Call Your Shot: Who's the Chiefs first pick?

[staylor26]

Rule: You can change your answer up until next Thursday!

This might be the toughest year yet for this. I can see so many different possibilities, especially considering that I think there's a solid chance the Chiefs trade up.

Edit: It's draft day and I'm changing my pick!

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

There's way too much smoke about the Chiefs trading up and/or them targeting a LT. I'm going with a guy that I think could make it into our range, who also has the kind of upside that would have Veach itching to make a move to go get him.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Yea, obviously if you got an offer you can't refuse, that's different. But the Chargers are only one spot back, and much more eager to trade down, so it was always unlikely.

The only way that I could see the Cardinals trading down is if it's to the Giants at 6 and that's only if somehow Maye is there at 4.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Why would they need to trade up?

They wouldn’t but it would be funny to see.

Sorta like when the Bears moved up 1 spot for Trubisky.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Kiimo

Watch more Brian Thomas film. Any other year he'd be the WR1

If the Chiefs have an opportunity to move up and grab him with their extra 3rd they have next year they should sprint up to the podium

Just don't buy it.

Odunze is not a 'special' WR talent. He's just a very good one. "In any other year" Odunze is a pretty ordinary WR1 on the draft board and BTJ is WR2.

Which is still awfully good; a top 12 guy most seasons. But I just do not get this idea that Thomas is going to face some massive outlier drop. If he was truly "WR1 in any other year" than he'd be mentioned in the same breath as Odunze and a pretty likely top 10 pick still.

And I haven't seen that being suggested often, if at all.

[Kiimo]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Why would they need to trade up?

Did a mock draft podcast last night and spent a great deal of time grandstanding on my soapbox why Washington should draft Alt with the second pick.


Here's how it went down with some trades:

1 Bears Caleb Williams
2 Commanders Joe Alt
3 Patriots Drake Maye
4 Cardinals Marvin Harrison Jr
5 Vikings JJ McCarthy
6 Giants Malik Nabers
7 Jets Jayden Daniels
8 Chargers Rome Odunze
9 Bears Taliese Fuaga
10 Titans Olu Fashanu
11 Falcons Laiatu Latu
12 Broncos Dallas Turner
13 Raiders Terrion Arnold
14 Saints JC Latham
15 Lions Quinyon Mitchell
16 Chiefs Brian Thomas Jr.
17 Dolphins Brock Bowers
18 Bengals Byron Murphy II
19 Rams Johnny Newton
20 Steelers Troy Fautanu
21 Jags Jared Verse
22 Eagles Cooper DeJean
23 Chargers Jackson Power Johnson
24 Cowboys Ariaius Mims
25 Packers Tyler Guyton
26 Buccaneers Nate Wiggins
27 Cardinals Darius Robinson
28 Bills Chop Robinson
29 Colts Adonai Mitchell
30 Ravens Graham Barton
31 49ers Xavier Worthy
32 Seahawks Micheal Penix Jr

my picks bolded, come at me bro

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Yea, obviously if you got an offer you can't refuse, that's different. But the Chargers are only one spot back, and much more eager to trade down, so it was always unlikely.

And it's pretty damn obvious that the Cardinals aren't going to go with QB at 4.

So the only reason you're eager to trade up with them is for a QB and that's only if they can convince you that someone else is happy to do so and jump the Chargers spot at 5.

Which is just not a very easy sell. You could try it, but if I'm another GM I'm gonna call that bluff 100 times out of 100 and continue working with the Chargers on a cheaper price.

[Wallymo]

Originally Posted by ModSocks

It makes the most sense. There's just so much damn talent at WR that we could honestly take a guy in the 3rd and STILL be hyped about his potential.

St. Brown, who got paid today, was a fourth rounder. How many fourth-round left tackles get paid? So much variance at receiver.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Kiimo

Did a mock draft podcast last night and spent a great deal of time grandstanding on my soapbox why Washington should draft Alt with the second pick.


Here's how it went down with some trades:

"Brian Thomas Jr would be WR1 in any other draft"

{proceeds to draft him after a likely OG}

Something don't add up here...

[Mr. Wizard]

Barton or Guyton

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And it's pretty damn obvious that the Cardinals aren't going to go with QB at 4.

So the only reason you're eager to trade up with them is for a QB and that's only if they can convince you that someone else is happy to do so and jump the Chargers spot at 5.

Which is just not a very easy sell. You could try it, but if I'm another GM I'm gonna call that bluff 100 times out of 100 and continue working with the Chargers on a cheaper price.

Exactly.

[Kiimo]

Especially if the rumor is tons of teams are moving up for OT

[Kiimo]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Just don't buy it.

Odunze is not a 'special' WR talent. He's just a very good one. "In any other year" Odunze is a pretty ordinary WR1 on the draft board and BTJ is WR2.

Which is still awfully good; a top 12 guy most seasons. But I just do not get this idea that Thomas is going to face some massive outlier drop. If he was truly "WR1 in any other year" than he'd be mentioned in the same breath as Odunze and a pretty likely top 10 pick still.

And I haven't seen that being suggested often, if at all.

Wow I disagree completely I think Rome Odunze is my #1 WR in this draft

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Exactly.

I do wonder how often teams try that.

I forget sometimes that these are REALLY closed systems; it's a tiny group of guys that work together.

I get pissy sometimes when GMs in any sport make a bad deal and the response is "Hey, he could only get what he could get..."

My response is "Hey, his job is to build a market..."

I bluff with friggen rags every week. I've had absolute garbage cases where I've ended up walking away with more than I should've even plead, let alone been paid out on. But my damn job is to convince the other guys otherwise and I can typically do a nice job of it. So that's the chair I operate from.

That said - if I only worked with 31 other guys, how long would that actually work? How many times could I pull it off before the other 31 know I might just be full of shit. And if I do that, have I torched so much goodwill in the process that I'm now toxic - so is the juice actually worth the squeeze?

I feel like that may be the point Howie Roseman is reaching. It seems like other teams may be wary to deal with him because he's starting to develop a bit of a reputation for being full of shit.

I don't think Veach has because frankly I don't think he tries. I don't think he makes those bluffs to build a market. I think he asks around and takes the best offer he gets. I wonder if its not a philosophical difference - it isn't that he couldn't build a market (false or otherwise) but rather he elects not to in order to try to keep dialogue a little more cordial and transparent. Which would make sense - I know when I work in Oklahoma for instance, the cards are on the table during the first phonecall. Because that's just the best way to work out there.

In St. Louis? The **** if you're gonna know what I'm willing to do. Because I know you're lying as well.

It's a long way of saying that the NFL trade market has to be a lot weirder than most of us realize because of how insular it is. It's just a really small fraternity of players and it gets smaller still when you start to weed out direct competitors who just aren't likely to work with you regardless.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Kiimo

Wow I disagree completely I think Rome Odunze is my #1 WR in this draft

{drafts him after the other 2 guys in his mock draft podcast}

And again, somethin' about the math ain't adding up for me here...

[Kiimo]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

{drafts him after the other 2 guys in his mock draft podcast}

And again, somethin' about the math ain't adding up for me here...

there were four people in that draft. Do you see how some picks are bolded and then where I said that my picks are the bold ones

[Bump]

all I know is that if Veach is feeling a trade up, get excited! It's always worked out great in the 1st.