA Tender
LB Cole Christiansen ERFA Tender

FA Acquisitions
WR Darnell Mooney (CHI) - 3y/28.5m w/6.75m SB Cap Hits: 5.0/10.0/13.5 - Electric Z/S WR that has put up 1k in this offense
QB Carson Wentz (LAR) - 1y/1.3m - Just a better backup QB than Gabbert
TE Harrison Bryant (CLE) 1y/1.8m - Good blocker and better receiver to replace Bell
DT Jordan Elliott (CLE) 1y/2.0m - Flashes of strong potential and former Mizzou El Tigre
DE Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR) 1y/2.56m - Flashes solid play, bigger end that could start but might be best in a good rotation

Let Walk
QB Blaine Gabbert, CB L'Jarius Sneed, S Mike Edwards, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, DT Tershawn Wharton, LB Willie Gay Jr, RB Jerick McKinnon, TE Blake Bell, WR Richie James, DT Matt Dickerson, TE Jody Fortson, DE Mike Danna

The Draft
1-032: WR Xavier Worthy, Texas (6'1" 179) - Changeup... Truly unbridled speed and can break a game open in a blink, DeSean Jackson-esque
2-064: OT Kiran Omegadjie, Yale (6'5" 318) - Insane size and athletic ability but limited by the strength of competition, LTotF
3-095: DT McKinnley Jackson, Texas A&M (6'2" 325) - Beast NT prospect that fires off the ball with authority and can disrupt the backfield
4-133: CB Khyree Jackson, Oregon (6'3" 197) - Long and fluid, disrupts the catch point but limited starting experience as 'Bama transfer
5-158: LB Nathaniel Watson, Mississippi State (6'2" 245) - Physical, downhill LB with good speed to replace Gay
5-172: RB Kendall Milton, Georgia (6'1" 220) - A Veach/Reid type of back that is one-cut and go with size and speed
7-250: SS Kenny Logan, Jr., Kansas (6'0" 210) - Hard-hitting safety for special teams and to fill back end with Conner replacing Edwards

The Roster
QB: P. Mahomes, C. Wentz
RB: I. Pacheco, K. Milton, L. Perine
WR: R. Rice, X. Worthy, D. Mooney, M. Hardman, J. Watson, S. Moore
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, H. Bryant
LT: D. Smith, K. Omegadjie
LG: J. Thuney, W. Morris
OC: C. Humphrey, M. Caliendo
RG: T. Smith
RT: J. Taylor, L. Niang
DE: G. Karlaftis, M. Herring
DT: C. Jones, J. Elliott
NT: I. Buggs, M. Jackson, N. Ferrell
DE: F. Anudike-Uzomah, Y. Gross-Matos, B. Thompson
LB: N. Bolton, D. Tranquill, L. Chenal, N. Watson, C. Jones
CB: T. McDuffie, J. Williams, J. Watson, K. Jackson, N. Jones
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, C. Conner, N. Johnson, K. Logan
ST: H. Butker, M. Araiza, J. Winchester

I don’t disagree with most of this. The few things I do disagree with are:

Toney - nobody is trading for him. He with either ride the bench or be cut this year.

D Smith - I think the Chiefs have faith that Wanya Morris can fill in nicely at LT. And at the fraction of the cost. He filled in nicely for D Smith in weeks 12 through 17. But I do believe the Chiefs bring in camp fodder to compete with him.

N. Allegretti is still on this team next year as an important starter or B/U.

Backup QB - I think Oladokun has shown promise as a competent B/U QB. I’m sure there will be a veteran competing for the B/U spot but we are in that window where ever $ counts. If a position can be adequately filled by a player with a small cap hit I think that’s the direction we go just to keep our superstars around. Ie if not re-signing D Smith and not paying a B/U QB (and paying your punter pennies etc) means you get to keep Sneed. I think you do it. Willams/Watson/Boye Doe are great corners but aren’t in the same ballpark as Sneed and McDuffie

[bigjosh]

I like it.

I dont think worthy measures as tall as his bio. He screams 5’10” (listed at 6’1”)

He is an awesome fit for this offense. He could take over alot of the end arounds, screens and sweeps to get involved year one like rice did, while being a bit better of a deep threat too.


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[Chris Meck]

I like it, other than nobody's giving anything for Toney.

[Dunerdr]

I disagree. Someone will give a conditional 7 for a punt returner in Toney.

[ntexascardfan]

Worthy also adds the dimension of being a lethal punt returner for us.

[wachashi]

If I'm putting money on it, we're bringing Smith back and drafting a high-upside LTotF like you've done here. Protecting Mahomes is priority one.

If the board falls right, we could see an LT in Round 1 then a trade-up for Worthy in Round 2.

[DJ's left nut]

I'm so close to liking this but I just can't get my head around the idea of 'letting Sneed walk'.

And if you do, it's presumably because you tagged Jones to buy time to work out a deal? Well if you do that and his starting baseline salary for 2024 is $32 million(ish) then there's no way he signs for 3/$84 million. It'll take more than that once you tag him. Which is why you don't tag him, JMHO.

Put a tag/trade of Sneed for a mid/late 2nd and a 4th in there with the thought that the deal gets done quickly and then both Jones and Smith re-sign after the tag money gets traded away and opens back up. Then I can see all that being awfully close to what happens.

Milton is an annoying likely pick at RB but I still feel like he's a little redundant and would sure like something different in that RB2 spot. With him, Pop and Perine you have 3 virtually identical players from a stylistic perspective. I still don't see a guy you turn to if you think you can find an advantage in, say, outside zone. That's why I've become such a fan of Jaylen Wright, but I'd imagine you have him off the board by your pick in the 3rd. You have a tendency to be pretty conservative on the 'available players' list for us. Moreso than me anyway; typically by about a half a round.

[Palangi]

I like it. I’ve really warmed up to Worthy as the pick too.

The one thing I would change is I don’t think the DT from Texas A&M is too redundant with Buggs and Farrell already on roster. I think they look at more of a penetrator to train up behind Chris. Someone like Justin Eboigbe or Gabe Hall.

[Palangi]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'm so close to liking this but I just can't get my head around the idea of 'letting Sneed walk'.

And if you do, it's presumably because you tagged Jones to buy time to work out a deal? Well if you do that and his starting baseline salary for 2024 is $32 million(ish) then there's no way he signs for 3/$84 million. It'll take more than that once you tag him. Which is why you don't tag him, JMHO.

Put a tag/trade of Sneed for a mid/late 2nd and a 4th in there with the thought that the deal gets done quickly and then both Jones and Smith re-sign after the tag money gets traded away and opens back up. Then I can see all that being awfully close to what happens.

Milton is an annoying likely pick at RB but I still feel like he's a little redundant and would sure like something different in that RB2 spot. With him, Pop and Perine you have 3 virtually identical players from a stylistic perspective. I still don't see a guy you turn to if you think you can find an advantage in, say, outside zone. That's why I've become such a fan of Jaylen Wright, but I'd imagine you have him off the board by your pick in the 3rd. You have a tendency to be pretty conservative on the 'available players' list for us. Moreso than me anyway; typically by about a half a round.

Don’t forget they were high on Deneric Prince last offseason. I’d like to see him as the McKinnon replacement. He has really good hands and can run routes. Hopefully he’s learn to block like McKinnon. But he has game changing speed.

And they seem to be interested in Keontay Ingram as a power back.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Palangi

Don’t forget they were high on Deneric Prince last offseason. I’d like to see him as the McKinnon replacement. He has really good hands and can run routes. Hopefully he’s learn to block like McKinnon. But he has game changing speed.

And they seem to be interested in Keontay Ingram as a power back.

Deneric Prince is a poverty Pacheco and not any sort of McKinnon replacement.

Oh, and he was friggen awful.

I personally wouldn't have bothered to keep Prince on the practice squad. He didn't show anything at all back there.

[wachashi]

Originally Posted by Palangi

The one thing I would change is I don’t think the DT from Texas A&M is too redundant with Buggs and Farrell already on roster. I think they look at more of a penetrator to train up behind Chris. Someone like Justin Eboigbe or Gabe Hall.

The coaching staff liked Nnadi and Pennel over Farrell in our biggest games. That says a lot.

Buggs is nothing more than a depth piece if you look at his NFL career.

We will address the NT position beyond Farrell and Buggs either in free agency or the draft.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by wachashi

The coaching staff liked Nnadi and Pennel over Farrell in our biggest games. That says a lot.

Buggs is nothing more than a depth piece if you look at his NFL career.

We will address the NT position beyond Farrell and Buggs either in free agency or the draft.

If my memory serves, they paid Buggs more than the futures minimum to retain him. It does kinda suggest they might have a plan for him. And they played Farrell in the SB at least over Dickerson (they didn't do that against Buffalo so they quickly pivoted after that debacle).

And he played quite well.

I think they have a nice little NT rotation they could build from those two. You won't get a ton, but you don't need a ton from NT in this system. They're just there to take up space and both guys can do that.