Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Red Dawg

Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.

Core of Hill/Hunt/Kelce/Mahomes is locked in for 2019 and 2020. Watkins is only for 2019.

[Reerun_KC]

Originally Posted by Red Dawg

Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.

And replacing them with younger explosive talent.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them.

Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed.

If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants.

So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim.

Good post. Hadn’t seen those numbers on pass rush before.

[RunKC]

Beuhler, I get what you’re saying, but I’m with pugs here. These guys won’t take middling contracts.

If we let all or even 90% of them walk, that would put a tremendous amount of stress on Veach to replace them, which is impossible seeing that they all are FA’s around the same time.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Beuhler, I get what you’re saying, but I’m with pugs here. These guys won’t take middling contracts.

If we let all or even 90% of them walk, that would put a tremendous amount of stress on Veach to replace them, which is impossible seeing that they all are FA’s around the same time.

Agreed. That’s what I’m saying is those guys might need to walk. But Veach is under a bunch of stress now to find dudes that can play with no cap space because the 2 giant ass contracts we have are ****ing us.

[Marcellus]

We can afford to pay Hill and Mahomes and one defensive guy.

I mean you do have to pay someone and the argument to not pay Hill is INSANE, he is as rare a talent as Mahomes.

[Buehler445]

Yeah. I said in the OP the WR group is the one that looked the most promising. And Hill is probably the guy that is the most likely to be a legit elite talent not a flash in the pan.

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

Coincidentally Belichick hasn’t paid WRs top money as far as I know. Moss and Stalworth were on criminally small contracts and the short white guy crew isn’t making big money.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Coincidentally Belichick hasn’t paid WRs top money as far as I know. Moss and Stalworth were on criminally small contracts and the short white guy crew isn’t making big money.

BB paid Gronk top money -- he was the highest paid TE in the NFL for a while.

Let's face it, other than Moss, the Patriots haven't had a WR that was remotely worth top money. Cooks makes it now, but, I mean, does anything think he's a top 5 WR? He's paid like he is, and he's really good, but he'll never wear a Gold Jacket.

And half of the Patriots run with BB was "old NFL", before all these rules changes that make Hill twice as dangerous as he would've been 10-15 years ago.

I think you MUST keep Hill tbh. 25 and entering his prime, with an elite QB. Those are two big pieces to any championship formula.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

BB paid Gronk top money -- he was the highest paid TE in the NFL for a while.

Let's face it, other than Moss, the Patriots haven't had a WR that was remotely worth top money. Cooks makes it now, but, I mean, does anything think he's a top 5 WR? He's paid like he is, and he's really good, but he'll never wear a Gold Jacket.

And half of the Patriots run with BB was "old NFL", before all these rules changes that make Hill twice as dangerous as he would've been 10-15 years ago.

I think you MUST keep Hill tbh. 25 and entering his prime, with an elite QB. Those are two big pieces to any championship formula.

To be fair the Patriots molded the modern NFL with that Moss jagernaut. And they didn’t think it was worth the money then. When everyone else was still thinking Larry ****ing Johnson was the franchise piece.

[shitgoose]

The case for Hill is that he hasn't even fully tapped his potential as a WR. Plus, I've never seen a guy who can sustain the level of play that he does for an entire game. His conditioning is remarkable.

[wazu]

Hill absolutely cannot be let go while he’s still in his twenties. He and Mahomes will get deals making them highest paid at their positions in league history. After that do what you can do, and draft well.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by wazu

Hill absolutely cannot be let go while he’s still in his twenties. He and Mahomes will get deals making them highest paid at their positions in league history. After that do what you can do, and draft well.

I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by notorious

I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.

I’d wager Kelce is on his last contract with KC. He’s making big money now, has concussions, and will be on the downside when his contract expires.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I’d wager Kelce is on his last contract with KC. He’s making big money now, has concussions, and will be on the downside when his contract expires.

Yeah, I was on the fence a little with Kelce. His style of play lends that he will end up on the cart eventually.